A process‐oriented diagnostic (POD) is introduced to measure the thermodynamic sensitivity of convection in climate models. The physical basis for this POD is the observed tropical precipitation‐buoyancy relationship. Fast timescale precipitation and thermodynamic profiles over oceans are POD inputs; these are used to evaluate model precipitation sensitivities to lower‐tropospheric measures of subsaturation (SUBSATL) and undilute conditional instability. The POD is used to diagnose 24 coupled model inter‐comparison project phase six (CMIP6) models. Half the diagnosed models exhibit SUBSATLsensitivity close to observed, while six models are excessively sensitive. Parameter perturbation experiments with the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM5) support the physical basis for the POD. Increasing entrainment increases the CAM5 precipitation SUBSATLsensitivity. Switching off the convective scheme or modifying the convective trigger to be oversensitive to moisture reproduces the excessive SUBSATLsensitivity seen among CMIP6 models. Models with excessive SUBSATLsensitivities have precipitating mean states closer to grid‐scale saturation and likely support more grid‐scale convection.
This study examines thermodynamic–convection coupling in observations and reanalyses, and attempts to establish process-level benchmarks needed to guide model development. Thermodynamic profiles obtained from the NOAA Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive, COSMIC-1 GPS radio occultations, and several reanalyses are examined alongside Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission precipitation estimates. Cyclical increases and decreases in a bulk measure of lower-tropospheric convective instability are shown to be coupled to the cyclical amplification and decay of convection. This cyclical flow emerges from conditional-mean analysis in a thermodynamic space composed of two components: a measure of “undiluted” instability, which neglects lower-free-tropospheric (LFT) entrainment, and a measure of the reduction of instability by LFT entrainment. The observational and reanalysis products examined share the following qualitatively robust characterization of these convective cycles: increases in undiluted instability tend to occur when the LFT is less saturated, are followed by increases in LFT saturation and precipitation rate, which are then followed by decreases in undiluted instability. Shallow, convective, and stratiform precipitation are coupled to these cycles in a manner consistent with meteorological expectations. In situ and satellite observations differ systematically from reanalyses in their depictions of lower-tropospheric temperature and moisture variations throughout these convective cycles. When using reanalysis thermodynamic fields, these systematic differences cause variations in lower-free-tropospheric saturation deficit to appear less influential in determining the strength of convection than is suggested by observations. Disagreements among reanalyses, as well as between reanalyses and observations, pose significant challenges to process-level assessments of thermodynamic–convection coupling.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 1936810
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10406656
- Publisher / Repository:
- American Meteorological Society
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
- Volume:
- 79
- Issue:
- 7
- ISSN:
- 0022-4928
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 1781-1803
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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