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The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has led to significant challenges for schools and communities during the pandemic, requiring policy makers to ensure both safety and operational feasibility. In this paper, we develop mixed-integer programming models and simulation tools to redesign routes and bus schedules for operating a real university campus bus system during the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose a hub-and-spoke design and utilize real data of student activities to identify hub locations and bus stops to be used in the new routes. To reduce disease transmission via expiratory aerosol, we design new bus routes that are shorter than 15 minutes to travel and operate using at most 50% seat capacity and the same number of buses before the pandemic. We sample a variety of scenarios that cover variations of peak demand, social distancing requirements, and bus breakdowns to demonstrate the system resiliency of the new routes and schedules via simulation. The new bus routes were implemented and used during the academic year 2020–2021 to ensure social distancing and short travel time. Our approach can be generalized to redesign public transit systems with a social distancing requirement to reduce passengers’ infection risk. History: This paper was refereed. This article has been selected for inclusion in the Special Issue on Analytics Remedies to COVID-19. Funding: This work was supported by the National Science Foundation [Grant CMMI-2041745] and the University of Michigan, College of Engineering.
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Effectiveness of alternative semester break schedules on reducing COVID-19 incidence on college campuses
Abstract Despite COVID-19 vaccination programs, the threat of new SARS-CoV-2 strains and continuing pockets of transmission persists. While many U.S. universities replaced their traditional nine-day spring 2021 break with multiple breaks of shorter duration, the effects these schedules have on reducing COVID-19 incidence remains unclear. The main objective of this study is to quantify the impact of alternative break schedules on cumulative COVID-19 incidence on university campuses. Using student mobility data and Monte Carlo simulations of returning infectious student size, we developed a compartmental susceptible-exposed-infectious-asymptomatic-recovered (SEIAR) model to simulate transmission dynamics among university students. As a case study, four alternative spring break schedules were derived from a sample of universities and evaluated. Across alternative multi-break schedules, the median percent reduction of total semester COVID-19 incidence, relative to a traditional nine-day break, ranged from 2 to 4% (for 2% travel destination prevalence) and 8–16% (for 10% travel destination prevalence). The maximum percent reduction from an alternate break schedule was estimated to be 37.6%. Simulation results show that adjusting academic calendars to limit student travel can reduce disease burden. Insights gleaned from our simulations could inform policies regarding appropriate planning of schedules for upcoming semesters upon returning to in-person teaching modalities.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1951793
- PAR ID:
- 10362532
- Publisher / Repository:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Scientific Reports
- Volume:
- 12
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2045-2322
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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