skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

Explore Research Products in the PAR
It may take a few hours for recently added research products to appear in PAR search results.


Title: The dynamics of ideology drift among U.S. Supreme Court justices: A functional data analysis
We study the U.S. Supreme Court dynamics by analyzing the temporal evolution of the underlying policy positions of the Supreme Court Justices as reflected by their actual voting data, using functional data analysis methods. The proposed fully flexible nonparametric method makes it possible to dissect the time-dynamics of policy positions at the level of individual Justices, as well as providing a comprehensive view of the ideology evolution over the history of Supreme Court since its establishment. In addition to quantifying individual Justice’s policy positions, we uncover average changes over time and also the major patterns of change over time. Additionally, our approach allows for representing highly complex dynamic trajectories by a few principal components which complements other models of analyzing and predicting court behavior.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2014626
PAR ID:
10428687
Author(s) / Creator(s):
;
Editor(s):
Guimerà, Roger
Date Published:
Journal Name:
PLOS ONE
Volume:
17
Issue:
7
ISSN:
1932-6203
Page Range / eLocation ID:
e0269598
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. ; ; ; ; ; ; (, Journal of Law and Courts)
    Clark, Tom (Ed.)
    Abstract Do lower court judges influence the content of Supreme Court opinions in the United Kingdom? Leveraging original data, we analyze opinion language adoption practices of the UK Supreme Court. We advance a theory where the justices’ choices to adopt language from lower court opinions are influenced by Supreme Court-level attributes and Court of Appeal case characteristics. We uncover compelling evidence that UK Supreme Court justices incorporate language extensively from the written opinions of the Court of Appeal of England and Wales. Our findings have significant implications for opinion formulation, doctrinal development, and higher and lower court interactions within comparative courts. 
    more » « less
  2. ; ; (, Discourse Studies)
    Justices on the United States Supreme Court use rhetorical strategies to maintain institutional legitimacy. In the court opinion, a strategy called the monologic voice presents a flattering depiction of the Court. The monologic voice occurs through two tones, the individualistic and collective, which respectively maintain the Justices’ legitimacy through critique and the Court’s legitimacy through unification. We train large language models to identify these rhetorical features in 15,291 modern Supreme Court opinions, issued between 1946 and 2022. While the fraction of collective and individualistic tones has been relatively consistent between 1946 and 2022, the Rehnquist Court used the collective tone at a higher rate than any other Court. In recent terms, 2021 and 2022, we find suggestions of another rhetorical shift, as all Associate Justices of the Roberts Court, excluding Chief Justice Roberts, used the individualistic tone at a historically high rate. 
    more » « less
  3. ; (, Political Analysis)
    Abstract We develop a new class of spatial voting models for binary preference data that can accommodate both monotonic and non-monotonic response functions, and are more flexible than alternative “unfolding” models previously introduced in the literature. We then use these models to estimate revealed preferences for legislators in the U.S. House of Representatives and justices on the U.S. Supreme Court. The results from these applications indicate that the new models provide superior complexity-adjusted performance to various alternatives and that the additional flexibility leads to preferences’ estimates that more closely match the perceived ideological positions of legislators and justices. 
    more » « less
  4. ; (, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics)
    Abstract Latent factor models are widely used in the social and behavioural sciences as scaling tools to map discrete multivariate outcomes into low-dimensional, continuous scales. In political science, dynamic versions of classical factor models have been widely used to study the evolution of justices’ preferences in multi-judge courts. In this paper, we discuss a new dynamic factor model that relies on a latent circular space that can accommodate voting behaviours in which justices commonly understood to be on opposite ends of the ideological spectrum vote together on a substantial number of otherwise closely divided opinions. We apply this model to data on nonunanimous decisions made by the US Supreme Court between 1937 and 2021, and show that for most of this period, voting patterns can be better described by a circular latent space. 
    more » « less
  5. (, Mathematical and Computational Applications)
    null (Ed.)
    The voting patterns of the nine justices on the United States Supreme Court continue to fascinate and perplex observers of the Court. While it is commonly understood that the division of the justices into a liberal branch and a conservative branch inevitably drives many case outcomes, there are finer, less transparent divisions within these two main branches that have proven difficult to extract empirically. This study imports methods from evolutionary biology to help illuminate the intricate and often overlooked branching structure of the justices’ voting behavior. Specifically, phylogenetic tree estimation based on voting disagreement rates is used to extend ideal point estimation to the non-Euclidean setting of hyperbolic metrics. After introducing this framework, comparing it to one- and two-dimensional multidimensional scaling, and arguing that it flexibly captures important higher-dimensional voting behavior, a handful of potential ways to apply this tool are presented. The emphasis throughout is on interpreting these judicial trees and extracting qualitative insights from them. 
    more » « less
  • Citation Formats
  • MLA
  • APA
  • Chicago
  • BibTeX
  • Save / Share this Record
  • Send to Email