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Abstract Permafrost thaw is typically measured with active layer thickness, or the maximum seasonal thaw measured from the ground surface. However, previous work has shown that this measurement alone fails to account for ground subsidence and therefore underestimates permafrost thaw. To determine the impact of subsidence on observed permafrost thaw and thawed soil carbon stocks, we quantified subsidence using high‐accuracy GPS and identified its environmental drivers in a permafrost warming experiment near the southern limit of permafrost in Alaska. With permafrost temperatures near 0°C, 10.8 cm of subsidence was observed in control plots over 9 years. Experimental air and soil warming increased subsidence by five times and created inundated microsites. Across treatments, ice and soil loss drove 85–91% and 9–15% of subsidence, respectively. Accounting for subsidence, permafrost thawed between 19% (control) and 49% (warming) deeper than active layer thickness indicated, and the amount of newly thawed carbon within the active layer was between 37% (control) and 113% (warming) greater. As additional carbon thaws as the active layer deepens, carbon fluxes to the atmosphere and lateral transport of carbon in groundwater could increase. The magnitude of this impact is uncertain at the landscape scale, though, due to limited subsidence measurements. Therefore, to determine the full extent of permafrost thaw across the circumpolar region and its feedback on the carbon cycle, it is necessary to quantify subsidence more broadly across the circumpolar region.
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Localized Vegetation, Soil Moisture, and Ice Content Offset Permafrost Degradation under Climate Warming
Rapid Arctic warming is expected to result in widespread permafrost degradation. However, observations show that site-specific conditions (vegetation and soils) may offset the reaction of permafrost to climate change. This paper summarizes 43 years of interannual seasonal thaw observations from tundra landscapes surrounding the Marre-Sale on the west coast of the Yamal Peninsula, northwest Siberia. This robust dataset includes landscape-specific climate, active layer thickness, soil moisture, and vegetation observations at multiple scales. Long-term trends from these hierarchically scaled observations indicate that drained landscapes exhibit the most pronounced responses to changing climatic conditions, while moist and wet tundra landscapes exhibit decreasing active layer thickness, and river floodplain landscapes do not show changes in the active layer. The slow increase in seasonal thaw depth despite significant warming observed over the last four decades on the Yamal Peninsula can be explained by thickening moss covers and ground surface subsidence as the transient layer (ice-rich upper permafrost soil horizon) thaws and compacts. The uneven proliferation of specific vegetation communities, primarily mosses, is significantly contributing to spatial variability observed in active layer dynamics. Based on these findings, we recommend that regional permafrost assessments employ a mean landscape-scale active layer thickness that weights the proportions of different landscape types.
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- PAR ID:
- 10414785
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geosciences
- Volume:
- 13
- Issue:
- 5
- ISSN:
- 2076-3263
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 129
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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null (Ed.)We present the results of studies of the methane content in soils of the active layer and underlying permafrost, as well as data on the emission of methane into the atmosphere in the dominant landscapes of typical tundra of the western coast of the Yamal Peninsula. A detailed landscape map of the study area was compiled, the dominant types of landscapes were determined, and vegetation cover was described. We determined that a high methane content is characteristic of the wet landscapes: peat bogs within the floodplains, water tracks, and lake basins. Average values of the methane content in the active layer for such landscapes varied from 2.4 to 3.5 mL (CH4)/kg, with a maximum of 9.0 mL (CH4)/kg. The distribution of methane in studied sections is characterized by an increase in its concentration with depth. This confirms the diffuse mechanism of methane transport in the active layer and emission of methane into the atmosphere. The transition zone of the upper permafrost contains 2.5–5-times more methane than the active layer and may become a significant source of methane during the anticipated permafrost degradation. Significant fluxes of methane into the atmosphere of 2.6 mg (CH4) * m−2 * h−1 are characteristic of the flooded landscapes of peat bogs, water tracks, and lake basins, which occupy approximately 45% of the typical tundra area.more » « less
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Tundra vegetation productivity and composition are responding rapidly to climatic changes in the Arctic. These changes can, in turn, mitigate or amplify permafrost thaw. In this Review, we synthesize remotely sensed and field-observed vegetation change across the tundra biome, and outline how these shifts could influence permafrost thaw. Permafrost ice content appears to be an important control on local vegetation changes; woody vegetation generally increases in ice-poor uplands, whereas replacement of woody vegetation by (aquatic) graminoids following abrupt permafrost thaw is more frequent in ice-rich Arctic lowlands. These locally observed vegetation changes contribute to regional satellite-observed greening trends, although the interpretation of greening and browning is complicated. Increases in vegetation cover and height generally mitigate permafrost thaw in summer, yet, increase annual soil temperatures through snow-related winter soil warming effects. Strong vegetation–soil feedbacks currently alleviate the consequences of thaw-related disturbances. However, if the increasing scale and frequency of disturbances in a warming Arctic exceeds the capacity for vegetation and permafrost recovery, changes to Arctic ecosystems could be irreversible. To better disentangle vegetation– soil– permafrost interactions, ecological field studies remain crucial, but require better integration with geophysical assessments.more » « less
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Abstract Northern circumpolar permafrost thaw affects global carbon cycling, as large amounts of stored soil carbon becomes accessible to microbial breakdown under a warming climate. The magnitude of carbon release is linked to the extent of permafrost thaw, which is locally variable and controlled by soil thermodynamics. Soil thermodynamic properties, such as thermal diffusivity, govern the reactivity of the soil‐atmosphere thermal gradient, and are controlled by soil composition and drainage. In order to project permafrost thaw for an Alaskan tundra experimental site, we used seven years of site data to calibrate a soil thermodynamic model using a data assimilation technique. The model reproduced seasonal and interannual temperature dynamics for shallow (5–40 cm) and deep soil layers (2–4 m), and simulations of seasonal thaw depth closely matched observed data. The model was then used to project permafrost thaw at the site to the year 2100 using climate forcing data for three future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). Minimal permafrost thawing occurred until mean annual air temperatures rose above the freezing point, after which we measured over a 1 m increase in thaw depth for every 1 °C rise in mean annual air temperature. Under no projected warming scenario was permafrost remaining in the upper 3 m of soil by 2100. We demonstrated an effective data assimilation method that optimizes parameterization of a soil thermodynamic model. The sensitivity of local permafrost to climate warming illustrates the vulnerability of sub‐Arctic tundra ecosystems to significant and rapid soil thawing.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences13050129
