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Title: Constraining the Varied Response of Northern Hemisphere Winter Circulation Waviness to Climate Change
Abstract

While a large latitudinal displacement of the westerly jet brings about disproportionate socioeconomic impacts over Northern Hemisphere midlatitude continents, it is not well understood as to whether the winter circulation will become wavier or less in response to climate change. Here, using observations and large ensembles of climate models, we show that changes in atmospheric waviness can be estimated from the optimal structures of the westerly jet for wavier circulation, which are obtained from an advection‐diffusion model. Thus, the changes in westerly jet structure in climate models under climate change provide a physical constraint on changes in atmospheric waviness, indicating that the North Atlantic wave activity will experience a robust decline in a warmer climate, while future North Pacific wave activity is obscured by model uncertainty rather than internal variability. These findings highlight the changes to jet stream structure as a constraint for regional circulation waviness in a changing climate.

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Award ID(s):
1832842
NSF-PAR ID:
10401857
Author(s) / Creator(s):
 ;  ;  ;  ;  
Publisher / Repository:
DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume:
50
Issue:
6
ISSN:
0094-8276
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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