Understanding the hydroclimate representations of precipitation
We want to comprehensively understand the hydroclimate footprints of
Oxygen isotope speleothems have been widely used to infer past climate changes over tropical South America (TSA). However, the spatial patterns of the millennial precipitation and precipitation
We want to reconcile the controversy on whether there is a coherent or heterogeneous response in millennial hydroclimate over tropical South America and to clearly understand the forcing mechanisms behind it. Our isotope-enabled transient simulations fill the gap in speleothem reconstructions to capture a complete picture of millennial precipitation/
- Award ID(s):
- 2002506
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10423813
- Publisher / Repository:
- American Meteorological Society
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Climate
- Volume:
- 36
- Issue:
- 14
- ISSN:
- 0894-8755
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 4691-4707
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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δ 18O signal in ice cores from the Quelccaya Ice Cap (QIC), Peru, corresponds with and has been used to reconstruct Niño region sea surface temperatures (SSTs), but the physical mechanisms that tie El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)‐related equatorial Pacific SSTs to snowδ 18O at 5,680 m in the Andes have not been fully established. We use a proxy system model to simulate how QIC snowδ 18O varies by ENSO phase. The model accurately simulates higher and lowerδ 18O values during El Niño and La Niña, respectively. We then explore the relative roles of ENSO forcing on different components of the forward model: (i) the seasonality and amount of snow gain and loss at the QIC, (ii) the initial water vaporδ 18O values, and (iii) regional temperature. Most (more than two thirds) of the ENSO‐related variability in the QICδ 18O can be accounted for by ENSO's influence on South American summer monsoon (SASM) activity and the resulting change in the initial water vapor isotopic composition. The initial water vaporδ 18O values are affected by the strength of upstream convection associated with the SASM. Since convection over the Amazon is enhanced during La Niña, the water vapor over the western Amazon Basin—which serves as moisture source for snowfall on QIC—is characterized by more negativeδ 18O values. In the forward model, higher initial water vaporδ ‐values during El Niño yield higher snowδ 18O at the QIC. Our results clarify that the ENSO‐related isotope signal on Quelccaya should not be interpreted as a simple temperature response. -
In the past decade, Huagapo and Pacupahuain Caves in the Central Peruvian Andes have become sources of speleothem oxygen isotope (δ18O) paleoclimate records. These studies identify the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) as the main climate system controlling δ18O variability. While this interpretation is verified through inter-proxy record comparisons on millennial scales, interpretation of the high-resolution variability within these records is limited by a lack of modern proxy calibration studies at these sites. Here we present results from a modern cave monitoring study undertaken to address the controls on the δ18O values of precipitation at these sites and how surface and in-cave processes affect the δ18O value of speleothem calcite. Speleothem calcite δ18O values reflect an integrated signal of atmospheric processes (e.g., rainout, Raleigh distillation, upstream moisture recycling, changes in moisture source), evaporation and mixing during infiltration in the soil and epikarst, and in-cave processes such as degassing and evaporation. In consideration of these factors, we compare isotope trends in precipitation, cave drip water and modern farmed calcite from the two cave sites. We find that precipitationδ18O values during peak monsoon activity (January -February) shows considerable inter-annual variation with averages of -16.7‰ for 2020, -18.5‰ for 2021 and -13.8‰ in 2022. We investigate the source of this variability in regional atmospheric circulation patterns using weather station data and back trajectories. The mean annual precipitation (MAP) from outside Huagapo Cave is δ18O = -15.5+/- 6‰, while seasonal samples of drip water δ18O = -14.5+/- 1‰, are offset from MAP possibly due to evaporation during infiltration. Cave drip waterδ18O has low variability over inter-annual and seasonal timescales indicating homogenization in the epikarst. Using geochemical and sensor data (e.g. cave relative humidity, temperature, and drip rate) as inputs for a karst based forward model, we simulate modern speleothem δ18O to quantitatively assess the combined effects of hydroclimate processes integration to the isotope record.more » « less
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Abstract The Yucatán Peninsula (YP) has a complex hydroclimate with many proposed drivers of interannual and longer‐term variability, ranging from coupled ocean–atmosphere processes to frequency of tropical cyclones. The mid‐Holocene, a time of higher Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, provides an opportunity to test the relationship between YP precipitation and ocean temperature. Here, we present a new, ∼annually resolved speleothem record of stable isotope (δ18O and δ13C) and trace element (Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca) ratios for a section of the mid‐Holocene (5.2–5.7 kyr BP), before extensive agriculture began in the region. A meter‐long stalagmite from Río Secreto, a cave system in Playa del Carmen, Mexico, was dated using U–Th geochronology and layer counting, yielding multidecadal age uncertainty (median 2SD of ±70 years). New proxy data were compared to an existing late Holocene stalagmite record from the same cave system, allowing us to examine changes in hydrology over time and to paleoclimate records from the southern YP. The δ18O, δ13C, and Mg/Ca data consistently indicate higher mean precipitation and lower precipitation variability during the mid‐Holocene compared to the late Holocene. Despite this reduced variability, multidecadal precipitation variations were persistent in regional hydroclimate during the mid‐Holocene. We therefore conclude that higher summer insolation led to increased mean precipitation and decreased precipitation variability in the northern YP but that the region is susceptible to dry periods across climate mean states. Given projected decreases in wet season precipitation in the YP’s near future, we suggest that climate mitigation strategies emphasize drought preparation.
