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Abstract. Our work explores the impact of two important dimensions of landsystem changes, land use and land cover change (LULCC) as well as directagricultural reactive nitrogen (Nr) emissions from soils, on ozone(O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in terms of air quality overcontemporary (1992 to 2014) timescales. We account for LULCC andagricultural Nr emissions changes with consistent remote sensingproducts and new global emission inventories respectively estimating theirimpacts on global surface O3 and PM2.5 concentrations as well as Nrdeposition using the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model. Over thistime period, our model results show that agricultural Nr emissionchanges cause a reduction of annual mean PM2.5 levels over Europe andnorthern Asia (up to −2.1 µg m−3) while increasing PM2.5 levels in India, China and the eastern US (up to +3.5 µg m−3). Land cover changes induce small reductions in PM2.5 (up to −0.7 µg m−3) over Amazonia, China and India due to reduced biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions and enhanced deposition of aerosol precursor gases (e.g., NO2, SO2). Agricultural Nr emissionchanges only lead to minor changes (up to ±0.6 ppbv) in annual meansurface O3 levels, mainly over China, India and Myanmar. Meanwhile, ourmodel result suggests a stronger impact of LULCC on surface O3 over the time period across South America; the combination of changes in drydeposition and isoprene emissions results in −0.8 to +1.2 ppbv surfaceozone changes. The enhancement of dry deposition reduces the surface ozone level (up to −1 ppbv) over southern China, the eastern US and central Africa. The enhancement of soil NO emission due to crop expansion also contributes to surface ozone changes (up to +0.6 ppbv) over sub-Saharan Africa. Incertain regions, the combined effects of LULCC and agricultural Nr emission changes on O3 and PM2.5 air quality can be comparable (>20 %) to anthropogenic emission changes over the same time period. Finally, we calculate that the increase in global agricultural Nr emissions leads to a net increase in global land area (+3.67×106km2) that potentially faces exceedance of the critical Nr load (>5 kg N ha−1 yr−1). Our result demonstrates the impacts of contemporary LULCC and agricultural Nr emission changes on PM2.5 and O3 in terms of air quality, as well as the importanceof land system changes for air quality over multidecadal timescales.
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Long-term trends of impacts of global gasoline and diesel emissions on ambient PM2.5 and O3 pollution and the related health burden for 2000–2015
Abstract Global economic development and urbanization during the past two decades have driven the increases in demand of personal and commercial vehicle fleets, especially in developing countries, which has likely resulted in changes in year-to-year vehicle tailpipe emissions associated with aerosols and trace gases. However, long-term trends of impacts of global gasoline and diesel emissions on air quality and human health are not clear. In this study, we employ the Community Earth System Model in conjunction with the newly developed Community Emissions Data System as anthropogenic emission inventory to quantify the long-term trends of impacts of global gasoline and diesel emissions on ambient air quality and human health for the period of 2000–2015. Global gasoline and diesel emissions contributed to regional increases in annual mean surface PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters ⩽2.5 μm) concentrations by up to 17.5 and 13.7 µg m−3, and surface ozone (O3) concentrations by up to 7.1 and 7.2 ppbv, respectively, for 2000–2015. However, we also found substantial declines of surface PM2.5 and O3 concentrations over Europe, the US, Canada, and China for the same period, which suggested the co-benefits of air quality and human health from improving gasoline and diesel fuel quality and tightening vehicle emissions standards. Globally, we estimate the mean annual total PM2.5- and O3-induced premature deaths are 139 700–170 700 for gasoline and 205 200–309 300 for diesel, with the corresponding years of life lost of 2.74–3.47 and 4.56–6.52 million years, respectively. Diesel and gasoline emissions create health-effect disparities between the developed and developing countries, which are likely to aggravate afterwards.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2111428
- PAR ID:
- 10440150
- Publisher / Repository:
- IOP
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Environmental Research Letters
- Volume:
- 17
- Issue:
- 10
- ISSN:
- 1748-9326
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 104042
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac9422
