skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.


Title: Seeing the forest for the trees: Assessing genetic offset predictions from gradient forest
Abstract Gradient Forest (GF) is a machine learning algorithm designed to analyze spatial patterns of biodiversity as a function of environmental gradients. An offset measure between the GF‐predicted environmental association of adapted alleles and a new environment (GF Offset) is increasingly being used to predict the loss of environmentally adapted alleles under rapid environmental change, but remains mostly untested for this purpose. Here, we explore the robustness of GF Offset to assumption violations, and its relationship to measures of fitness, using SLiM simulations with explicit genome architecture and a spatial metapopulation. We evaluate measures of GF Offset in: (1) a neutral model with no environmental adaptation; (2) a monogenic “population genetic” model with a single environmentally adapted locus; and (3) a polygenic “quantitative genetic” model with two adaptive traits, each adapting to a different environment. We found GF Offset to be broadly correlated with fitness offsets under both single locus and polygenic architectures. However, neutral demography, genomic architecture, and the nature of the adaptive environment can all confound relationships between GF Offset and fitness. GF Offset is a promising tool, but it is important to understand its limitations and underlying assumptions, especially when used in the context of predicting maladaptation.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2043905 1655701 1655344 1656099 1856450
PAR ID:
10445832
Author(s) / Creator(s):
 ;  ;  ;  ;  
Publisher / Repository:
Wiley-Blackwell
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Evolutionary Applications
Volume:
15
Issue:
3
ISSN:
1752-4571
Format(s):
Medium: X Size: p. 403-416
Size(s):
p. 403-416
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Across many species where inversions have been implicated in local adaptation, genomes often evolve to contain multiple, large inversions that arise early in divergence. Why this occurs has yet to be resolved. To address this gap, we built forward-time simulations in which inversions have flexible characteristics and can invade a metapopulation undergoing spatially divergent selection for a highly polygenic trait. In our simulations, inversions typically arose early in divergence, captured standing genetic variation upon mutation, and then accumulated many small-effect loci over time. Under special conditions, inversions could also arise late in adaptation and capture locally adapted alleles. Polygenic inversions behaved similarly to a single supergene of large effect and were detectable by genome scans. Our results show that characteristics of adaptive inversions found in empirical studies (e.g. multiple large, old inversions that are F ST outliers, sometimes overlapping with other inversions) are consistent with a highly polygenic architecture, and inversions do not need to contain any large-effect genes to play an important role in local adaptation. By combining a population and quantitative genetic framework, our results give a deeper understanding of the specific conditions needed for inversions to be involved in adaptation when the genetic architecture is polygenic. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Genomic architecture of supergenes: causes and evolutionary consequences’. 
    more » « less
  2. Fraser, Bonnie (Ed.)
    Abstract Selection on standing genetic variation may be effective enough to allow for adaptation to distinct niche environments within a single generation. Minor allele frequency changes at multiple, redundant loci of small effect can produce remarkable phenotypic shifts. Yet, demonstrating rapid adaptation via polygenic selection in the wild remains challenging. Here we harness natural replicate populations that experience similar selection pressures and harbor high within-, yet negligible among-population genetic variation. Such populations can be found among the teleost Fundulus heteroclitus that inhabits marine estuaries characterized by high environmental heterogeneity. We identify 10,861 single nucleotide polymorphisms in F. heteroclitus that belong to a single, panmictic population yet reside in environmentally distinct niches (one coastal basin and three replicate tidal ponds). By sampling at two time points within a single generation, we quantify both allele frequency change within as well as spatial divergence among niche subpopulations. We observe few individually significant allele frequency changes yet find that the “number” of moderate changes exceeds the neutral expectation by 10–100%. We find allele frequency changes to be significantly concordant in both direction and magnitude among all niche subpopulations, suggestive of parallel selection. In addition, within-generation allele frequency changes generate subtle but significant divergence among niches, indicative of local adaptation. Although we cannot distinguish between selection and genotype-dependent migration as drivers of within-generation allele frequency changes, the trait/s determining fitness and/or migration likelihood appear to be polygenic. In heterogeneous environments, polygenic selection and polygenic, genotype-dependent migration offer conceivable mechanisms for within-generation, local adaptation to distinct niches. 
