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Abstract Several key issues in the simple time-dependent theories of tropical cyclone (TC) intensification developed in recent years remain, including the lack of a closure for the pressure dependence of saturation enthalpy at sea surface temperature (SST) under the eyewall and the definition of environmental conditions, such as the boundary layer enthalpy in TC environment and the TC outflow-layer temperature. In this study, some refinements to the most recent time-dependent theory of TC intensification have been accomplished to resolve those issues. The first is the construction of a functional relationship between the surface pressure under the eyewall and the TC intensity, which is derived using the cyclostrophic wind balance and calibrated using full-physics axisymmetric model simulations. The second is the definition of TC environment that explicitly includes the air–sea temperature difference. The third is the TC outflow-layer temperature parameterized as a linear function of SST based on global reanalysis data. With these refinements, the updated time-dependent theory becomes self-contained and can give both the intensity-dependent TC intensification rate (IR) and the maximum potential intensity (MPI) under given environmental thermodynamic conditions. It is shown that the pressure dependence of saturation enthalpy at SST can lead to an increase in the TC MPI and IR by about half of that induced by dissipative heating due to surface friction. Results also show that both MPI and IR increase with increasing SST, surface enthalpy exchange coefficient, environmental air–sea temperature difference, and decreasing environmental boundary layer relative humidity, but the maximum IR is insensitive to surface drag coefficient. Significance StatementA new advancement in the recent decade is the development of simple time-dependent theories of tropical cyclone (TC) intensification, which can provide quantitative understanding of TC intensity change. However, several key issues in these simple time-dependent theories remain, including the lack of a closure for the pressure dependence of saturation enthalpy at sea surface temperature under the eyewall and the definition of environmental conditions. These are resolved in this study with several refinements, which make the most recent time-dependent theory of TC intensification self-contained and practical.
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Tropical Cyclone Potential Size
Abstract A model for tropical cyclone (TC) potential size (PS), which is capable of predicting the equilibrium outer radius of a TC solely from environmental parameters, is proposed. The model combines an updated Carnot cycle model with a physical model for the wind profile, which serve as energetic and dynamic constraints, respectively, on the minimum pressure. Physically, the Carnot cycle model defines how much the surface pressure can be dropped energetically, and the wind profile model defines how large the steady-state storm needs to be to yield that pressure drop for a given maximum wind speed. The model yields an intrinsic length scale V Carnot / f , with f the Coriolis parameter, V Carnot similar to the potential intensity V p , but without a dependence on the surface exchange coefficients of enthalpy C k and momentum C d . Analytic tests with the theory varying outflow temperature, sea surface temperature (SST), and f demonstrate that the model predictions are qualitatively consistent with the V p / f scaling for outer size found in past work. The model also predicts a weak dependence of outer size on C d , C k , and horizontal mixing length l h of turbulence, consistent with numerical simulation results. Idealized numerical simulation experiments with varied tropopause temperature, SST, f , C d , C k , and l h show that the model performs well in predicting the simulated outer radius. The V Carnot / f scaling also better captures the dependence of simulated TC size on SST than V p / f . Overall, the model appears to capture the essential physics that determine equilibrium TC size on the f plane.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1945113
- PAR ID:
- 10430458
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
- Volume:
- 79
- Issue:
- 11
- ISSN:
- 0022-4928
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 3001 to 3025
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-21-0325.1
