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We examine how individuals convicted of a felony or released from prison have fared in the labor market since the Great Recession. Using data from thirteen states in the Criminal Justice Administrative Records System (CJARS) linked with IRS W-2 information, we measure the employment and earnings of cohorts with focal criminal justice events before, during, and after the recession. These justice-involved cohorts experienced significant declines in employment and earnings during and immediately after the recession. Outcomes improved moderately during the long recovery but are still far below those of a reference group of people without high school degrees who were not involved in the justice system. We also correlate the employment outcomes of the justice involved to industry-specific local economic performance, finding that expansions in the construction and other services sectors are positively correlated with growing employment and especially earnings.
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Children’s Indirect Exposure to the U.S. Justice System: Evidence From Longitudinal Links between Survey and Administrative Data
Abstract Children’s indirect exposure to the justice system through biological parents or coresident adults is both a marker of their own vulnerability and a measure of the justice system’s expansive reach in society. Estimating the size of this population for the United States has historically been hampered by inadequate data resources, including the inability to observe nonincarceration events, follow children throughout their childhood, and measure adult nonbiological parent cohabitants. To overcome these challenges, we leverage billions of restricted administrative and survey records linked with Criminal Justice Administrative Records System data and find substantially larger exposure rates than previously reported: prison, 9% of children born between 1999–2005; felony conviction, 18%; and any criminal charge, 39%. Charge exposure rates exceed 60% for Black, American Indian, and low-income children. While broader definitions reach a more expansive population, strong and consistently negative correlations with childhood well-being suggest that these remain valuable predictors of vulnerability. Finally, we document substantial geographic variation in exposure, which we leverage in a movers design to estimate the effect of living in a high-exposure county during childhood. We find that children moving into high-exposure counties are more likely to experience postmove exposure events and exhibit significantly worse outcomes by age 26 on multiple dimensions (earnings, criminal activity, teen parenthood, mortality); effects are strongest for those who moved at earlier ages.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1925563
- PAR ID:
- 10437328
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- The Quarterly Journal of Economics
- ISSN:
- 0033-5533
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjad021
