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Learning optimal individualized treatment rules (ITRs) has become increasingly important in the modern era of precision medicine. Many statistical and machine learning methods for learning optimal ITRs have been developed in the literature. However, most existing methods are based on data collected from traditional randomized controlled trials and thus cannot take advantage of the accumulative evidence when patients enter the trials sequentially. It is also ethically important that future patients should have a high probability to be treated optimally based on the updated knowledge so far. In this work, we propose a new design called sequentially rule-adaptive trials to learn optimal ITRs based on the contextual bandit framework, in contrast to the response-adaptive design in traditional adaptive trials. In our design, each entering patient will be allocated with a high probability to the current best treatment for this patient, which is estimated using the past data based on some machine learning algorithm (for example, outcome weighted learning in our implementation). We explore the tradeoff between training and test values of the estimated ITR in single-stage problems by proving theoretically that for a higher probability of following the estimated ITR, the training value converges to the optimal value at a faster rate, while the test value converges at a slower rate. This problem is different from traditional decision problems in the sense that the training data are generated sequentially and are dependent. We also develop a tool that combines martingale with empirical process to tackle the problem that cannot be solved by previous techniques for i.i.d. data. We show by numerical examples that without much loss of the test value, our proposed algorithm can improve the training value significantly as compared to existing methods. Finally, we use a real data study to illustrate the performance of the proposed method.
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Learning Optimal Group-structured Individualized Treatment Rules with Many Treatments
Data driven individualized decision making problems have received a lot of attentions in recent years. In particular, decision makers aim to determine the optimal Individualized Treatment Rule (ITR) so that the expected speci ed outcome averaging over heterogeneous patient-speci c characteristics is maximized. Many existing methods deal with binary or a moderate number of treatment arms and may not take potential treatment e ect structure into account. However, the e ectiveness of these methods may deteriorate when the number of treatment arms becomes large. In this article, we propose GRoup Outcome Weighted Learning (GROWL) to estimate the latent structure in the treatment space and the op- timal group-structured ITRs through a single optimization. In particular, for estimating group-structured ITRs, we utilize the Reinforced Angle based Multicategory Support Vec- tor Machines (RAMSVM) to learn group-based decision rules under the weighted angle based multi-class classi cation framework. Fisher consistency, the excess risk bound, and the convergence rate of the value function are established to provide a theoretical guaran- tee for GROWL. Extensive empirical results in simulation studies and real data analysis demonstrate that GROWL enjoys better performance than several other existing methods.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2100729
- PAR ID:
- 10436873
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of machine learning research
- Volume:
- 24
- Issue:
- 2023
- ISSN:
- 1533-7928
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1-48
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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