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1. Using Systems Thinking to Manage Tourist-Based Nutrient Pollution in Belizean Cayes

   https://doi.org/10.3390/systems13070544  

   Delgado, Daniel A; McAlister, Martha M; Webb, W Alex; Prouty, Christine; Ergas, Sarina J; Trotz, Maya A (July 2025, Systems)

   Tourism offers many economic benefits but can have long-lasting ecological effects when improperly managed. Tourism can cause overwhelming pressure on wastewater treatment systems, as in Belize, where some of the over 400 small islands (cayes) that were once temporary sites for fishermen have become popular tourist destinations. An overabundance of nitrogen, in part as a result of incomplete wastewater treatment, threatens human health and ecosystem services. The tourism industry is a complex and dynamic industry with many sectors and stakeholders with conflicting goals. In this study, a systems thinking approach was adopted to study the dynamic interactions between stakeholders and the environment at Laughing Bird Caye National Park in Belize. The project centered on nutrient discharges from the caye’s onsite wastewater treatment system. An archetype analysis approach was applied to frame potential solutions to nutrient pollution and understand potential behaviors over time. “Out of control” and “Underachievement” were identified as system archetypes; “Shifting the Burden” and ‘‘Limits to Success’’ were used to model specific cases. Based on these results, upgrading of the wastewater treatment system should be performed concurrently with investments in the user experience of the toilets, education on the vulnerability of the treatment system and ecosystem, and controls on the number of daily tourists. 

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2. International Tourism in the Arctic under COVID-19: A Telecoupling Analysis of Iceland

   https://doi.org/10.3390/su142215237  

   Remer, Michele; Liu, Jianguo (November 2022, Sustainability)

   During the COVID-19 pandemic, tourism slowed down as the world went into lockdown. This pause in tourism provides a unique opportunity to analyze the environmental and socioeconomic effects of tourism by comparing tourism participation levels before, during, and after the pandemic restrictions. We examined tourism in Iceland, an island nation in the Arctic where international tourists vastly outnumber residents. Specifically, we systematically analyzed the materials, energy, tourist, and information flows, as well as the causes, effects, and agents of tourism in Iceland using the framework of telecoupling (human-nature interactions over distances). Results show that the U.S., U.K., and Nordic countries sent the highest numbers of tourists to Iceland. Flows of tourists to Iceland were tracked based on international flights and cruise ships, with Iceland’s tourism industry returning close to pre-pandemic levels in 2022 for air arrivals, while cruise ship tourism was slower in returning to pre-pandemic levels. Agents in the Icelandic tourism industry include government entities, local businesses, tour operators, and many others. There are diverse causes for tourism in Iceland, such as the demand for nature-based tourism and a cooler climate. International tourism in Iceland had both substantial environmental effects (CO2 emissions, damage to sensitive areas, etc.) and socioeconomic effects (e.g., increases in GDP and jobs). Many effects also spillover to the rest of the world as increases in CO2 emissions contribute to global climate change. Tourism is also expected to continue increasing after Iceland’s 2022 marketing launch of “Iceland Together in Progress.” Since Iceland has had such a strong tourism rebound, other countries around the world (especially other Arctic countries) that are looking to increase their tourism can gain insights from Iceland. However, it is important to make tourism more sustainable (e.g., reduction in CO2 emissions). 

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3. Route Optimization for Ships Using Ammonia-Based Fuel: A Hybrid Genetic Algorithm–Particle Swarm Optimization Approach

   https://doi.org/10.1177/03611981251338724  

   Wang, Jing; Huynh, Nathan; Dougal, Roger A; Mustain, William E (June 2025, Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board)

