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This review article summarizes the current understanding and recent updates to tropical cyclone outer size and structure forecasting and research primarily since 2018 as part of the World Meteorological Organization's 10th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones. A more complete understanding of tropical cyclone outer wind and precipitation is key to anticipating storm intensification and the scale and magnitude of landfalling hazards. We first discuss the relevance of tropical cyclone outer size and structure, improvements in our understanding of its life cycle and inter-basin variability, and the processes that impact outer size changes. We next focus on current forecasting practices and differences among warning centers, recent advances in operational forecasting, and new observations of the storm outer wind field. We also summarize recent research on projected tropical cyclone outer size and structure changes by the late 21st century. Finally, we discuss recommendations for the future of tropical cyclone outer size forecasting and research.
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Likelihood of back-to-back tropical cyclone hazards is increasing
An integrated Earth system analysis is applied to project the probability of sequential hazards from tropical cyclones along the US East and Gulf coasts. Even a moderate-emissions scenario increases the chances of back-to-back tropical cyclone hazards and, possibly, two extreme tropical cyclone events impacting the United States within a short period of time.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2103754
- PAR ID:
- 10434295
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Nature Climate Change
- Volume:
- 13
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 1758-678X
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 220 to 221
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01596-6
