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Conformal prediction (CP) is an important tool for distribution-free predictive uncertainty quantification. Yet, a major challenge is to balance computational efficiency and prediction accuracy, particularly for multiple predictions. We propose Leave-One-Out Stable Conformal Prediction (LOO-StabCP), a novel method to speed up full conformal using algorithmic stability without sample splitting. By leveraging leave-one-out stability, our method is much faster in handling a large number of prediction requests compared to existing method RO-StabCP based on replace-one stability. We derived stability bounds for several popular machine learning tools: regularized loss minimization (RLM) and stochastic gradient descent (SGD), as well as kernel method, neural networks and bagging. Our method is theoretically justified and demonstrates superior numerical performance on synthetic and real-world data. We applied our method to a screening problem, where its effective exploitation of training data led to improved test power compared to state-of-the-art method based on split conformal.
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On Leave-One-Out Conditional Mutual Information For Generalization
We derive information theoretic generalization bounds for supervised learning algorithms based on a new measure of leave-one-out conditional mutual information (loo-CMI). Contrary to other CMI bounds, which are black-box bounds that do not exploit the structure of the problem and may be hard to evaluate in practice, our loo-CMI bounds can be computed easily and can be interpreted in connection to other notions such as classical leave-one-out cross-validation, stability of the optimization algorithm, and the geometry of the loss-landscape. It applies both to the output of training algorithms as well as their predictions. We empirically validate the quality of the bound by evaluating its predicted generalization gap in scenarios for deep learning. In particular, our bounds are non-vacuous on large-scale image-classification tasks.
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- PAR ID:
- 10400455
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS)
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
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