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1. Understanding the Drivers of Mobility during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Florida, USA using a Machine Learning Approach

   https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi10070440  

   Zhu, G. ; Stewart, K. ; Niemeier, D. ; Fan, J. ( July 2021 , ISPRS international journal of geoinformation)

   Kainz, W. ; Manley, E. ; Delmelle, E. ; Birkin, M. ; Gahegan, M. ; Kwan, M-P. (Ed.)

   As of March 2021, the State of Florida, U.S.A. had accounted for approximately 6.67% of total COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus disease) cases in the U.S. The main objective of this research is to analyze mobility patterns during a three month period in summer 2020, when COVID-19 case numbers were very high for three Florida counties, Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties. To investigate patterns, as well as drivers, related to changes in mobility across the tri-county region, a random forest regression model was built using sociodemographic, travel, and built environment factors, as well as COVID-19 positive case data. Mobility patterns declined in each county when new COVID-19 infections began to rise, beginning in mid-June 2020. While the mean number of bar and restaurant visits was lower overall due to closures, analysis showed that these visits remained a top factor that impacted mobility for all three counties, even with a rise in cases. Our modeling results suggest that there were mobility pattern differences between counties with respect to factors relating, for example, to race and ethnicity (different population groups factored differently in each county),as well as social distancing or travel-related factors (e.g., staying at home behaviors) over the two time periods priormore »to and after the spike of COVID-19 cases.« less
2. Effectiveness of alternative semester break schedules on reducing COVID-19 incidence on college campuses

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-06260-1  

   Lehnig, Chris L. ; Oren, Eyal ; Vaidya, Naveen K. ( February 2022 , Scientific Reports)

   Despite COVID-19 vaccination programs, the threat of new SARS-CoV-2 strains and continuing pockets of transmission persists. While many U.S. universities replaced their traditional nine-day spring 2021 break with multiple breaks of shorter duration, the effects these schedules have on reducing COVID-19 incidence remains unclear. The main objective of this study is to quantify the impact of alternative break schedules on cumulative COVID-19 incidence on university campuses. Using student mobility data and Monte Carlo simulations of returning infectious student size, we developed a compartmental susceptible-exposed-infectious-asymptomatic-recovered (SEIAR) model to simulate transmission dynamics among university students. As a case study, four alternative spring break schedules were derived from a sample of universities and evaluated. Across alternative multi-break schedules, the median percent reduction of total semester COVID-19 incidence, relative to a traditional nine-day break, ranged from 2 to 4% (for 2% travel destination prevalence) and 8–16% (for 10% travel destination prevalence). The maximum percent reduction from an alternate break schedule was estimated to be 37.6%. Simulation results show that adjusting academic calendars to limit student travel can reduce disease burden. Insights gleaned from our simulations could inform policies regarding appropriate planning of schedules for upcoming semesters upon returning to in-person teaching modalities.
3. Effectiveness of travel behavior and infrastructure change to mitigate heat exposure

   https://doi.org/10.3389/frsc.2023.1129388  

   Li, Rui ; Chester, Mikhail V. ; Middel, Ariane ; Vanos, Jennifer K. ; Hernandez-Cortes, Danae ; Buo, Isaac ; Hondula, David M. ( March 2023 , Frontiers in Sustainable Cities)

   Urban heat exposure is an increasing health risk among urban dwellers. Many cities are considering accommodating active mobility, especially walking and biking, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, promoting active mobility without proper planning and transportation infrastructure to combat extreme heat exposure may cause more heat-related morbidity and mortality, particularly in future with projected climate change. This study estimated the effectiveness of active trip heat exposure mitigation under built environment and travel behavior change. Simulations of the Phoenix metro region's 624,987 active trips were conducted using the activity-based travel model (ABM), mean radiant temperature (T MRT , net human radiation exposure), transportation network, and local climate zones. Two scenarios were designed to reduce traveler exposure: one that focuses on built environment change (making neighborhoods cooler) and the other on travel behavior (switching from shorter travel time but higher exposure routes to longer travel time but cooler routes) change. Travelers experienced T MRT heat exposure ranging from 29°C to 76°C (84°F to 168°F) without environmental or behavioral change. Active trip T MRT exposures were reduced by an average of 1.2–3.7°C when the built environment was changed from a hotter to cooler design. Behavioral changes cooled up to 10 times more tripsmore »than changes in built environment changes. The marginal benefit of cooling decreased as the number of cooled corridors transformed increased. When the most traveled 10 km of corridors were cooled, the marginal benefit affected over 1,000 trips/km. However, cooling all corridors results in marginal benefits as low as 1 trip/km. The results reveal that heavily traveled corridors should be prioritized with limited resources, and the best cooling results come from environment and travel behavior change together. The results show how to surgically invest in travel behavior and built environment change to most effectively protect active travelers.« less
4. Environmental correlates of activity and energetics in a wide-ranging social carnivore

