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Abstract In this work, we describe a new approach that uses variational encoder-decoder (VED) networks for efficient uncertainty quantification forgoal-orientedinverse problems. Contrary to standard inverse problems, these approaches are goal-oriented in that the goal is to estimate some quantities of interest (QoI) that are functions of the solution of an inverse problem, rather than the solution itself. Moreover, we are interested in computing uncertainty metrics associated with the QoI, thus utilizing a Bayesian approach for inverse problems that incorporates the prediction operator and techniques for exploring the posterior. This may be particularly challenging, especially for nonlinear, possibly unknown, operators and nonstandard prior assumptions. We harness recent advances in machine learning, i.e. VED networks, to describe a data-driven approach to large-scale inverse problems. This enables a real-time uncertainty quantification for the QoI. One of the advantages of our approach is that we avoid the need to solve challenging inversion problems by training a network to approximate the mapping from observations to QoI. Another main benefit is that we enable uncertainty quantification for the QoI by leveraging probability distributions in the latent and target spaces. This allows us to efficiently generate QoI samples and circumvent complicated or even unknown forward models and prediction operators. Numerical results from medical tomography reconstruction and nonlinear hydraulic tomography demonstrate the potential and broad applicability of the approach.
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Universal Prediction Band via Semi-Definite Programming
Abstract We propose a computationally efficient method to construct nonparametric, heteroscedastic prediction bands for uncertainty quantification, with or without any user-specified predictive model. Our approach provides an alternative to the now-standard conformal prediction for uncertainty quantification, with novel theoretical insights and computational advantages. The data-adaptive prediction band is universally applicable with minimal distributional assumptions, has strong non-asymptotic coverage properties, and is easy to implement using standard convex programs. Our approach can be viewed as a novel variance interpolation with confidence and further leverages techniques from semi-definite programming and sum-of-squares optimization. Theoretical and numerical performances for the proposed approach for uncertainty quantification are analysed.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2042473
- PAR ID:
- 10417123
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology
- Volume:
- 84
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 1369-7412
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1558 to 1580
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1111/rssb.12542
