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Title: Trials and Terminations: Learning from Competitors’ R&D Failures
I analyze project continuation decisions where firms may resolve uncertainty through news about competitors’ research and development (R&D) failures, as well as through their own results. I examine the tradeoffs and interactions between product-market competition and technological learning from parallel R&D projects. Leveraging the biopharmaceutical industry’s unique characteristics to overcome barriers to measuring project-level responses, I use a difference-in-differences strategy to evaluate how competitor exit news alters a firm’s own project discontinuation decisions. The findings reveal that technological learning dominates competition effects. Firms are most sensitive to competitor failure news from within the same market and same technology area—more than doubling their propensity to terminate drug development projects in the wake of this type of information. Finally, I explore how levels of competition, uncertainty, and opportunities to learn moderate the response to competitor failure news. This paper was accepted by Joshua Gans, business strategy.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1564368
PAR ID:
10400563
Author(s) / Creator(s):
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Management Science
Volume:
67
Issue:
9
ISSN:
0025-1909
Page Range / eLocation ID:
5525 to 5548
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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