The decline in background extinction rates of marine animals through geologic time is an established but unexplained feature of the Phanerozoic fossil record. There is also growing consensus that the ocean and atmosphere did not become oxygenated to near-modern levels until the mid-Paleozoic, coinciding with the onset of generally lower extinction rates. Physiological theory provides us with a possible causal link between these two observations—predicting that the synergistic impacts of oxygen and temperature on aerobic respiration would have made marine animals more vulnerable to ocean warming events during periods of limited surface oxygenation. Here, we evaluate the hypothesis that changes in surface oxygenation exerted a first-order control on extinction rates through the Phanerozoic using a combined Earth system and ecophysiological modeling approach. We find that although continental configuration, the efficiency of the biological carbon pump in the ocean, and initial climate state all impact the magnitude of modeled biodiversity loss across simulated warming events, atmospheric oxygen is the dominant predictor of extinction vulnerability, with metabolic habitat viability and global ecophysiotype extinction exhibiting inflection points around 40% of present atmospheric oxygen. Given this is the broad upper limit for estimates of early Paleozoic oxygen levels, our results are consistent with the relative frequency of high-magnitude extinction events (particularly those not included in the canonical big five mass extinctions) early in the Phanerozoic being a direct consequence of limited early Paleozoic oxygenation and temperature-dependent hypoxia responses.
Selectivity of mass extinctions: Patterns, processes, and future directions
Abstract A central question in the study of mass extinction is whether these events simply intensify background extinction processes and patterns versus change the driving mechanisms and associated patterns of selectivity. Over the past two decades, aided by the development of new fossil occurrence databases, selectivity patterns associated with mass extinction have become increasingly well quantified and their differences from background patterns established. In general, differences in geographic range matter less during mass extinction than during background intervals, while differences in respiratory and circulatory anatomy that may correlate with tolerance to rapid change in oxygen availability, temperature, and pH show greater evidence of selectivity during mass extinction. The recent expansion of physiological experiments on living representatives of diverse clades and the development of simple, quantitative theories linking temperature and oxygen availability to the extent of viable habitat in the oceans have enabled the use of Earth system models to link geochemical proxy constraints on environmental change with quantitative predictions of the amount and biogeography of habitat loss. Early indications are that the interaction between physiological traits and environmental change can explain substantial proportions of observed extinction selectivity for at least some mass extinction events. A remaining challenge is quantifying the effects of primary extinction resulting from the limits of physiological tolerance versus secondary extinction resulting from the loss of taxa on which a given species depended ecologically. The calibration of physiology-based models to past extinction events will enhance their value in prediction and mitigation efforts related to the current biodiversity crisis.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2121392
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10424314
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Cambridge Prisms: Extinction
- Volume:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2755-0958
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract A key challenge in conservation biology is that not all species are equally likely to go extinct when faced with a disturbance, but there are multiple overlapping reasons for such differences in extinction probability. Differences in species extinction risk may represent extinction selectivity, a non‐random process by which species’ risks of extinction are caused by differences in fitness based on traits. Additionally, rare species with low abundances and/or occupancies are more likely to go extinct than common species for reasons of random chance alone, that is, bad luck. Unless ecologists and conservation biologists can disentangle random and selective extinction processes, then the prediction and prevention of future extinctions will continue to be an elusive challenge.
We suggest that a modified version of a common null model procedure, rarefaction, can be used to disentangle the influence of stochastic species loss from selective non‐random processes. To this end we applied a rarefaction‐based null model to three published data sets to characterize the influence of species rarity in driving biodiversity loss following three biodiversity loss events: (a) disease‐associated bat declines; (b) disease‐associated amphibian declines; and (c) habitat loss and invasive species‐associated gastropod declines. For each case study, we used rarefaction to generate null expectations of biodiversity loss and species‐specific extinction probabilities.
In each of our case studies, we find evidence for both random and non‐random (selective) extinctions. Our findings highlight the importance of explicitly considering that some species extinctions are the result of stochastic processes. In other words, we find significant evidence for bad luck in the extinction process.
Policy implications . Our results suggest that rarefaction can be used to disentangle random and non‐random extinctions and guide management decisions. For example, rarefaction can be used retrospectively to identify when declines of at‐risk species are likely to result from selectivity, versus random chance. Rarefaction can also be used prospectively to formulate minimum predictions of species loss in response to hypothetical disturbances. Given its minimal data requirements and familiarity among ecologists, rarefaction may be an efficient and versatile tool for identifying and protecting species that are most vulnerable to global extinction. -
Anthropogenic climate change is expected to alter global hydrological regimes in the near future, resulting in significant changes to water availability. However, the magnitude of such changes will vary regionally. The Iberian Peninsula, and specifically Portugal, has been identified by climate model projections as an area where climate change will increase drought frequency and severity. Climate in the Iberian Peninsula is impacted by both internal and external climate modes, potentially producing different precipitation patterns within a small geographic region. Thus, the development of regional highly resolved paleoclimate records from Portugal is critical for improving the predictive capability of regional climate models under future warming scenarios and to determine the extent to which different teleconnection patterns are influencing hydroclimate. Here we present a near annually resolved stable carbon isotope (δ13C) and oxygen (δ18O) isotope time-series from three stalagmites from the Algarve region of southern Portugal from two caves within 2.3 km of each other. U/Th dating indicates that our composite record spans the last millennia continuously through 2019 CE. Two stalagmites (GIA-19-1 and C-18-1) stopped growing around 1550 CE, during a dry interval, and sample GIA-19-2 grew continuously since the 17th century. GIA-19-2, with sub-annual resolution, is compared to modern instrumental records to evaluate the influence of specific environmental controls, including temperature and precipitation amounts. Isotope data from all three stalagmites exhibit substantial multidecadal variability indicating relatively wet and dry intervals. Based on our initial results, it is likely that both temperature and precipitation amount effects are the dominant controls on isotopic variability in these stalagmites. Comparison of the GIA-19-2 oxygen isotope time-series with the instrumental record and reconstructed index of the East Atlantic (EA) pattern (1650 CE to present) shows strong coherence with a reconstructed EA index (1650-2018 CE) and an instrumental EA index (1950 to present). Hence, variability in Southern Portuguese hydroclimate associated with the EA mode should also be considered by policy makers planners as they prepare for future warming and associated water stresses.more » « less
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1017/ext.2023.10
