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1. River flow decline across the entire Arkansas River Basin in the 21st century

   https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129253  

   Yang, Jia ; Zou, Chris ; Will, Rodney ; Wagner, Kevin ; Ouyang, Ying ; King, Chad ; Winrich, Abigail ; Tian, Hanqin ( March 2023 , Journal of Hydrology)

   The Arkansas River and its tributaries provide critical water resources for agricultural irrigation, hydropower generation, and public water supply in the Arkansas River Basin (ARB). However, climate change and other environmental factors have imposed significant impacts on regional hydrological processes, resulting in widespread ecological and economic consequences. In this study, we projected future river flow patterns in the 21st century across the entire ARB under two climate and socio-economic change scenarios (i.e., SSP2-RCP45 and SSP5-RCP85) using the process-based Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM). We designed “baseline simulations” (all driving factors were kept constant at the level circa 2000) and “environmental change simulations” (at least one driving factor changed over time during 2001–2099) to simulate the inter-annual variations of river flow and quantify the contributions of four driving factors (i.e., climate change, CO2 concentration, atmospheric nitrogen deposition, and land use change). Results showed that the Arkansas River flow in 2080–2099 would decrease by 12.1% in the SSP2-RCP45 and 27.9% in the SSP5-RCP85 compared to that during 2000–2019. River flow decline would occur from the beginning to the middle of this century in the SSP2-RCP45 and happen throughout the entire century in the SSP5-RCP85. All major rivers in the ARB would experience river flow decline with the largest percentage reduction in the western and southwestern ARB. Warming and drying climates would account for 77%–95% of the reduction. The rising CO2 concentration would exacerbate the decline through increasing foliage area and ecosystem evapotranspiration. This study provides insight into the spatial patterns of future changes in water availability in the ARB and the underlying mechanisms controlling these changes. This information is critical for designing watershed-specific management strategies to maintain regional water resource sustainability and mitigate the adverse impacts of climate changes on water availability. 

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2. Classifying flow regimes of the Amazon basin

   https://doi.org/10.1002/aqc.3582  

   Siddiqui, Sharmin F. ; Zapata‐Rios, Xavier ; Torres‐Paguay, Sandra ; Encalada, Andrea C. ; Anderson, Elizabeth P. ; Allaire, Mark ; da Costa Doria, Carolina Rodrigues ; Kaplan, David A. ( April 2021 , Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems)

   The Amazon River basin contains a vast diversity of lotic habitats and accompanying hydrological regimes. Further understanding the spatial distribution of flow regimes across the Amazon can be useful for recognizing riverine ecohydrological processes and informing river management and conservation, especially in areas with limited or inconsistent streamflow monitoring.

   This study compares four inductive approaches for classifying streamflow regimes across the Amazon using an unprecedented compilation of streamflow records from Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru.

   Inductive classification schemes use attributes of streamflow data to categorize river reaches into similar classes, which then may be generalized to understand streamflow behaviour at the basin scale. In this study, classification was accomplished through hierarchical clustering of 67 flow metrics calculated using indicators of hydrologic alteration (IHA) and daily streamflow data from median annual hydrographs (MAHs) for 404 stations (representing >7,000 station‐years) across five Amazonian countries.

   Classification was performed using both flow magnitude‐inclusive and flow magnitude‐independent datasets. For flow magnitude‐independent methods, optimal solutions included six or seven primary hydrological classes for IHA and MAH datasets; for approaches that retained magnitude, variance was sufficiently large to prevent convergence to a specific number of classes.

   Across methods, class membership was strongly associated with the timing, frequency, and rate of change of flow, and spatially coherent clusters were associated with seasonal, elevational, and stream‐order gradients. These results highlight the diversity of flow regimes across the Amazon and provide a framework for studying relationships between hydrological regimes and ecological responses in the context of changing climate, land use, and human‐induced hydrological alteration.

   The methodology applied provides a data‐driven approach for classifying flow regimes based on observed data. When coupled with ecological knowledge and expertise, these classifications can be used to develop ecohydrologically informed and management‐relevant conservation practices.

