This dataset contains output from a prescribed model experiment conducted to investigate the impact of snow cover loss over North America on summer atmospheric circulation. We utilized the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Community Earth System Model version 2.2 to complete a 10-year control simulation. We then modified the land-surface restart files for May 1st of each year of the control period by reducing the snow cover over North America to zero. Using these modified files, we then completed a reduced snow simulation by rerunning three-month simulations from May through July for each of the ten years. This dataset contains both the 10-year control simulation as well as the May–July “no-snow” simulations for each year. More details about the experimental setup and example output can be found in the following publication: Preece, J.R., Mote, T.L., Cohen, J. et al. Summer atmospheric circulation over Greenland in response to Arctic amplification and diminished spring snow cover. Nat Commun 14, 3759 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39466-6 
                        more » 
                        « less   
                    
                            
                            Summer atmospheric circulation over Greenland in response to Arctic amplification and diminished spring snow cover
                        
                    
    
            Abstract The exceptional atmospheric conditions that have accelerated Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss in recent decades have been repeatedly recognized as a possible dynamical response to Arctic amplification. Here, we present evidence of two potentially synergistic mechanisms linking high-latitude warming to the observed increase in Greenland blocking. Consistent with a prominent hypothesis associating Arctic amplification and persistent weather extremes, we show that the summer atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic has become wavier and link this wavier flow to more prevalent Greenland blocking. While a concomitant decline in terrestrial snow cover has likely contributed to this mechanism by further amplifying warming at high latitudes, we also show that there is a direct stationary Rossby wave response to low spring North American snow cover that enforces an anomalous anticyclone over Greenland, thus helping to anchor the ridge over Greenland in this wavier atmospheric state. 
        more » 
        « less   
        
    
    
                            - PAR ID:
- 10425215
- Publisher / Repository:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Nature Communications
- Volume:
- 14
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2041-1723
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
- 
            
- 
            Peter L. Langen (Ed.)Arctic Amplification is a fundamental feature of past, present, and modelled future climate. However, the causes of this “amplification” within Earth’s climate system are not fully understood. To date, warming in the Arctic has been most pronounced in autumn and winter seasons, with this trend predicted to continue based on model projections of future climate. Nevertheless, the mechanisms by which this will take place are numerous, interconnected. and complex. Will future Arctic Amplification be primarily driven by local, within-Arctic processes, or will external forces play a greater role in contributing to changing climate in this region? Motivated by this uncertainty in future Arctic climate, this review seeks to evaluate several of the key atmospheric circulation processes important to the ongoing discussion of Arctic amplification, focusing primarily on processes in the troposphere. Both local and remote drivers of Arctic amplification are considered, with specific focus given to high-latitude atmospheric blocking, poleward moisture transport, and tropical-high latitude subseasonal teleconnections. Impacts of circulation variability and moisture transport on sea ice, ice sheet surface mass balance, snow cover, and other surface cryospheric variables are reviewed and discussed. The future evolution of Arctic amplification is discussed in terms of projected future trends in atmospheric blocking and moisture transport and their coupling with the cryosphere. As high-latitude atmospheric circulation is strongly influenced by lower-latitude processes, the future state of tropical-to-Arctic teleconnections is also considered.more » « less
- 
            Abstract Consensus on the cause of recent midlatitude circulation changes toward a wavier manner in the Northern Hemisphere has not been reached, albeit a number of studies collectively suggest that this phenomenon is driven by global warming and associated Arctic amplification. Here, through a fingerprint analysis of various global simulations and a tropical heating-imposed experiment, we suggest that the suppression of tropical convection along the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone induced by sea surface temperature (SST) cooling trends over the tropical Eastern Pacific contributed to the increased summertime midlatitude waviness in the past 40 years through the generation of a Rossby-wave-train propagating within the jet waveguide and the reduced north-south temperature gradient. This perspective indicates less of an influence from the Arctic amplification on the observed mid-latitude wave amplification than what was previously estimated. This study also emphasizes the need to better predict the tropical Pacific SST variability in order to project the summer jet waviness and consequent weather extremes.more » « less
- 
            Under rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the Arctic exhibits amplified warming relative to the globe. This Arctic amplification is a defining feature of global warming. However, the Arctic is also home to large internal variability, which can make the detection of a forced climate response difficult. Here we use results from seven model large ensembles, which have different rates of Arctic warming and sea ice loss, to assess the time of emergence of anthropogenically-forced Arctic amplification. We find that this time of emergence occurs at the turn of the century in all models, ranging across the models by a decade from 1994–2005. We also assess transient changes in this amplified signal across the 21st century and beyond. Over the 21st century, the projections indicate that the maximum Arctic warming will transition from fall to winter due to sea ice reductions that extend further into the fall. Additionally, the magnitude of the annual amplification signal declines over the 21st century associated in part with a weakening albedo feedback strength. In a simulation that extends to the 23rd century, we find that as sea ice cover is completely lost, there is little further reduction in the surface albedo and Arctic amplification saturates at a level that is reduced from its 21st century value.more » « less
- 
            Arctic warming may lead to altered occurrences and strengthening of extreme weather events. Arctic rain-on-snow (ROS) events are of a particular interest in this regard. ROS conditions generate hazards for the transportation sector, ranging from flooding and icing to airport closures, and can severely damage infrastructure through wet-snow avalanches. ROS events, and the resulting ice growth, interfere with foraging by reindeer, caribou, and musk oxen, heavily relied upon species among Indigenous peoples. There have been documented mass starvations of these animals due to ROS. This study addresses the meteorological setups of Arctic ROS events. We focus on cases for Iqaluit, Nunavut, in Canada and Nuuk, Greenland, using ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis, surface weather station data, and atmospheric soundings. At the synoptic scale, we find that blocking patterns play leading roles in ROS initiation, with atmospheric rivers contributing to both direct and indirect effects. Cyclone-induced low-level jets and resultant “warm noses” of higher air temperatures and elevated moisture transport are other key features in ROS generation. We conclude by postulating how climate change may alter the severity and frequency of Arctic ROS events, drawing on this improved knowledge of weather patterns leading to ROS conditions.more » « less
 An official website of the United States government
An official website of the United States government 
				
			 
					 
					
