The occurrence of St. Patrick's Day (17 March) geomagnetic storms during two different years (2013 and 2015) with similar solar flux levels but varying storm intensity provided an opportunity to compare and contrast the responses of the ionosphere‐thermosphere (IT) system to different levels of geomagnetic activity. The evolution of positive ionospheric storms at the southern polar stations Bharati (76.6°S MLAT) and Davis (76.2°S MLAT) and its causative connection to the solar wind driving mechanisms during these storms has been investigated in this paper. During the main phase of both the storms, significant enhancements in TEC and phase scintillation were observed in the magnetic noon/ midnight period at Bharati and Davis. The TEC in the midnight sector on 17 March 2015 was significantly higher compared to that on 17 March 2013, in line with the storm intensity. The TEC enhancements during both the storm events are associated with the formation of the storm‐enhanced densities (SEDs)/tongue of ionization (TOI). The strong and sustained magnetopause erosion led to the prevalence of stronger storm time electric fields (prompt penetration electric field (PPEF)/subauroral polarization streams (SAPS)) for long duration on 17 March 2015. This combined with the action of neutral winds at midlatitudes favored the formation of higher plasma densities in the regions of SED formation on this day. The same was weaker during the 17 March 2013 storm due to the fast fluctuating nature of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)
During intense geomagnetic storms, the magnetopause can move in as far as geosynchronous orbit, leaving the satellites in that orbit out in the magnetosheath. Spacecraft operators turn to numerical models to predict the response of the magnetopause to solar wind conditions, but the predictions of the models are not always accurate. This study investigates four storms with a magnetopause crossing by at least one GOES satellite, using four magnetohydrodynamic models at NASA's Community Coordinated Modeling Center to simulate the events, and analyzes the results to investigate the reasons for errors in the predictions. Two main reasons can explain most of the erroneous predictions. First, the solar wind input to the simulations often contains features measured near the L1 point that did not eventually arrive at Earth; incorrect predictions during such periods are due to the solar wind input rather than to the models themselves. Second, while the models do well when the primary driver of magnetopause motion is a variation in the solar wind density, they tend to overpredict or underpredict the integrated Birkeland currents and their effects during times of strong negative interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10425201
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Space Weather
- Volume:
- 21
- Issue:
- 6
- ISSN:
- 1542-7390
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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