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1. The Leading Intraseasonal Variability Mode of Wintertime Surface Air Temperature over the North American Sector

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0096.1  

   Guan, Weina ; Jiang, Xianan ; Ren, Xuejuan ; Chen, Gang ; Lin, Pu ; Lin, Hai ( November 2020 , Journal of Climate)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract In this study, detailed characteristics of the leading intraseasonal variability mode of boreal winter surface air temperature (SAT) over the North American (NA) sector are investigated. This intraseasonal SAT mode, characterized by two anomalous centers with an opposite sign—one over central NA and another over east Siberia (ES)/Alaska—bears a great resemblance to the “warm Arctic–cold continent” pattern of the interannual SAT variability over NA. This intraseasonal SAT mode and associated circulation exert a pronounced influence on regional weather extremes, including precipitation over the northwest coast of NA, sea ice concentration over the Chukchi and Bering Seas, and extreme warm and cold events over the NA continent and Arctic region. Surface warming and cooling signals of the intraseasonal SAT mode are connected to temperature anomalies in a deep-tropospheric layer up to 300 hPa with a decreasing amplitude with altitude. Particularly, a coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere is found during evolution of the intraseasonal SAT variability, although whether the stratospheric processes are essential in sustaining the leading intraseasonal SAT mode is difficult to determine based on observations alone. Two origins of wave sources are identified in contributing to vertically propagating planetary waves near Alaska: one over ES/Alaska associated with local intraseasonal variability and another from the subtropical North Pacific via Rossby wave trains induced by tropical convective activity over the western Pacific, possibly associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation. 

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2. Diverse Eurasian Temperature Responses to Arctic Sea Ice Loss in Models due to Varying Balance between Dynamic Cooling and Thermodynamic Warming

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0937.1  

   Zheng, Cheng ; Wu, Yutian ; Ting, Mingfang ; Screen, James A. ; Zhang, Pengfei ( December 2023 , Journal of Climate)

   Cold winters over Eurasia often coincide with warm winters in the Arctic, which has become known as the “warm Arctic–cold Eurasia” pattern. The extent to which this observed correlation is indicative of a causal response to sea ice loss is debated. Here, using large multimodel ensembles of coordinated experiments, we find that the Eurasian temperature response to Arctic sea ice loss is weak compared to internal variability and is not robust across climate models. We show that Eurasian cooling is driven by tropospheric and stratospheric circulation changes in response to sea ice loss but is counteracted by tropospheric thermodynamical warming, as the local warming induced by sea ice loss spreads into the midlatitudes by eddy advection. Although opposing effects of thermodynamical warming and dynamical cooling are found robustly across different models or different sea ice perturbations, their net effect varies in sign and magnitude across the models, resulting in diverse model temperature responses over Eurasia. The contributions from both tropospheric dynamics and thermodynamics show substantial intermodel spread. Although some of this spread in the Eurasian winter temperature response to sea ice loss may stem from model uncertainty, even with several hundred ensemble members, it is challenging to isolate model differences in the forced response from internal variability.

    

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3. The Role of Planetary-Scale Eddies on the Recent Isentropic Slope Trend during Boreal Winter

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-20-0348.1  

   Park, Mingyu ; Lee, Sukyoung ( September 2021 , Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences)

