Bayesian updating with adaptive, uncertainty-informed subset simulations: High-fidelity updating with multiple observations
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Many service systems provide customers with information about the system so that customers can make an informed decision about whether to join or not. Many of these systems provide information in the form of an update. Thus, the information about the system is updated periodically in increments of size [Formula: see text]. It is known that these updates can cause oscillations in the resulting dynamics. However, it is an open problem to explicitly characterize the size of these oscillations when they occur. In this paper, we solve this open problem and show how to exactly calculate the amplitude of these oscillations via a fixed point equation. We also calculate closed form approximations via Taylor expansions of the fixed point equation and show that these approximations are very accurate, especially when [Formula: see text] is large. Our analysis provides new insight for systems that use updates as a way of disseminating information to customers.more » « less
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