    

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3. Drought effects on invertebrate metapopulation dynamics and quasi‐extinction risk in an intermittent river network

   https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15720  

   Sarremejane, Romain ; Stubbington, Rachel ; England, Judy ; Sefton, Catherine E. M. ; Eastman, Michael ; Parry, Simon ; Ruhi, Albert ( June 2021 , Global Change Biology)

   Ecological communities can remain stable in the face of disturbance if their constituent species have different resistance and resilience strategies. In turn, local stability scales up regionally if heterogeneous landscapes maintain spatial asynchrony across discrete populations—but not if large‐scale stressors synchronize environmental conditions and biological responses. Here, we hypothesized that droughts could drastically decrease the stability of invertebrate metapopulations both by filtering out poorly adapted species locally, and by synchronizing their dynamics across a river network. We tested this hypothesis via multivariate autoregressive state‐space (MARSS) models on spatially replicated, long‐term data describing aquatic invertebrate communities and hydrological conditions in a set of temperate, lowland streams subject to seasonal and supraseasonal drying events. This quantitative approach allowed us to assess the influence of local (flow magnitude) and network‐scale (hydrological connectivity) drivers on invertebrate long‐term trajectories, and to simulate near‐future responses to a range of drought scenarios. We found that fluctuations in species abundances were heterogeneous across communities and driven by a combination of hydrological and stochastic drivers. Among metapopulations, increasing extent of dry reaches reduced the abundance of functional groups with low resistance or resilience capacities (i.e. low ability to persist in situ or recolonize from elsewhere, respectively). Our simulations revealed that metapopulation quasi‐extinction risk for taxa vulnerable to drought increased exponentially as flowing habitats contracted within the river network, whereas the risk for taxa with resistance and resilience traits remained stable. Our results suggest that drought can be a synchronizing agent in riverscapes, potentially leading to regional quasi‐extinction of species with lower resistance and resilience abilities. Better recognition of drought‐driven synchronization may increase realism in species extinction forecasts as hydroclimatic extremes continue to intensify worldwide.

    

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4. Simulated Dynamics of Mixed Versus Uniform Grain Size Sediment Pulses in a Gravel‐Bedded River

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JF006194  

   Ahammad, Muneer ; Czuba, Jonathan A. ; Pfeiffer, Allison M. ; Murphy, Brendan P. ; Belmont, Patrick ( October 2021 , Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface)

   Mountain rivers often receive sediment in the form of episodic, discrete pulses from a variety of natural and anthropogenic processes. Once emplaced in the river, the movement of this sediment depends on flow, grain size distribution, and channel and network geometry. Here, we simulate downstream bed elevation changes that result from discrete inputs of sediment (∼10,000 m³), differing in volume and grain size distribution, under medium and high flow conditions. We specifically focus on comparing bed responses between mixed and uniform grain size sediment pulses. This work builds on a Lagrangian, bed‐material sediment transport model and applies it to a 27 km reach of the mainstem Nisqually River, Washington, USA. We compare observed bed elevation change and accumulation rates in a downstream lake to simulation results. Then we investigate the magnitude, timing, and persistence of downstream changes due to the introduction of synthetic sediment pulses by comparing the results against a baseline condition (without pulse). Our findings suggest that bed response is primarily influenced by the sediment‐pulse grain size and distribution. Intermediate mixed‐size pulses (∼50% of the median bed gravel size) are likely to have the largest downstream impact because finer sizes translate quickly and coarser sizes (median bed gravel size and larger) disperse slowly. Furthermore, a mixed‐size pulse, with a smaller median grain size than the bed, increases bed mobility more than a uniform‐size pulse. This work has important implications for river management, as it allows us to better understand fluvial geomorphic responses to variations in sediment supply.

    

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5. Spatial Patterns and Drivers of Nonperennial Flow Regimes in the Contiguous United States

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090794  

   Hammond, John C. ; Zimmer, Margaret ; Shanafield, Margaret ; Kaiser, Kendra ; Godsey, Sarah E. ; Mims, Meryl C. ; Zipper, Samuel C. ; Burrows, Ryan M. ; Kampf, Stephanie K. ; Dodds, Walter ; et al ( January 2021 , Geophysical Research Letters)

   Over half of global rivers and streams lack perennial flow, and understanding the distribution and drivers of their flow regimes is critical for understanding their hydrologic, biogeochemical, and ecological functions. We analyzed nonperennial flow regimes using 540 U.S. Geological Survey watersheds across the contiguous United States from 1979 to 2018. Multivariate analyses revealed regional differences in no‐flow fraction, date of first no flow, and duration of the dry‐down period, with further divergence between natural and human‐altered watersheds. Aridity was a primary driver of no‐flow metrics at the continental scale, while unique combinations of climatic, physiographic and anthropogenic drivers emerged at regional scales. Dry‐down duration showed stronger associations with nonclimate drivers compared to no‐flow fraction and timing. Although the sparse distribution of nonperennial gages limits our understanding of such streams, the watersheds examined here suggest the important role of aridity and land cover change in modulating future stream drying.

    

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