The present study investigates dynamical coupling between the equatorial stratospheric Quasi31
biennial oscillation (QBO) and the boreal winter surface climate of the Northern Hemisphere mid
and high latitudes using 42 years data (1979–2020). For neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation
(ENSO) periods, QBO westerlies (W) at 70 hPa favor high sea level pressure in the polar region,
colder conditions and deeper snow over Eurasia and North America, and the opposite effects for
QBO easterlies (E). When QBO anomalies arrive in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere
(UTLS), it is observed that planetary wave activity is enhanced in the extratropical UTLS during
QBO W and diminished during QBO E. This QBO teleconnection pathway along the UTLS to the
high latitude surface is independent of the “stratospheric pathway” (Holton-Tan mechanism).
Diagnosis of this pathway can help to improve understanding of internal sub-seasonal to seasonal
variations, and long-range forecasting over Eurasia and North America.
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QBO and ENSO Effects on the Mean Meridional Circulation, Polar Vortex, Subtropical Westerly Jets, and Wave Patterns During Boreal Winter
The joint influence of the stratospheric quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the polar vortex, subtropical westerly jets (STJs), and wave patterns during boreal winter is investigated in 40 years (1979–2018) of monthly mean ERA‐Interim reanalyses. The method of Wallace et al. (1993),
- Award ID(s):
- 1947658
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10445206
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
- Volume:
- 127
- Issue:
- 15
- ISSN:
- 2169-897X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract The teleconnection between the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the boreal winter polar vortex, the Holton–Tan effect, is analyzed in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) with a focus on how stationary wave propagation varies by QBO phase. These signals are difficult to isolate in reanalyses because of large internal variability in short observational records, especially when decomposing the data by QBO phase. A 1,500‐year ensemble is leveraged by defining the QBO index at five different isobars between 10 and 70 hPa. The Holton–Tan effect is a robust part of the atmospheric response to the QBO in WACCM with warming of the polar stratosphere during easterly QBO (QBOE). A nudging technique is used to reduce polar stratospheric variability in one simulation. This enables isolation of the impact of the QBO on the atmosphere in the absence of a polar stratospheric response to the QBO: referred to as the “direct effect” and the polar stratospheric response, “indirect effect.” This simulation reveals that the polar stratospheric warming during QBOE pushes the tropospheric jet equatorward, opposing the poleward shift of the jet by the QBOE, especially over the North Pacific. The Holton–Tan effect varies over longitude. The QBO induces stronger planetary wave forcing to the mean flow in the extratropical lower stratosphere between Indonesia and Alaska. The North Pacific polar stratosphere responds to this before other longitudes. What follows is a shift in the position of the polar vortex toward Eurasia (North America) during easterly (westerly) QBO. This initiates downstream planetary wave responses over North America, the North Atlantic, and Siberia. This spatiotemporal evolution is found in transient simulations in which QBO nudging is “switched on.” The North Pacific lower stratosphere seems more intrinsically linked to the QBO while other longitudes appear more dependent on the mutual interaction between the QBO and polar stratosphere.
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Abstract The boreal‐winter stratospheric polar vortex is more disturbed when the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) in the lower stratosphere is in its easterly phase (eQBO), and more stable during the westerly phase (wQBO). This so‐called “Holton–Tan effect” (HTE) is known to involve Rossby waves (RWs) but the details remain obscure. This tropical–extratropical connection is re‐examined in an attempt to explain its intraseasonal variation and its relation to Rossby wave breaking (RWB). Reanalyses in isentropic coordinates from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System for the 1979–2017 period are used to evaluate the relevant features of RWB in the context of waveguide, wave–mean‐flow interaction, and the QBO‐induced meridional circulation. During eQBO, the net extratropical wave forcing is enhanced in early winter with ∼25% increase in upward propagating planetary‐scale Rossby waves (PRWs) of zonal wave‐number 1 (wave‐1). RWB is also enhanced in the lower stratosphere, characterized by convergent anomalies in the subtropics and at high latitudes and strengthened waveguide in between at 20°N–40°N, 350–650 K. In late winter, RWB leads to finite amplitude growth, which hinders upward propagating PRWs. The effect is most significant for zonal wave‐numbers 2 and 3 (wave‐2‐3). During wQBO, RWB in association with wave‐2‐3 is enhanced in the upper stratosphere. Wave absorption/mixing in the surf zone reinforces a stable polar vortex in early to middle winter. A poleward confinement of the extratropical waveguide in the upper stratosphere forces RWB to extend downward around January. A strengthening of upward propagating wave‐2‐3 follows and the polar‐vortex response switches from reinforcement to disturbance around February, thus a sign reversal of the HTE in late winter.
Key Findings • Rossby wave breaking (RWB) is enhanced in the height regions where the zero‐wind line is shifted into the winter hemisphere and where the QBO‐induced meridional circulation is directed toward the winter pole
• Polar vortex responses differ in terms of the height location of RWB, zonal wave‐number‐dependent disturbances and seasonal development
• Significant increase in wave‐1 occurs when the QBO is in its easterly phase
• A cumulative effect of RWB results in enhanced wave forcing of zonal wave‐numbers 2 and 3 during westerly QBO, which manifests in a sign reversal of the Holton–Tan effect in late winter.
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The Effect of QBO Phase on the Atmospheric Response to Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss in Early Wintermore » « less
Abstract Recent modeling studies have shown an important role for stratosphere‐troposphere coupling in the large‐scale atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss. Evidence is growing that the Quasi‐biennial Oscillation (QBO) can contribute to or even mitigate teleconnections from surface forcing. Here, the influence of QBO phase on the atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss is examined using an atmospheric general circulation model with a well‐resolved stratosphere and a QBO prescribed from observations. The role of the QBO is determined by compositing seasons with easterly phase (QBO‐E) separately from seasons with westerly phase (QBO‐W). In response to the sea ice forcing in early winter, the polar vortex during QBO‐E weakens with strong stratosphere‐troposphere wave‐1 coupling and a negative Northern Annular Mode‐type response. At the surface, this results in more severe Siberian cold spells. For QBO‐W, the polar vortex strengthens in response to the sea ice forcing.
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Abstract This work presents the first lidar observations of a Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in the interannual variations of stratospheric gravity wave potential energy density (
E pmin 30–50 km) at McMurdo (77.84°S, 166.67°E), Antarctica. This paper also reports the first identification of QBO signals in the distance between McMurdo and the polar vortex edge. Midwinter stratospheric gravity wave activity is stronger during the QBO easterly phase when the June polar vortex expands and the polar night jet shifts equatorward. During the QBO westerly phase, gravity wave activity is weaker when the polar vortex contracts and the polar night jet moves poleward. Nine years of lidar data (2011–2019) exhibit the meanE pmwinter maxima being ~43% higher during QBO easterly than westerly. The June polar vortex edge at 45 km altitude moves equatorward/poleward during QBO easterly/westerly phases with ~8° latitude differences (39.7°S vs. 47.7°S) as revealed in 21 years of MERRA‐2 data (1999–2019). We hypothesize that an equatorward shifted polar vortex corresponds to less critical level filtering of gravity waves and thus higherE pmat McMurdo. The critical level filtering is characterized by wind rotation angle (WRA), and we find a linear correlation between the WRA andE pminterannual variations. The results suggest that the QBO is likely controlling the interannual variations of theE pmwinter maxima over McMurdo via the critical level filtering. This observationally based study lays the groundwork for a rigorous numerical study that will provide robust statistics to better understand the mechanisms that link the tropical QBO to extratropical waves.
