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ABSTRACT Species are distributed in predictable ways in geographic spaces. The three principal factors that determine geographic distributions of species are biotic interactions (B), abiotic conditions (A), and dispersal ability or mobility (M). A species is expected to be present in areas that are accessible to it and that contain suitable sets of abiotic and biotic conditions for it to persist. A species' probability of presence can be quantified as a combination of responses toB,A, andMviaecological niche modeling (ENM; also frequently referred to as species distribution modeling or SDM). This analytical approach has been used broadly in ecology and biogeography, as well as in conservation planning and decision‐making, but commonly in the context of ‘natural’ settings. However, it is increasingly recognized that human impacts, including changes in climate, land cover, and ecosystem function, greatly influence species' geographic ranges. In this light, historical distinctions between natural and anthropogenic factors have become blurred, and a coupled human–natural landscape is recognized as the new norm. Therefore,B,A, andM(BAM) factors need to be reconsidered to understand and quantify species' distributions in a world with a pervasive signature of human impacts. Here, we present a framework, termed human‐influenced BAM (Hi‐BAM, for distributional ecology that (i) conceptualizes human impacts in the form of six drivers, and (ii) synthesizes previous studies to show how each driver modifies the natural BAM and species' distributions. Given the importance and prevalence of human impacts on species distributions globally, we also discuss implications of this framework for ENM/SDM methods, and explore strategies by which to incorporate increasing human impacts in the methodology. Human impacts are redefining biogeographic patterns; as such, future studies should incorporate signals of human impacts integrally in modeling and forecasting species' distributions.
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Species distribution modelling supports the study of past, present and future biogeographies
Abstract Species distribution modelling (SDM), also called environmental or ecological niche modelling, has developed over the last 30 years as a widely used tool used in core areas of biogeography including historical biogeography, studies of diversity patterns, studies of species ranges, ecoregional classification, conservation assessment and projecting future global change impacts. In the 50th anniversary year ofJournal of Biogeography, I reflect on developments in species distribution modelling, illustrate how embedded the methodology has become in all areas of biogeography and speculate on future directions in the field. Challenges to species distribution modelling raised in this journal in 2006 have been addressed to a significant degree. Those challenges are clarification of the niche concept; improved sample design for species occurrence data; model parameterization; predictor selection; assessing model performance and transferability; and integrating correlative and process models of species distributions. SDM is used, often in conjunction with other evidence, to understand past species range dynamics, identify patterns and drivers of biological diversity, identify drivers of species range limits, define and delineate ecoregions, estimate the distributions of biodiversity elements in relation to protected status and to prioritize conservation action, and to forecast species range shifts in response to climate change and other global change scenarios. Areas of progress in SDM that may become more widely accessible and useful tools in biogeography include genetically informed models and community distribution models.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1853697
- PAR ID:
- 10419819
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley-Blackwell
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Biogeography
- Volume:
- 50
- Issue:
- 9
- ISSN:
- 0305-0270
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: p. 1533-1545
- Size(s):
- p. 1533-1545
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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