An official website of the United States government
Abstract Regional long‐term monitoring can enhance the detection of biodiversity declines associated with climate change, improving future projections by reducing reliance on space‐for‐time substitution and increasing scalability. Rodents are diverse and important consumers in drylands, regions defined by the scarcity of water that cover 45% of Earth's land surface and face increasingly drier and more variable climates. We analyzed abundance data for 22 rodent species across grassland, shrubland, ecotone, and woodland ecosystems in the southwestern USA. Two time series (1995–2006 and 2004–2013) coincided with phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which influences drought in southwestern North America. Regionally, rodent species diversity declined 20%–35%, with greater losses during the later time period. Abundance also declined regionally, but only during 2004–2013, with losses of 5% of animals captured. During the first time series (wetter climate), plant productivity outranked climate variables as the best regional predictor of rodent abundance for 70% of taxa, whereas during the second period (drier climate), climate best explained variation in abundance for 60% of taxa. Temporal dynamics in diversity and abundance differed spatially among ecosystems, with the largest declines in woodlands and shrublands of central New Mexico and Colorado. Which species were winners or losers under increasing drought and amplified interannual variability in drought depended on ecosystem type and the phase of the PDO. Fewer taxa were significant winners (18%) than losers (30%) under drought, but the identities of winners and losers differed among ecosystems for 70% of taxa. Our results suggest that the sensitivities of rodent species to climate contributed to regional declines in diversity and abundance during 1995–2013. Whether these changes portend future declines in drought‐sensitive consumers in the southwestern USA will depend on the climate during the next major PDO cycle.
more »
« less
Rodent declines track regional climate variability in North American drylands
Regional long-term monitoring can enhance the detection of biodiversity declines associated with climate change, improving future projections by reducing reliance on space-for-time substitution and increasing scalability. Rodents are diverse and important consumers in drylands, which cover ~45% of Earth’s land surface and face increasingly drier and more variable climates. Here, we analyzed abundance data for 22 rodent species across grassland, shrubland, ecotone, and woodland habitats in the southwestern USA. We captured two time series: 1995-2006 and 2004-2013 that coincide with phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which influences drought in southwestern North America. Regionally, rodent species diversity declined 20-35%, with greater losses during the later time period. Abundance also declined regionally, but only during 2004-2013, with losses of ~5% of animals captured. During the first time series (PDO wet phase), plant productivity outranked climate variables as the best regional predictor of rodent abundance for 70% of taxa, whereas during the second period (dry phase), climate best explained rodent abundance for 60% of taxa. Temporal dynamics in rodent diversity and abundance differed spatially among habitats and sites, with the largest declines in woodlands and shrublands of central New Mexico and Colorado. Both habitat type and phase of the PDO modulated which species were winners or losers under increasing drought and amplified interannual variability in drought. Fewer taxa were significant winners (18%) than losers (30%) under drought, but the identities of winners and losers differed among habitats for 70% of taxa. Our results suggest that the sensitivities of rodent species to climate contributed to regional declines in diversity and abundance during 1995 - 2013. Whether these changes portend future declines in drought-sensitive consumers in the southwestern USA will depend on the climate during the next major phase of the PDO.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 1655499
- PAR ID:
- 10424101
- Publisher / Repository:
- Environmental Data Initiative
- Date Published:
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Drought variability is associated with global oceanic and atmospheric teleconnections driven by, among others, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Climate teleconnections with a region’s rainfall, with drought and flooding implications, should be part of short- and long-term water management planning and operations. In this study, the link between drought and climatic drivers was assessed by using historical data from 110 years of regional rainfall in southern Florida and the Everglades. The objective was to evaluate historical drought and its link with global oceanic and atmospheric teleconnections. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) assesses regional historical drought in 3-, 6-, 12-, 24-, 36-, 48-, and 60-month periods. Each of the SPIs was used to analyze the association of different magnitudes of drought with ENSO, AMO, and PDO. Historical drought evaluated in different time windows indicated that there is a wet and dry cycle in the regional hydrology, where the area is currently in the wet phase of the fluctuation since 1995 with some drought years in between. Regional historical rainfall anomaly and drought index relationships with each driver and combination of drivers were statistically evaluated. The impact of ENSO fluctuation is limited to short-period rainfall variability, whereas long-period influence is from AMO and PDO.more » « less