   https://doi.org/10.1186/s40317-021-00272-w  

   Bryce, Caleb M. ; Dunford, Carolyn E. ; Pagano, Anthony M. ; Wang, Yiwei ; Borg, Bridget L. ; Arthur, Stephen M. ; Williams, Terrie M. ( January 2022 , Animal Biotelemetry)

   Environmental conditions can influence animal movements, determining when and how much animals move. Yet few studies have quantified how abiotic environmental factors (e.g., ambient temperature, snow depth, precipitation) may affect the activity patterns and metabolic demands of wide-ranging large predators. We demonstrate the utility of accelerometers in combination with more traditional GPS telemetry to measure energy expenditure, ranging patterns, and movement ecology of 5 gray wolves (Canis lupus), a wide-ranging social carnivore, from spring through autumn 2015 in interior Alaska, USA.

   Wolves exhibited substantial variability in home range size (range 500–8300 km²) that was not correlated with daily energy expenditure. Mean daily energy expenditure and travel distance were 22 MJ and 18 km day⁻¹, respectively. Wolves spent 20% and 17% more energy during the summer pup rearing and autumn recruitment seasons than the spring breeding season, respectively, regardless of pack reproductive status. Wolves were predominantly crepuscular but during the night spent 2.4 × more time engaged in high energy activities (such as running) during the pup rearing season than the breeding season.

   Integrating accelerometry with GPS telemetry can reveal detailed insights into the activity and energetics of wide-ranging predators. Heavy precipitation, deep snow, and high ambient temperatures each reduced wolf mobility, suggesting that abiotic conditionsmore »can impact wolf movement decisions. Identifying such patterns is an important step toward evaluating the influence of environmental factors on the space use and energy allocation in carnivores with ecosystem-wide cascading effects, particularly under changing climatic conditions.

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5. Mapping current and future thermal limits to suitability for malaria transmission by the invasive mosquito Anopheles stephensi

   https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-023-04531-4  

   Ryan, Sadie J. ; Lippi, Catherine A. ; Villena, Oswaldo C. ; Singh, Aspen ; Murdock, Courtney C. ; Johnson, Leah R. ( March 2023 , Malaria Journal)

   Anopheles stephensiis a malaria-transmitting mosquito that has recently expanded from its primary range in Asia and the Middle East, to locations in Africa. This species is a competent vector of bothPlasmodium falciparumandPlasmodium vivaxmalaria. Perhaps most alarming, the characteristics ofAn.stephensi, such as container breeding and anthropophily, make it particularly adept at exploiting built environments in areas with no prior history of malaria risk.

   In this paper, global maps of thermal transmission suitability and people at risk (PAR) for malaria transmission byAn.stephensiwere created, under current and future climate. Temperature-dependent transmission suitability thresholds derived from recently published species-specific thermal curves were used to threshold gridded, monthly mean temperatures under current and future climatic conditions. These temperature driven transmission models were coupled with gridded population data for 2020 and 2050, under climate-matched scenarios for future outcomes, to compare with baseline predictions for 2020 populations.

   Using the Global Burden of Disease regions approach revealed that heterogenous regional increases and decreases in risk did not mask the overall pattern of massive increases of PAR for malaria transmission suitability withAn.stephensipresence. General patterns of poleward expansion for thermal suitability were seen for bothP.falciparumandP.vivaxtransmission potential.

   Understanding the potential suitability forAn.stephensitransmission in a changing climate provides a key toolmore »for planning, given an ongoing invasion and expansion of the vector. Anticipating the potential impact of onward expansion to transmission suitable areas, and the size of population at risk under future climate scenarios, and where they occur, can serve as a large-scale call for attention, planning, and monitoring.

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