The direct response of the cold-season atmospheric circulation to the Arctic sea ice loss is estimated from observed sea ice concentration (SIC) and an atmospheric reanalysis, assuming that the atmospheric response to the long-term sea ice loss is the same as that to interannual pan-Arctic SIC fluctuations with identical spatial patterns. No large-scale relationship with previous interannual SIC fluctuations is found in October and November, but a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)/Arctic Oscillation follows the pan-Arctic SIC fluctuations from December to March. The signal is field significant in the stratosphere in December, and in the troposphere and tropopause thereafter. However, multiple regressions indicate that the stratospheric December signal is largely due to concomitant Siberian snow-cover anomalies. On the other hand, the tropospheric January–March NAO signals can be unambiguously attributed to SIC variability, with an Iceland high approaching 45 m at 500 hPa, a 2°C surface air warming in northeastern Canada, and a modulation of blocking activity in the North Atlantic sector. In March, a 1°C northern Europe cooling is also attributed to SIC. An SIC impact on the warm Arctic–cold Eurasia pattern is only found in February in relation to January SIC. Extrapolating the most robust results suggests that, in the absence of other forcings, the SIC loss between 1979 and 2016 would have induced a 2°–3°C decade−1winter warming in northeastern North America and a 40–60 m decade−1increase in the height of the Iceland high, if linearity and perpetual winter conditions could be assumed.
In Europe, the increase in temperatures caused by climate change has been particularly fast in the cold season. Although the magnitude of this change is relatively well known, less research has been done on how the increase of temperatures is manifested in different large‐scale weather types, called weather regimes. For example, one could expect that the weather patterns in which air is flowing from the rapidly‐warming Arctic would have warmed faster than other weather patterns in recent decades. Here we show that such an asymmetric warming actually occurs in the four Euro‐Atlantic weather regimes. In northern Europe, the weather regime which is typically associated with cold airmasses from the Arctic (NAO–) has warmed about 25% faster than the cold‐season days on average, and about 60% faster than the regime where the air flows from the North Atlantic (NAO+). Consequently, the weather regime that on average brings the coldest weather is warming the fastest in a large part of northern Europe. In contrast, the weather regime that typically brings the warmest weather has warmed the slowest, especially in the continental Europe. Our results provide a new perspective on the reported decrease of sub‐seasonal temperature variability.
more » « less- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10420287
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Atmospheric Science Letters
- ISSN:
- 1530-261X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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