In the absence of pharmaceutical interventions, social distancing and lockdown have been key options for controlling new or reemerging respiratory infectious disease outbreaks. The timely implementation of these interventions is vital for effectively controlling and safeguarding the economy.Motivated by the COVID-19 pandemic, we evaluated whether, when, and to what level lockdowns are necessary to minimize epidemic and economic burdens of new disease outbreaks. We formulated the question as a sequential decision-making Markov Decision Process and solved it using deep Q-network algorithm. We evaluated the question under two objective functions: a 2-objective function to minimize economic burden and hospital capacity violations, suitable for diseases with severe health risks but with minimal death, and a 3-objective function that additionally minimizes the number of deaths, suitable for diseases that have high risk of mortality.A key feature of the model is that we evaluated the above questions in the context of two-geographical jurisdictions that interact through travel but make autonomous and independent decisions, evaluating under cross-jurisdictional cooperation and non-cooperation. In the 2-objective function under cross-jurisdictional cooperation, the optimal policy was to aim for shutdowns at 50 and 25% per day. Though this policy avoided hospital capacity violations, the shutdowns extended until a large proportion of the population reached herd immunity. Delays in initiating this optimal policy or non-cooperation from an outside jurisdiction required shutdowns at a higher level of 75% per day, thus adding to economic burdens. In the 3-objective function, the optimal policy under cross-jurisdictional cooperation was to aim for shutdowns of up to 75% per day to prevent deaths by reducing infected cases. This optimal policy continued for the entire duration of the simulation, suggesting that, until pharmaceutical interventions such as treatment or vaccines become available, contact reductions through physical distancing would be necessary to minimize deaths. Deviating from this policy increased the number of shutdowns and led to several deaths.In summary, we present a decision-analytic methodology for identifying optimal lockdown strategy under the context of interactions between jurisdictions that make autonomous and independent decisions. The numerical analysis outcomes are intuitive and, as expected, serve as proof of the feasibility of such a model. Our sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the optimal policy exhibits robustness to minor alterations in the transmission rate, yet shows sensitivity to more substantial deviations. This finding underscores the dynamic nature of epidemic parameters, thereby emphasizing the necessity for models trained across a diverse range of values to ensure effective policy-making.
more »
« less
The University of Michigan Implements a Hub-and-Spoke Design to Accommodate Social Distancing in the Campus Bus System Under COVID-19 Restrictions
The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has led to significant challenges for schools and communities during the pandemic, requiring policy makers to ensure both safety and operational feasibility. In this paper, we develop mixed-integer programming models and simulation tools to redesign routes and bus schedules for operating a real university campus bus system during the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose a hub-and-spoke design and utilize real data of student activities to identify hub locations and bus stops to be used in the new routes. To reduce disease transmission via expiratory aerosol, we design new bus routes that are shorter than 15 minutes to travel and operate using at most 50% seat capacity and the same number of buses before the pandemic. We sample a variety of scenarios that cover variations of peak demand, social distancing requirements, and bus breakdowns to demonstrate the system resiliency of the new routes and schedules via simulation. The new bus routes were implemented and used during the academic year 2020–2021 to ensure social distancing and short travel time. Our approach can be generalized to redesign public transit systems with a social distancing requirement to reduce passengers’ infection risk. History: This paper was refereed. This article has been selected for inclusion in the Special Issue on Analytics Remedies to COVID-19. Funding: This work was supported by the National Science Foundation [Grant CMMI-2041745] and the University of Michigan, College of Engineering.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 2041745
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10404082
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- INFORMS Journal on Applied Analytics
- Volume:
- 52
- Issue:
- 6
- ISSN:
- 2644-0865
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 539 to 552
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
more » « less
Abstract Despite COVID-19 vaccination programs, the threat of new SARS-CoV-2 strains and continuing pockets of transmission persists. While many U.S. universities replaced their traditional nine-day spring 2021 break with multiple breaks of shorter duration, the effects these schedules have on reducing COVID-19 incidence remains unclear. The main objective of this study is to quantify the impact of alternative break schedules on cumulative COVID-19 incidence on university campuses. Using student mobility data and Monte Carlo simulations of returning infectious student size, we developed a compartmental susceptible-exposed-infectious-asymptomatic-recovered (SEIAR) model to simulate transmission dynamics among university students. As a case study, four alternative spring break schedules were derived from a sample of universities and evaluated. Across alternative multi-break schedules, the median percent reduction of total semester COVID-19 incidence, relative to a traditional nine-day break, ranged from 2 to 4% (for 2% travel destination prevalence) and 8–16% (for 10% travel destination prevalence). The maximum percent reduction from an alternate break schedule was estimated to be 37.6%. Simulation results show that adjusting academic calendars to limit student travel can reduce disease burden. Insights gleaned from our simulations could inform policies regarding appropriate planning of schedules for upcoming semesters upon returning to in-person teaching modalities.
-
COVID-19, caused by SARS-CoV-2, is now a global pandemic disease. This outbreak has affected every aspect of life including work, leisure, and interaction with technology. Governments around the world have issued orders for travel bans, social distancing, and lockdown to control the spread of the virus and prevent strain on hospitals. This paper explores potential applications for radar-based non-contact remote respiration sensing technology that may help to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, and outlines potential advantages that may also help to reduce the spread of the virus. Applications arising from recent developments in the state of the art for transceiver and signal processing technologies will be discussed along associated technical implications. These applications include remote breathing rate monitoring, continuous identity authentication, occupancy detection, and hand gesture recognition. This paper also highlights future research directions that must be explored further to bring this innovative non-contact sensor technology into real-world implementation.more » « less
-
Social distancing can reduce the infection rates in respiratory pandemics such as COVID-19. Traffic intersections are particularly suitable for monitoring and evaluation of social distancing behavior in metropolises. Hence, in this paper, we propose and evaluate a real-time privacy-preserving social distancing analysis system (B-SDA), which uses bird’s-eye view video recordings of pedestrians who cross traffic intersections. We devise algorithms for video pre-processing, object detection, and tracking which are rooted in the known computer-vision and deep learning techniques, but modified to address the problem of detecting very small objects/pedestrians captured by a highly elevated camera. We propose a method for incorporating pedestrian grouping for detection of social distancing violations, which achieves 0.92 F1 score. B-SDA is used to compare pedestrian behavior in pre-pandemic and during-pandemic videos in uptown Manhattan, showing that the social distancing violation rate of 15.6% during the pandemic is notably lower than 31.4% prepandemic baseline. Keywords—Social distancing, Object detection, Smart city, Testbedsmore » « less
-
Social distancing can reduce the infection rates in respiratory pandemics such as COVID-19. Traffic intersections are particularly suitable for monitoring and evaluation of social distancing behavior in metropolises. Hence, in this paper, we propose and evaluate a real-time privacy-preserving social distancing analysis system (B-SDA), which uses bird’s-eye view video recordings of pedestrians who cross traffic intersections. We devise algorithms for video pre-processing, object detection, and tracking which are rooted in the known computer-vision and deep learning techniques, but modified to address the problem of detecting very small objects/pedestrians captured by a highly elevated camera. We propose a method for incorporating pedestrian grouping for detection of social distancing violations, which achieves 0.92 F1 score. B-SDA is used to compare pedestrian behavior in pre-pandemic and during-pandemic videos in uptown Manhattan, showing that the social distancing violation rate of 15.6% during the pandemic is notably lower than 31.4% prepandemic baseline.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1287/inte.2022.1131