-
Abrupt transitions in a southwest USA desert grassland related to the P acific D ecadal O scillationAbstract Prediction of abrupt ecosystem transitions resulting from climatic change will be an essential element of adaptation strategies in the coming decades. In the arid southwest USA, the collapse and recovery of long‐lived perennial grasses have important effects on ecosystem services, but the causes of these variations have been poorly understood. Here we use a quality‐controlled vegetation monitoring dataset initiated in 1915 to show that grass cover dynamics during the 20th century were closely correlated to the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) index. The relationship out‐performed models correlating grasses to yearly precipitation and drought indices, suggesting that ecosystem transitions attributed only to local disturbances were instead influenced by climate teleconnections. Shifts in PDO phase over time were associated with the persistent loss of core grass species and recovery of transient species, so recovery of grasses in aggregate concealed significant changes in species composition. However, the relationship between PDO and grass cover broke down after 1995; grass cover is consistently lower than PDO would predict. The decoupling of grass cover from the PDO suggests that a threshold had been crossed in which warming or land degradation overwhelmed the ability of any grass species to recover during favorable periods.more » « less
-
Shrub encroachment is a global phenomenon. Both the causes and consequences of shrub encroachment vary regionally and globally. In the southwestern US a common native C3 shrub species, creosotebush, has invaded millions of hectares of arid and semi-arid C4-dominated grassland. At the Sevilleta LTER site, it appears that the grassland-shrubland ecotone is relatively stable, but infill by creosotebush continues to occur. The consequences of shrub encroachment have been and continue to be carefully documented, but the ecological drivers of shrub encroachment in the southwestern US are not well known. One key factor that may promote shrub encroachment is grazing by domestic livestock. However, multiple environmental drivers have changed over the 150 years during which shrub expansion has occurred through the southwestern US. Temperatures are warmer, atmospheric CO2 has increased, drought and rainy cycles have occurred, and grazing pressure has decreased. From our prior research we know that prolonged drought greatly reduces the abundance of native grasses while having limited impact on the abundance of creosotebush in the grass-shrub ecotone. So once established, creosotebush populations are persistent and resistant to climate cycles. We also know that creosotebush seedlings tend to appear primarily when rainfall during the summer monsoon is well above average. However, high rainfall years also stimulate the growth of the dominant grasses creating a competitive environment that may not favor seedling establishment and survival. The purpose of the Mega-Monsoon Experiment (MegaME) is twofold. First, this experiment will determine if high rainfall years coupled with (simulated) grazing promote the establishment and growth of creosotebush seedlings in the grassland-shrubland ecotone at Sevilleta, thus promoting infill and expansion of creosotebush into native grassland. Second, MegaME will determine if a sequence of wet summer monsoons will promote the establishment and growth of native C4 grasses in areas where creosotebush is now dominant, thus demonstrating that high rainfall and dispersal limitation prevent grassland expansion into creosotebush shrubland.more » « less
-
Addressing the ongoing biodiversity crisis requires identifying the winners and losers of global change. Species are often categorized based on how they respond to habitat loss; for example, species restricted to natural environments, those that most often occur in anthropogenic habitats, and generalists that do well in both. However, species might switch habitat affiliations across time and space: an organism may venture into human-modified areas in benign regions but retreat into thermally buffered forested habitats in areas with high temperatures. Here, we apply community occupancy models to a large-scale camera trapping dataset with 29 mammal species distributed over 2,485 sites across the continental United States, to ask three questions. First, are species’ responses to forest and anthropogenic habitats consistent across continental scales? Second, do macroclimatic conditions explain spatial variation in species responses to land use? Third, can species traits elucidate which taxa are most likely to show climate-dependent habitat associations? We found that all species exhibited significant spatial variation in how they respond to land-use, tending to avoid anthropogenic areas and increasingly use forests in hotter regions. In the hottest regions, species occupancy was 50% higher in forested compared to open habitats, whereas in the coldest regions, the trend reversed. Larger species with larger ranges, herbivores, and primary predators were more likely to change their habitat affiliations than top predators, which consistently affiliated with high forest cover. Our findings suggest that climatic conditions influence species’ space-use and that maintaining forest cover can help protect mammals from warming climates.more » « less
