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1. Investing in nature can improve equity and economic returns

   https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2220401120  

   Johnson, Justin Andrew; Baldos, Uris Lantz; Corong, Erwin; Hertel, Thomas; Polasky, Stephen; Cervigni, Raffaello; Roxburgh, Toby; Ruta, Giovanni; Salemi, Colette; Thakrar, Sumil (July 2023, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

   Sustainable development requires jointly achieving economic development to raise standards of living and environmental sustainability to secure these gains for the long run. Here, we develop a local-to-global, and global-to-local, earth-economy model that integrates the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP)-computable general equilibrium model of the economy with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model of fine-scale, spatially explicit ecosystem services. The integrated model, GTAP–InVEST, jointly determines land use, environmental conditions, ecosystem services, market prices, supply and demand across economic sectors, trade across regions, and aggregate performance metrics like GDP. We use the integrated model to analyze the contribution of investing in nature for economic prosperity, accounting for the impact of four important ecosystem services (pollination, timber provision, marine fisheries, and carbon sequestration). We show that investments in nature result in large improvements relative to a business-as-usual path, accruing annual gains of $100 to $350 billion (2014 USD) with the largest percentage gains in the lowest-income countries. Our estimates include only a small subset of ecosystem services and could be far higher with inclusion of more ecosystem services, incorporation of ecological tipping points, and reduction in substitutability that limits economic adjustments to declines in natural capital. Our analysis highlights the need for improved environmental–economic modeling and the vital importance of integrating environmental information firmly into economic analysis and policy. The benefits of doing so are potentially very large, with the greatest percentage benefits accruing to inhabitants of the poorest countries. 

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2. Rapid Recent Deforestation Incursion in a Vulnerable Indigenous Land in the Brazilian Amazon and Fire-Driven Emissions of Fine Particulate Aerosol Pollutants

   https://doi.org/10.3390/f11080829  

   de Oliveira, Gabriel; Chen, Jing M.; Mataveli, Guilherme A.; Chaves, Michel E.; Seixas, Hugo T.; Cardozo, Francielle da; Shimabukuro, Yosio E.; He, Liming; Stark, Scott C.; dos Santos, Carlos A. (August 2020, Forests)

   null (Ed.)

   Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon is related to the use of fire to remove natural vegetation and install crop cultures or pastures. In this study, we evaluated the relation between deforestation, land-use and land-cover (LULC) drivers and fire emissions in the Apyterewa Indigenous Land, Eastern Brazilian Amazon. In addition to the official Brazilian deforestation data, we used a geographic object-based image analysis (GEOBIA) approach to perform the LULC mapping in the Apyterewa Indigenous Land, and the Brazilian biomass burning emission model with fire radiative power (3BEM_FRP) to estimate emitted particulate matter with a diameter less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5), a primary human health risk. The GEOBIA approach showed a remarkable advancement of deforestation, agreeing with the official deforestation data, and, consequently, the conversion of primary forests to agriculture within the Apyterewa Indigenous Land in the past three years (200 km2), which is clearly associated with an increase in the PM2.5 emissions from fire. Between 2004 and 2016 the annual average emission of PM2.5 was estimated to be 3594 ton year−1, while the most recent interval of 2017–2019 had an average of 6258 ton year−1. This represented an increase of 58% in the annual average of PM2.5 associated with fires for the study period, contributing to respiratory health risks and the air quality crisis in Brazil in late 2019. These results expose an ongoing critical situation of intensifying forest degradation and potential forest collapse, including those due to a savannization forest-climate feedback, within “protected areas” in the Brazilian Amazon. To reverse this scenario, the implementation of sustainable agricultural practices and development of conservation policies to promote forest regrowth in degraded preserves are essential. 

