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Abstract Climate and land use change are two of the primary threats to global biodiversity; however, each species within a community may respond differently to these facets of global change. Although it is typically assumed that species use the habitat that is advantageous for survival and reproduction, anthropogenic changes to the environment can create ecological traps, making it critical to assess both habitat selection (e.g. where species congregate on the landscape) and the influence of selected habitats on the demographic processes that govern population dynamics.We used a long‐term (1958–2011), large‐scale, multi‐species dataset for waterfowl that spans the United States and Canada to estimate species‐specific responses to climate and land use variables in a landscape that has undergone significant environmental change across space and time. We first estimated the effects of change in climate and land use variables on habitat selection and population dynamics for nine species. We then hypothesized that species‐specific responses to environmental change would scale with life‐history traits, specifically: longevity, nesting phenology and female breeding site fidelity.We observed species‐level heterogeneity in the demographic and habitat selection responses to climate and land use change, which would complicate community‐level habitat management. Our work highlights the importance of multi‐species monitoring and community‐level analysis, even among closely related species.We detected several relationships between life‐history traits, particularly nesting phenology, and species' responses to environmental change. One species, the early‐nesting northern pintail (Anas acuta), was consistently at the extreme end of responses to land use and climate predictors and has been a species of conservation concern since their population began to decline in the 1980s. They, and the blue‐winged teal, also demonstrated a positive habitat selection response to the proportion of cropland on the landscape that simultaneously reduced abundance the following year, indicative of susceptibility to ecological traps.By distilling the diversity of species' responses to environmental change within a community, our methodological approach and findings will help improve predictions of community responses to global change and can inform multi‐species management and conservation plans in dynamic landscapes that are based on simple tenets of life‐history theory.
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Dynamic distribution modelling of the swamp tigertail dragonfly Synthemis eustalacta (Odonata: Anisoptera: Synthemistidae) over a 20‐year bushfire regime
Abstract Intensity and severity of bushfires in Australia have increased over the past few decades due to climate change, threatening habitat loss for numerous species. Although the impact of bushfires on vertebrates is well‐documented, the corresponding effects on insect taxa are rarely examined, although they are responsible for key ecosystem functions and services. Understanding the effects of bushfire seasons on insect distributions could elucidate long‐term impacts and patterns of ecosystem recovery.Here, the authors investigated the effects of recent bushfires, land‐cover change, and climatic variables on the distribution of a common and endemic dragonfly, the swamp tigertail (Synthemis eustalacta) (Burmeister, 1839), which inhabits forests that have recently undergone severe burning. The authors used a temporally dynamic species distribution modelling approach that incorporated 20 years of community‐science data on dragonfly occurrence and predictors based on fire, land cover, and climate to make yearly predictions of suitability. The authors also compared this to an approach that combines multiple temporally static models that use annual data.The authors found that for both approaches, fire‐specific variables had negligible importance for the models, while the percentage of tree and non‐vegetative cover were most important. The authors also found that the dynamic model outperformed the static ones, based on cross‐validation omission rate. Model predictions indicated temporal variation in area and spatial arrangement of suitable habitat, but no patterns of habitat expansion, contraction, or shifting.These results highlight not only the efficacy of dynamic modelling to capture spatiotemporal variables such as vegetation cover for an endemic insect species, but also provide a novel approach to mapping species distributions with sparse locality records.
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- PAR ID:
- 10401136
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley-Blackwell
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Ecological Entomology
- Volume:
- 48
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 0307-6946
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: p. 209-225
- Size(s):
- p. 209-225
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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