Abstract Spatial synchrony is the tendency for population fluctuations to be correlated among different locations. This phenomenon is a ubiquitous feature of population dynamics and is important for ecosystem stability, but several aspects of synchrony remain unresolved. In particular, the extent to which any particular mechanism, such as dispersal, contributes to observed synchrony in natural populations has been difficult to determine. To address this gap, we leveraged recent methodological improvements to determine how dispersal structures synchrony in giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera), a global marine foundation species that has served as a useful system for understanding synchrony. We quantified population synchrony and fecundity with satellite imagery across 11 years and 880 km of coastline in southern California, USA, and estimated propagule dispersal probabilities using a high‐resolution ocean circulation model. Using matrix regression models that control for the influence of geographic distance, resources (seawater nitrate), and disturbance (destructive waves), we discovered that dispersal was an important driver of synchrony. Our findings were robust to assumptions about propagule mortality during dispersal and consistent between two metrics of dispersal: (1) the individual probability of dispersal and (2) estimates of demographic connectivity that incorporate fecundity (the number of propagules dispersing). We also found that dispersal and environmental conditions resulted in geographic clusters with distinct patterns of synchrony. This study is among the few to statistically associate synchrony with dispersal in a natural population and the first to do so in a marine organism. The synchronizing effects of dispersal and environmental conditions on foundation species, such as giant kelp, likely have cascading effects on the spatial stability of biodiversity and ecosystem function.
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Annual and monthly time series of estimated kelp spore dispersal times among ROMS cells in southern California, 1996 – 2006
These data describe the estimated dispersal duration of spores of giant kelp, Macrocystis pyrifera, among connectivity cells in a high-resolution, three-dimensional, spatiotemporally-explicit ocean circulation model (Regional Oceanic Modeling System, ROMS) in southern California, USA, for an 11-year period from the beginning of 1996 to the end of 2006. Asymmetrical and dynamic estimates of giant kelp spore dispersal durations connecting source and destination ROMS cells were estimated on monthly and annual timescales using minimum mean transit times.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2023555
- PAR ID:
- 10434109
- Publisher / Repository:
- Environmental Data Initiative
- Date Published:
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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These data describe 1987-2019 time series of giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) biomass and associated environmental variables (wave height, nitrate concentration, climate indices) at quarterly and annual time intervals. Data for spatially resolvable variables (giant kelp biomass, wave height, nitrate concentration) pertain to 361 coastline segments (500 m length) in southern and central California where giant kelp was persistent over the sampling period. Data are contained in 5 tables: 1) quarterly time series of giant kelp biomass, wave height, and nitrate concentrations for 361 coastline segments; 2) quarterly time series of aspatial climate indices (NPGO, MEI, PDO); 3) annual time series of giant kelp biomass, wave height, and nitrate concentrations for 361 coastline segments; 4) annual time series of aspatial climate indices (NPGO, MEI, PDO); 5) locations (latitude and longitude of center) of coastline segments. Kelp data are derived from satellite imagery using empirical relationships. Wave data are derived from an empirically validated swell propagation model. Nitrate data are derived from empirical relationships with remotely-sensed sea surface temperature.more » « less
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