   In 2018, the International Maritime Organization adopted a plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from ships. As a result, ocean carriers and cruise lines are exploring alternative fuels, such as ammonia, which offers zero CO₂emissions. Understanding ammonia-based fuel’s impact on range, speed, and fuel logistics can help companies assess its benefits and limitations. To address this, a mixed-integer non-linear programming model is developed to determine the optimal ships’ routes with the objective of minimizing the total travel time while considering factors such as ship speeds, refueling time, and the non-linear fuel consumption rates. A unique aspect of this study is the consideration of a group of ships with different origins and destinations. To solve the non-linear and NP-hard model, a hybrid genetic algorithm–particle swarm optimization algorithm is developed. The proposed model and meta-heuristics are demonstrated using an actual network consisting of ports around the world. Numerical results from a full factorial design with three factors (number of ships, number of origins, and number of destinations) comparing the travel time differences between using ammonia and conventional fuel indicate that NH₃-fueled ships generally experience longer travel times than jet-propulsion fuel 8-fueled ships because of NH₃’s lower energy density and more frequent refueling requirements. On average, the increase in total travel time is less than 20%. This study serves as a foundation for decision-makers who must also consider additional factors such as economic feasibility, infrastructure costs, environmental impact, and regulatory requirements when assessing ammonia’s viability as an alternative fuel for fleet-wide adoption. 

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4. Enhancing Resilience through Port Coalitions in Maritime Freight Networks 2020

   https://doi.org/10.18739/a2w37kx5g  

   Li, Wenjie; Miller-Hooks, Elise (January 2022, NSF Arctic Data Center)

   Reliable port services are key to maritime freight transport system performance. These systems are vulnerable to disasters of anthropogenic or natural cause, which can significantly impact port capacity, handling times and overall system performance. To improve resilience of individual ports, strategies involving capacity sharing and protective cross-port investments through coalition formation are proposed. This collaborative port protection and investment approach to improve individual and system-level port resilience is formulated as an Equilibrium Problem with Equilibrium Constraints. That is, the program is bi-level with multiple players in the upper level and a common liner shipping problem in the lower level. Its solution is obtained at a Nash equilibrium wherein no port stakeholder can achieve better performance by unilaterally changing its investment plan. A Stackelberg equilibrium between upper and lower levels infers that best investment decisions are made given competition between ports and the market’s response to improvements. The benefits of regional coalitions in this co-opetitive (competitive and collaborative) environment in terms of port and system resilience, port- and system-level demand fulfilment rates and return on investment are investigated from multiple perspectives, including the perspectives of shippers, port owners and the larger shipping network. With insights gained through study of the proposed coalition policies, this work aims to facilitate port authorities in making decisions on port capacity expansion, infrastructure investment and forming strategic partnerships. Shipping companies may also take into consideration the ability of a port to provide service under disruption events when choosing which ports to include in their service loops. 

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5. Traditional Nomadism Offers Adaptive Capacity to Northern Mongolian Geohazards

   https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards4030019  

   Moreau, Gabrielle L.; Nyland, Kelsey E.; Kuklina, Vera V. (September 2023, GeoHazards)

   Mongolia’s northernmost province, Khövsgöl Aimag, famous for its massive Lake Khövsgöl set among the mountainous steppe, taiga, and tundra forests, increasingly attracts both domestic and international tourists. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, Mongolia received over 500,000 tourists annually. The aimag is also home to Indigenous, nomadic Dukha reindeer herders and semi-nomadic Darkhad cattle herders. Using a multidisciplinary approach, this study uses an analytical hierarchy process to map areas in Khövsgöl Aimag, where the infrastructure, including buildings, dwellings, formal and informal roads, and pastureland, is subject to geohazards. The hazards of interest to this mapping analysis include mass wasting, flooding, and permafrost thawing, which threaten roads, pastures, houses, and other community infrastructure in Khövsgöl Aimag. Based on the integrated infrastructure risk map, an estimated 23% of the aimag is at high to very high risk for localized geohazards. After a discussion of the results informed by the interviews, mobile ethnographies, and local and national land use policies, we postulate that communities exercising more traditional nomadic lifestyles with higher mobility are more resilient to these primarily localized geohazards. 

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