    more » « less
  3. Abstract BackgroundRapid morphological change is emerging as a consequence of climate change in many systems. It is intuitive to hypothesize that temporal morphological trends are driven by the same selective pressures that have established well-known ecogeographic patterns over spatial environmental gradients (e.g., Bergman’s and Allen’s rules). However, mechanistic understanding of contemporary morphological shifts is lacking. ResultsWe combine morphological data and whole genome sequencing from a four-decade dataset in the migratory bird hermit thrush (Catharus guttatus) to test whether morphological shifts over time are accompanied by genetic change. Using genome-wide association, we identify alleles associated with body size, bill length, and wing length. Shifts in morphology and concordant shifts in morphology-associated alleles over time would support a genetic basis for the observed changes in morphology over recent decades, potentially an adaptive response to climate change. In our data, bill size decreases were paralleled by genetic shifts in bill size-associated alleles. On the other hand, alleles associated with body size showed no shift in frequency over time. ConclusionsTogether, our results show mixed support for evolutionary explanations of morphological response to climate change. Temporal shifts in alleles associated with bill size support the hypothesis that selection is driving temporal morphological trends. The lack of evidence for genetic shifts in body size alleles could be explained by a large role of plasticity or technical limitations associated with the likely polygenic architecture of body size, or both. Disentangling the mechanisms responsible for observed morphological response to changing environments will be vital for predicting future organismal and population responses to climate change. 
    more » « less
  4. Fluctuating environmental conditions are ubiquitous in natural systems, and populations have evolved various strategies to cope with such fluctuations. The particular mechanisms that evolve profoundly influence subsequent evolutionary dynamics. One such mechanism is phenotypic plasticity, which is the ability of a single genotype to produce alternate phenotypes in an environmentally dependent context. Here, we use digital organisms (self-replicating computer programs) to investigate how adaptive phenotypic plasticity alters evolutionary dynamics and influences evolutionary outcomes in cyclically changing environments. Specifically, we examined the evolutionary histories of both plastic populations and non-plastic populations to ask: (1) Does adaptive plasticity promote or constrain evolutionary change? (2) Are plastic populations better able to evolve and then maintain novel traits? And (3), how does adaptive plasticity affect the potential for maladaptive alleles to accumulate in evolving genomes? We find that populations with adaptive phenotypic plasticity undergo less evolutionary change than non-plastic populations, which must rely on genetic variation from de novo mutations to continuously readapt to environmental fluctuations. Indeed, the non-plastic populations undergo more frequent selective sweeps and accumulate many more genetic changes. We find that the repeated selective sweeps in non-plastic populations drive the loss of beneficial traits and accumulation of maladaptive alleles, whereas phenotypic plasticity can stabilize populations against environmental fluctuations. This stabilization allows plastic populations to more easily retain novel adaptive traits than their non-plastic counterparts. In general, the evolution of adaptive phenotypic plasticity shifted evolutionary dynamics to be more similar to that of populations evolving in a static environment than to non-plastic populations evolving in an identical fluctuating environment. All natural environments subject populations to some form of change; our findings suggest that the stabilizing effect of phenotypic plasticity plays an important role in subsequent adaptive evolution. 
    more » « less
  5. Abstract Rapid environmental change poses unprecedented challenges to species persistence. To understand the extent that continued change could have, genomic offset methods have been used to forecast maladaptation of natural populations to future environmental change. However, while their use has become increasingly common, little is known regarding their predictive performance across a wide array of realistic and challenging scenarios. Here, we evaluate the performance of currently available offset methods (gradientForest, the Risk‐Of‐Non‐Adaptedness, redundancy analysis with and without structure correction and LFMM2) using an extensive set of simulated data sets that vary demography, adaptive architecture and the number and spatial patterns of adaptive environments. For each data set, we train models using eitherall,adaptiveorneutralmarker sets and evaluate performance using in silico common gardens by correlating known fitness with projected offset. Using over 4,849,600 of such evaluations, we find that (1) method performance is largely due to the degree of local adaptation across the metapopulation (LA), (2)adaptivemarker sets provide minimal performance advantages, (3) performance within the species range is variable across gardens and declines when offset models are trained using additional non‐adaptive environments and (4) despite (1) performance declines more rapidly in globally novel climates (i.e. a climate without an analogue within the species range) for metapopulations with greaterLAthan lesserLA. We discuss the implications of these results for management, assisted gene flow and assisted migration. 
    more » « less