   According to baroclinic adjustment theory, the isentropic slope maintains its marginal state for baroclinic instability. However, the recent trend of Arctic warming raises the possibility that there could have been a systematic change in the extratropical isentropic slope. In this study, global reanalysis data are used to investigate this possibility. The result shows that tropospheric isentropes north of 50°N have been flattening significantly during winter for the recent 25 years. This trend pattern fluctuates at intraseasonal time scales. An examination of the temporal evolution indicates that it is the planetary-scale (zonal wavenumbers-1–3) eddy heat fluxes, not the synoptic-scale eddy heat fluxes, that flatten the isentropes; synoptic-scale eddy heat fluxes instead respond to the subsequent changes in isentropic slope. This extratropical planetary-scale wave growth is preceded by an enhanced zonal asymmetry of tropical heating and poleward wave activity vectors. A numerical model is used to test if the observed latent heating can generate the observed isentropic slope anomalies. The result shows that the tropical heating indeed contributes to the isentropic slope trend. The agreement between the model solution and the observation improves substantially if extratropical latent heating is also included in the forcing. The model temperature response shows a pattern resembling the warm-Arctic–cold-continent pattern. From these results, it is concluded that the recent flattening trend of isentropic slope north of 50°N is mostly caused by planetary-scale eddy activities generated from latent heating, and that this change is accompanied by a warm-Arctic–cold-continent pattern that permeates the entire troposphere.

    

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4. Reindeer turning maritime: Ice‐locked tundra triggers changes in dietary niche utilization

   https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2672  

   Hansen, Brage Bremset ; Lorentzen, Jon Runar ; Welker, Jeffrey M. ; Varpe, Øystein ; Aanes, Ronny ; Beumer, Larissa Teresa ; Pedersen, Åshild Ønvik ( April 2019 , Ecosphere)

   The rapid warming of the Arctic may not only alter species’ abundances and distributions, but likely also the trophic interactions within and between ecosystems. On the high‐arctic tundra, extreme warm spells and associated rain‐on‐snow events in winter can encapsulate the vegetation entirely in ground‐ice (i.e., basal ice) and directly or indirectly affect plants, herbivores, and carnivores. However, the implications of such extreme events for trophic interactions and food‐web ecology are generally far from understood. Here, we show that wild Svalbard reindeer populations increasingly isolated by lack of sea‐ice respond to rain‐on‐snow and ice‐locked pastures by increased kelp consumption. Based on annual population surveys in late winters 2006–2015, the proportion of individual reindeer feeding along the shoreline increased the icier the winter. Stable isotope values (δ³⁴S, δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N) of plants, washed‐ashore kelp, and fresh reindeer feces collected along coast‐inland gradients, confirmed ingestion of marine biomass by the reindeer in the shoreline habitat. Thus, even on remote islands and peninsulas increasingly isolated by sea‐ice loss, effects of climate change may be buffered in part by behavioral plasticity and increased use of resource subsidies. This marine dimension of a terrestrial herbivore's realized foraging niche adds to evidence that global warming significantly alters trophic interactions as well as meta‐ecosystem processes.

    

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5. Future of Winter in Northeastern North America: Climate Indicators Portray Warming and Snow Loss that will Impact Ecosystems and Communities

   Burakowski, Elizabeth ; Contosta, Alexandra ; Grogan, Danielle ; Nelson, Sarah ; Garlick, Sarah ; Casson, Nora ( January 2022 , Northeastern naturalist)

   Maier, Thomas (Ed.)

   Winters in northeastern North America have warmed faster than summers, with impacts on ecosystems and society. Global climate models (GCMs) indicate that winters will continue to warm and lose snow in the future, but uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of warming. Here, we project future trends in winter indicators under lower and higher climate-warming scenarios based on emission levels across northeastern North America at a fine spatial scale (1/16°) relevant to climate-related decision making. Under both climate scenarios, winters continue to warm with coincident increases in days above freezing, decreases in days with snow cover, and fewer nights below freezing. Deep snowpacks become increasingly short-lived, decreasing from a historical baseline of 2 months of subnivium habitat to <1 month under the warmer, higher-emissions climate scenario. Warmer winter temperatures allow invasive pests such as Adelges tsugae (Hemlock Woolly Adelgid) and Dendroctonus frontalis (Southern Pine Beetle) to expand their range northward due to reduced overwinter mortality. The higher elevations remain more resilient to winter warming compared to more southerly and coastal regions. Decreases in natural snowpack and warmer temperatures point toward a need for adaptation and mitigation in the multi-million-dollar winter-recreation and forest-management economies. 

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