Projecting ecological and evolutionary responses to variable and changing environments is
central to anticipating and managing impacts to biodiversity and ecosystems. Current model-
ing approaches are largely phenomenological and often fail to accurately project responses
due to numerous biological processes at multiple levels of biological organization responding
to environmental variation at varied spatial and temporal scales. Limited mechanistic under-
standing of organismal responses to environmental variability and extremes also restricts
predictive capacity. We outline a strategy for identifying and modeling the key organismal
mechanisms across levels of biological organization that mediate ecological and evolutionary
responses to environmental variation. A central component of this strategy is quantifying
timescales and magnitudes of climatic variability and how organisms experience them. We
highlight recent empirical research that builds this information and suggest how to design
future experiments that can produce more generalizable principles. We discuss how to create
biologically informed projections in a feasible way by combining statistical and mechanistic
approaches. Predictions will inform both fundamental and practical questions at the interface
of ecology, evolution, and Earth science such as how organisms experience, adapt to, and
respond to environmental variation at multiple hierarchical spatial and temporal scales.
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Characterizing biological responses to climate variability and extremes to improve biodiversity projections
Projecting ecological and evolutionary responses to variable and changing environments is central to anticipating and managing impacts to biodiversity and ecosystems. Current modeling approaches are largely phenomenological and often fail to accurately project responses due to numerous biological processes at multiple levels of biological organization responding to environmental variation at varied spatial and temporal scales. Limited mechanistic understanding of organismal responses to environmental variability and extremes also restricts predictive capacity. We outline a strategy for identifying and modeling the key organismal mechanisms across levels of biological organization that mediate ecological and evolutionary responses to environmental variation. A central component of this strategy is quantifying timescales and magnitudes of climatic variability and how organisms experience them. We highlight recent empirical research that builds this information and suggest how to design future experiments that can produce more generalizable principles. We discuss how to create biologically informed projections in a feasible way by combining statistical and mechanistic approaches. Predictions will inform both fundamental and practical questions at the interface of ecology, evolution, and Earth science such as how organisms experience, adapt to, and respond to environmental variation at multiple hierarchical spatial and temporal scales.
more »
« less
- PAR ID:
- 10425681
- Editor(s):
- Moura, Mario R.
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- PLOS Climate
- Volume:
- 2
- Issue:
- 6
- ISSN:
- 2767-3200
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- e0000226
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000226
