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1. Characterizing biological responses to climate variability and extremes to improve biodiversity projections

   https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000226  

   Buckley, Lauren B.; Carrington, Emily; Dillon, Michael E.; García-Robledo, Carlos; Roberts, Steven B.; Wegrzyn, Jill L.; Urban, Mark C. (June 2023, PLOS Climate)

   Moura, Mario R. (Ed.)

   Projecting ecological and evolutionary responses to variable and changing environments is central to anticipating and managing impacts to biodiversity and ecosystems. Current modeling approaches are largely phenomenological and often fail to accurately project responses due to numerous biological processes at multiple levels of biological organization responding to environmental variation at varied spatial and temporal scales. Limited mechanistic understanding of organismal responses to environmental variability and extremes also restricts predictive capacity. We outline a strategy for identifying and modeling the key organismal mechanisms across levels of biological organization that mediate ecological and evolutionary responses to environmental variation. A central component of this strategy is quantifying timescales and magnitudes of climatic variability and how organisms experience them. We highlight recent empirical research that builds this information and suggest how to design future experiments that can produce more generalizable principles. We discuss how to create biologically informed projections in a feasible way by combining statistical and mechanistic approaches. Predictions will inform both fundamental and practical questions at the interface of ecology, evolution, and Earth science such as how organisms experience, adapt to, and respond to environmental variation at multiple hierarchical spatial and temporal scales. 

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2. Introduction to the Symposium: Stress Phenotype: Linking Molecular, Cellular, and Physiological Stress Responses to Fitness

   https://doi.org/10.1093/icb/icz098  

   Heidinger, Britt J.; Wada, Haruka (June 2019, Integrative and Comparative Biology)

   Abstract Although most organisms respond to environmental and social stressors by initiating a stress response that is expected to increase fitness, we currently lack information about how the stress response is integrated across levels of biological organization. Organismal biologists and physiological ecologists have tended to focus on questions related to how the glucocorticoid stress response varies across ecological contexts and is related to fitness, whereas, molecular and cellular biologists have typically investigated the fundamental underlying mechanisms. However, it is becoming increasingly clear that a comprehensive understanding of the evolution of the stress response will require integrative studies that span levels of analyses. This information will be critical for predicting how selection will influence the expression of this complex phenotype at the organismal level, as well as how the integration of the underlying mechanisms will influence the evolutionary response to selection. As diverse organisms are expected to experience rising stress exposure in the face of anthropogenic disturbance and climate change, this information is becoming increasingly urgent. The overarching goals of this symposium were to bring together researchers that study the stress response across levels of organization in diverse organisms to identify important gaps in knowledge and novel research approaches that could be used to advance the field. 

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3. Understanding temporal variability across trophic levels and spatial scales in freshwater ecosystems

   https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.4219  

   Siqueira, Tadeu; Hawkins, Charles P.; Olden, Julian D.; Tonkin, Jonathan; Comte, Lise; Saito, Victor S.; Anderson, Thomas L.; Barbosa, Gedimar P.; Bonada, Núria; Bonecker, Claudia C.; et al (December 2023, Ecology)

   Abstract A tenet of ecology is that temporal variability in ecological structure and processes tends to decrease with increasing spatial scales (from locales to regions) and levels of biological organization (from populations to communities). However, patterns in temporal variability across trophic levels and the mechanisms that produce them remain poorly understood. Here we analyzed the abundance time series of spatially structured communities (i.e., metacommunities) spanning basal resources to top predators from 355 freshwater sites across three continents. Specifically, we used a hierarchical partitioning method to disentangle the propagation of temporal variability in abundance across spatial scales and trophic levels. We then used structural equation modeling to determine if the strength and direction of relationships between temporal variability, synchrony, biodiversity, and environmental and spatial settings depended on trophic level and spatial scale. We found that temporal variability in abundance decreased from producers to tertiary consumers but did so mainly at the local scale. Species population synchrony within sites increased with trophic level, whereas synchrony among communities decreased. At the local scale, temporal variability in precipitation and species diversity were associated with population variability (linear partial coefficient, β = 0.23) and population synchrony (β = −0.39) similarly across trophic levels, respectively. At the regional scale, community synchrony was not related to climatic or spatial predictors, but the strength of relationships between metacommunity variability and community synchrony decreased systematically from top predators (β = 0.73) to secondary consumers (β = 0.54), to primary consumers (β = 0.30) to producers (β = 0). Our results suggest that mobile predators may often stabilize metacommunities by buffering variability that originates at the base of food webs. This finding illustrates that the trophic structure of metacommunities, which integrates variation in organismal body size and its correlates, should be considered when investigating ecological stability in natural systems. More broadly, our work advances the notion that temporal stability is an emergent property of ecosystems that may be threatened in complex ways by biodiversity loss and habitat fragmentation. 

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4. Identifying ecological and evolutionary research targets and risks in climate change studies to break barriers to broad inference

   https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000320  

   Love, Sarah J; Edwards, Joseph D; Barnes, Caitlin N; d’Entremont, Tyler W; Hord, Ashlynn M; Nytko, Alivia G; Sero, Nadejda B; Bayliss, Shannon_L J; Kivlin, Stephanie N; Bailey, Joseph K (December 2023, PLOS Climate)

   Males, Jamie (Ed.)

   Understanding the responses of plants, microbes, and their interactions to long-term climate change is essential to identifying the traits, genes, and functions of organisms that maintain ecosystem stability and function of the biosphere. However, many studies investigating organismal responses to climate change are limited in their scope along several key ecological, evolutionary, and environmental axes, creating barriers to broader inference. Broad inference, or the ability to apply and validate findings across these axes, is a vital component of achieving climate preparedness in the future. Breaking barriers to broad inference requires accurate cross-ecosystem interpretability and the identification of reliable frameworks for how these responses will manifest. Current approaches have generated a valuable, yet sometimes contradictory or context dependent, understanding of responses to climate change factors from the organismal- to ecosystem-level. In this synthesis, we use plants, soil microbial communities, and their interactions as examples to identify five major barriers to broad inference and resultant target research areas. We also explain risks associated with disregarding these barriers to broad inference and potential approaches to overcoming them. Developing and funding experimental frameworks that integrate basic ecological and evolutionary principles and are designed to capture broad inference across levels of organization is necessary to further our understanding of climate change on large scales. 

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5. Evolution of Thermal Sensitivity in Changing and Variable Climates

   https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-011521-102856  

   Buckley, Lauren B.; Kingsolver, Joel G. (November 2021, Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics)

   Evolutionary adaptation to temperature and climate depends on both the extent to which organisms experience spatial and temporal environmental variation (exposure) and how responsive they are to the environmental variation (sensitivity). Theoretical models and experiments suggesting substantial potential for thermal adaptation have largely omitted realistic environmental variation. Environmental variation can drive fluctuations in selection that slow adaptive evolution. We review how carefully filtering environmental conditions based on how organisms experience their environment and further considering organismal sensitivity can improve predictions of thermal adaptation. We contrast taxa differing in exposure and sensitivity. Plasticity can increase the rate of evolutionary adaptation in taxa exposed to pronounced environmental variation. However, forms of plasticity that severely limit exposure, such as behavioral thermoregulation and phenological shifts, can hinder thermal adaptation. Despite examples of rapid thermal adaptation, experimental studies often reveal evolutionary constraints. Further investigating these constraints and issues of timescale and thermal history are needed to predict evolutionary adaptation and, consequently, population persistence in changing and variable environments. 

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