An official website of the United States government
Observational evidence indicates that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is losing mass at an accelerating rate. Impacts to global climate resulting from changing ocean circulation patterns due to increased freshwater runoff from Antarctica in the future could have significant implications for global heat transport, but to-date this topic has not been investigated using complex numerical models with realistic freshwater forcing. Here, we present results from a high resolution fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model (CESM 1.2) forced with runoff from Antarctica prescribed from a high resolution regional ice sheet-ice shelf model. Results from the regional simulations indicate a potential freshwater contribution from Antarctica of up to 1 m equivalent sea level rise by the end of the century under RCP 8.5 indicating that a substantial input of freshwater into the Southern Ocean is possible. Our high resolution global simulations were performed under IPCC future climate scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. We will present results showing the impact of WAIS collapse on global ocean circulation, sea ice, air temperature, and salinity in order to assess the potential for abrupt climate change triggered by WAIS collapse.
more »
« less
Response of water isotopes in precipitation to a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in high-resolution simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model
Abstract The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may have collapsed during the last interglacial period, between 132,000 and 116,000 years ago. The changes in topography resulting from WAIS collapse would be accompanied by significant changes in Antarctic surface climate, atmospheric circulation, and ocean conditions. Evidence of these changes may be recorded in water-isotope ratios in precipitation archived in the ice. We conduct high-resolution simulations with an isotope-enabled version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model over Antarctica, with boundary conditions provided by climate-model simulations with both present-day and lowered WAIS topography. The results show that while there is significant spatial variability, WAIS collapse would cause detectable isotopic changes at several locations where ice-core records have been obtained or could be obtained in the future. The most robust signals include elevated δ 18 O at SkyTrain Ice Rise in West Antarctica, and elevated deuterium excess at Hercules Dome in East Antarctica. A combination of records from multiple sites would provide constraints on the timing, rate, and magnitude of past WAIS collapse.
more »
« less
- PAR ID:
- 10408696
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Climate
- ISSN:
- 0894-8755
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1 to 30
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) presently holds enough ice to raise global sea level by 4.3 m if completely melted. The unknownresponse of the WAIS to future warming remains a significant challenge fornumerical models in quantifying predictions of future sea level rise. Sealevel rise is one of the clearest planet-wide signals of human-inducedclimate change. The Sensitivity of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a Warmingof 2 ∘C (SWAIS 2C) Project aims to understand past and currentdrivers and thresholds of WAIS dynamics to improve projections of the rateand size of ice sheet changes under a range of elevated greenhouse gaslevels in the atmosphere as well as the associated average globaltemperature scenarios to and beyond the +2 ∘C target of theParis Climate Agreement. Despite efforts through previous land and ship-based drilling on and alongthe Antarctic margin, unequivocal evidence of major WAIS retreat or collapse and its causes has remained elusive. To evaluate and plan for theinterdisciplinary scientific opportunities and engineering challenges thatan International Continental Drilling Program (ICDP) project along the Siple coast near the grounding zone of the WAIS could offer (Fig. 1), researchers, engineers, and logistics providers representing 10 countries held a virtualworkshop in October 2020. This international partnership comprised ofgeologists, glaciologists, oceanographers, geophysicists, microbiologists,climate and ice sheet modelers, and engineers outlined specific researchobjectives and logistical challenges associated with the recovery of Neogene and Quaternary geological records from the West Antarctic interior adjacent to the Kamb Ice Stream and at Crary Ice Rise. New geophysical surveys at these locations have identified drilling targets in which new drilling technologies will allow for the recovery of up to 200 m of sediments beneaththe ice sheet. Sub-ice-shelf records have so far proven difficult to obtainbut are critical to better constrain marine ice sheet sensitivity to pastand future increases in global mean surface temperature up to 2 ∘Cabove pre-industrial levels. Thus, the scientific and technological advances developed through this program will enable us to test whether WAIS collapsed during past intervals of warmth and determine its sensitivity to a +2 ∘C global warming threshold (UNFCCC, 2015).more » « less
-
Abstract A hierarchy of general circulation models (GCMs) is used to investigate the linearity of the response of the climate system to changes in Antarctic topography. Experiments were conducted with a GCM with either a slab-ocean or fixed SSTs and sea ice, in which the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) and coastal Antarctic topography was either lowered or raised in an idealizedway. Additional experimentswere conducted with a fully-coupledGCMwith topographic perturbations based on an ice-sheet model in which the WAIS collapses. The response over the continent is the same in all model configurations and is mostly linear. In contrast, the response has substantial non-linear elements over the Southern Ocean that depend on the model configuration due to feedbacks with sea ice, ocean, and clouds. The atmosphere warms near the surface over much of the Southern Ocean and cools in the stratosphere over Antarctica, whether topography is raised or lowered. When topography is lowered, the Southern Ocean surface warming is due to strengthened southward atmospheric heat transport and associated enhanced storminess over the WAIS and the high latitudes of the Southern Ocean. When topography is raised, Southern Ocean warming is more limited, and associated with circulation anomalies. The response in the fully-coupled experiments is generally consistent with the more idealized experiments, but the full-depth ocean warms throughout the water column whether topography is raised or lowered. These results indicate that ice sheet-climate system feedbacks differ depending on whether the Antarctic ice sheet is gaining or losing mass.more » « less
-
Observations of rapid ongoing grounding line retreat, ice shelf thinning and accelerated ice flow from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may forebode a possible collapse if global temperatures continue to increase. Understanding and reconstructing West Antarctic Ice Sheet dynamics in past warmer-than-present times will inform about its behavior as an analogue for future climate scenarios. International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 379 visited the Amundsen Sea sector of Antarctica to obtain geological records suitable for this purpose. During the expedition, cores from two drill sites at the Resolution Drift on the continental rise returned sediments whose deposition was possibly influenced by West Antarctic Ice Sheet dynamics from late Miocene to Holocene times. To examine the West Antarctic Ice Sheet dynamics, shipboard physical properties and sedimentological data are correlated with seismic data and extrapolated across the Resolution Drift via core-log-seismic integration. An interval with strongly variable physical properties, high diatom abundance and ice-rafted debris occurrence, correlating with partially high amplitude seismic reflection characteristics was identified between 4.2 and 3.2 Ma. Sedimentation during this interval is interpreted as having occurred during an extended warm period with a dynamic West Antarctic Ice Sheet in the Amundsen Sea sector. These records compare to those of other drill sites in the Ross Sea and the Bellingshausen Sea, and thus suggest an almost simultaneous occurrence of extended warm periods in all three locations.more » « less
-
Abstract The fate of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS)1is the largest cause of uncertainty in long-term sea-level projections. In the last interglacial (LIG) around 125,000 years ago, data suggest that sea level was several metres higher than today2–4, and required a significant contribution from Antarctic ice loss, with WAIS usually implicated. Antarctica and the Southern Ocean were warmer than today5–8, by amounts comparable to those expected by 2100 under moderate to high future warming scenarios. However, direct evidence about the size of WAIS in the LIG is sparse. Here we use sea salt data from an ice core from Skytrain Ice Rise, adjacent to WAIS, to show that, during most of the LIG, the Ronne Ice Shelf was still in place, and close to its current extent. Water isotope data are consistent with a retreat of WAIS9, but seem inconsistent with more dramatic model realizations10in which both WAIS and the large Antarctic ice shelves were lost. This new constraint calls for a reappraisal of other elements of the LIG sea-level budget. It also weakens the observational basis that motivated model simulations projecting the highest end of projections for future rates of sea-level rise to 2300 and beyond.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0647.1