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3. An ecosystem-based natural capital evaluation framework that combines environmental and socio-economic implications of offshore renewable energy developments

   https://doi.org/10.1088/2516-1083/ac702a  

   Trifonova, Neda; Scott, Beth; Griffin, Robert; Pennock, Shona; Jeffrey, Henry (June 2022, Progress in Energy)

   Abstract There is about to be an abrupt step-change in the use of coastal seas around the globe, specifically by the addition of large-scale offshore renewable energy (ORE) developments to combat climate change. Developing this sustainable energy supply will require trade-offs between both direct and indirect environmental effects, as well as spatial conflicts with marine uses like shipping, fishing, and recreation. However, the nexus between drivers, such as changes in the bio-physical environment from the introduction of structures and extraction of energy, and the consequent impacts on ecosystem services delivery and natural capital assets is poorly understood and rarely considered through a whole ecosystem perspective. Future marine planning needs to assess these changes as part of national policy level assessments but also to inform practitioners about the benefits and trade-offs between different uses of natural resources when making decisions to balance environmental and energy sustainability and socio-economic impacts. To address this shortfall, we propose an ecosystem-based natural capital evaluation framework that builds on a dynamic Bayesian modelling approach which accounts for the multiplicity of interactions between physical (e.g. bottom temperature), biological (e.g. net primary production) indicators and anthropogenic marine use (i.e. fishing) and their changes across space and over time. The proposed assessment framework measures ecosystem change, changes in ecosystem goods and services and changes in socio-economic value in response to ORE deployment scenarios as well as climate change, to provide objective information for decision processes seeking to integrate new uses into our marine ecosystems. Such a framework has the potential of exploring the likely outcomes in the same metrics (both ecological and socio-economic) from alternative management and climate scenarios, such that objective judgements and decisions can be made, as to how to balance the benefits and trade-offs between a range of marine uses to deliver long-term environmental sustainability, economic benefits, and social welfare. 

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4. The gathering firestorm in southern Amazonia

   https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aay1632  

   Brando, P. M.; Soares-Filho, B.; Rodrigues, L.; Assunção, A.; Morton, D.; Tuchschneider, D.; Fernandes, E. C.; Macedo, M. N.; Oliveira, U.; Coe, M. T. (January 2020, Science Advances)

   Wildfires, exacerbated by extreme weather events and land use, threaten to change the Amazon from a net carbon sink to a net carbon source. Here, we develop and apply a coupled ecosystem-fire model to quantify how greenhouse gas–driven drying and warming would affect wildfires and associated CO 2 emissions in the southern Brazilian Amazon. Regional climate projections suggest that Amazon fire regimes will intensify under both low- and high-emission scenarios. Our results indicate that projected climatic changes will double the area burned by wildfires, affecting up to 16% of the region’s forests by 2050. Although these fires could emit as much as 17.0 Pg of CO 2 equivalent to the atmosphere, avoiding new deforestation could cut total net fire emissions in half and help prevent fires from escaping into protected areas and indigenous lands. Aggressive efforts to eliminate ignition sources and suppress wildfires will be critical to conserve southern Amazon forests. 

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5. The natural capital of seagrass beds in the Caribbean: evaluating their ecosystem services and blue carbon trade potential

   https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2023.0075  

   Shayka, Bridget F; Hesselbarth, Maximilian_H K; Schill, Steven R; Currie, William S; Allgeier, Jacob E (June 2023, Biology Letters)

   Seagrass beds provide tremendous services to society, including the storage of carbon, with important implications for climate change mitigation. Prioritizing conservation of this valuable natural capital is of global significance, and including seagrass beds in global carbon markets through projects that minimize loss, increase area or restore degraded areas represents a mechanism towards this end. Using newly available Caribbean seagrass distribution data, we estimated carbon storage in the region and calculated economic valuations of total ecosystem services and carbon storage. We estimated the 88 170 km²of seagrass in the Caribbean stores 1337.8 (360.5–2335.0, minimum and maximum estimates, respectively) Tg carbon. The value of these seagrass ecosystems in terms of total ecosystem services and carbon alone was estimated to be $255 billion yr⁻¹and $88.3 billion, respectively, highlighting their potential monetary importance for the region. Our results show that Caribbean seagrass beds are globally substantial pools of carbon, and our findings underscore the importance of such evaluation schemes to promote urgently needed conservation of these highly threatened and globally important ecosystems. 

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