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Abstract Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID‐19) is spreading around the world, and the United States has become the epicenter of the global pandemic. However, little is known about the causes behind the large spatial variability of the COVID‐19 incidence. Here we use path analysis model to quantify the influence of four potential factors (urban vegetation, population density, air temperature, and baseline infection) in shaping the highly heterogeneous transmission patterns of COVID‐19 across the United States. Our results show that urban vegetation can slow down the spread of COVID‐19, and each 1% increase in the percentage of urban vegetation will lead to a 2.6% decrease in cumulative COVID‐19 cases. Additionally, the mediating role of urban vegetation suggests that urban vegetation could reduce increases in cumulative COVID‐19 cases induced by population density and baseline infection. Our findings highlight the importance of urban vegetation in strengthening urban resilience to public health emergencies.
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Asymmetric Relationship between Ambient Air Temperature and Incidence of COVID-19 in the Human Population
The complexity of transmission of COVID-19 in the human population cannot be overstated. Although major transmission routes of COVID-19 remain as human-to-human interactions, understanding the possible role of climatic and weather processes in accelerating such interactions is still a challenge. The majority of studies on the transmission of this disease have suggested a positive association between a decrease in ambient air temperature and an increase in human cases. Using data from 19 early epicenters, we show that the relationship between the incidence of COVID-19 and temperature is a complex function of prevailing climatic conditions influencing human behavior that govern virus transmission dynamics. We note that under a dry (low-moisture) environment, notably at dew point temperatures below 0°C, the incidence of the disease was highest. Prevalence of the virus in the human population, when ambient air temperatures were higher than 24°C or lower than 17°C, was hypothesized to be a function of the interaction between humans and the built or ambient environment. An ambient air temperature range of 17 to 24°C was identified, within which virus transmission appears to decrease, leading to a reduction in COVID-19 human cases.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2001664
- PAR ID:
- 10399604
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
- ISSN:
- 0002-9637
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.21-0328
