An official website of the United States government
Watershed sediment can increase elevation of tidal wetlands struggling against rising seas, but where and how much watershed sediment helps is unknown. By combining contiguous US datasets on sediment loads and tidal wetland areas for 4972 rivers and their estuaries, we calculated that river sediment accretion will be insufficient to match sea level rise in 72% of cases because most watersheds are too small (median 21 square kilometers) to generate adequate sediment. Nearly half the tidal wetlands would require 10 times more river sediment to match sea level, a magnitude not generally achievable by dam removal in some regions. The realization that watershed sediment has little effect on most tidal wetland elevations shifts research priorities toward biological processes and coastal sediment dynamics that most influence elevation change.
more »
« less
Localized Scenarios and Latitudinal Patterns of Vertical and Lateral Resilience of Tidal Marshes to Sea‐Level Rise in the Contiguous United States
Abstract Coastal wetlands have two dimensions of vulnerability to sea‐level rise (SLR), a vertical one, in cases where SLR outpaces their capacity to vertically accrete, and a lateral one, in cases where they are restricted from migrating inland by topography and land use. We conducted a meta‐analysis of accretion rates, standardized our analysis by using only137Cs based estimates, and used model intercomparison to generate a vertical resilience index, a function of local SLR, tidal range, and tidal elevation category for the tidal wetlands of the contiguous US. We paired the vertical resilience index with a lateral resilience index made up of elevation, water level, and land cover maps, then projected them both into the future using localized SLR scenarios. At the regional scale, the vertical resilience index predicts changes from marsh aggradation to submergence for the coastal US Mid‐Atlantic, Southeast, and portions of the Northeast by 2100. At the sub‐regional scale, there is a geographic tradeoff between vertical and lateral resilience with more northerly wetlands vulnerable to the lack of suitable proportional area to migrate into, and more southerly wetlands vulnerable to accretion deficit. We estimate between 43% and 48% of the existing contiguous US wetland area, almost entirely located in watersheds along the Gulf of Mexico and Mid‐Atlantic coasts, is subject to both vertical and lateral limitations. These vertical and lateral resilience indices could help direct future research, planning, and mitigation efforts at a national scale, as well as supplement more processed informed approaches by local planners and practitioners.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 1655622
- PAR ID:
- 10445887
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Earth's Future
- Volume:
- 9
- Issue:
- 6
- ISSN:
- 2328-4277
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
null (Ed.)Abstract Shorelines and their ecosystems are endangered by sea-level rise. Nature-based coastal protection is becoming a global strategy to enhance coastal resilience through the cost-effective creation, restoration and sustainable use of coastal wetlands. However, the resilience to sea-level rise of coastal wetlands created under Nature-based Solution has been assessed largely on a regional scale. Here we assess, using a meta-analysis, the difference in accretion, elevation, and sediment deposition rates between natural and restored coastal wetlands across the world. Our results show that restored coastal wetlands can trap more sediment and that the effectiveness of these restoration projects is primarily driven by sediment availability, not by wetland elevation, tidal range, local rates of sea-level rise, and significant wave height. Our results suggest that Nature-based Solutions can mitigate coastal wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise, but are effective only in coastal locations where abundant sediment supply is available.more » « less
-
Abstract The long‐term stability of coastal wetlands is determined by interactions among sea level, plant primary production, sediment supply, and wetland vertical accretion. Human activities in watersheds have significantly altered sediment delivery from the landscape to the coastal ocean, with declines along much of the U.S. East Coast. Tidal wetlands in coastal systems with low sediment supply may have limited ability to keep pace with accelerating rates of sea‐level rise (SLR). Here, we show that rates of vertical accretion and carbon accumulation in nine tidal wetland systems along the U.S. East Coast from Maine to Georgia can be explained by differences in the rate of relative SLR (RSLR), the concentration of suspended sediments in the rivers draining to the coast, and temperature in the coastal region. Further, we show that rates of vertical accretion have accelerated over the past century by between 0.010 and 0.083 mm yr−2, at roughly the same pace as the acceleration of global SLR. We estimate that rates of carbon sequestration in these wetland soils have accelerated (more than doubling at several sites) along with accelerating accretion. Wetland accretion and carbon accumulation have accelerated more rapidly in coastal systems with greater relative RSLR, higher watershed sediment availability, and lower temperatures. These findings suggest that the biogeomorphic feedback processes that control accretion and carbon accumulation in these tidal wetlands have responded to accelerating RSLR, and that changes to RSLR, watershed sediment supply, and temperature interact to determine wetland vulnerability across broad geographic scales.more » « less
-
Abstract The vulnerability of coastal environments to sea-level rise varies spatially, particularly due to local land subsidence. However, high-resolution observations and models of coastal subsidence are scarce, hindering an accurate vulnerability assessment. We use satellite data from 2007 to 2020 to create high-resolution map of subsidence rate at mm-level accuracy for different land covers along the ~3,500 km long US Atlantic coast. Here, we show that subsidence rate exceeding 3 mm per year affects most coastal areas, including wetlands, forests, agricultural areas, and developed regions. Coastal marshes represent the dominant land cover type along the US Atlantic coast and are particularly vulnerable to subsidence. We estimate that 58 to 100% of coastal marshes are losing elevation relative to sea level and show that previous studies substantially underestimate marsh vulnerability by not fully accounting for subsidence.more » « less
-
Abstract Ghost forests consisting of dead trees adjacent to marshes are striking indicators of climate change, and marsh migration into retreating coastal forests is a primary mechanism for marsh survival in the face of global sea‐level rise. Models of coastal transgression typically assume inundation of a static topography and instantaneous conversion of forest to marsh with rising seas. In contrast, here we use four decades of satellite observations to show that many low‐elevation forests along the US mid‐Atlantic coast have survived despite undergoing relative sea‐level rise rates (RSLRR) that are among the fastest on Earth. Lateral forest retreat rates were strongly mediated by topography and seawater salinity, but not directly explained by spatial variability in RSLRR, climate, or disturbance. The elevation of coastal tree lines shifted upslope at rates correlated with, but far less than, contemporary RSLRR. Together, these findings suggest a multi‐decadal lag between RSLRR and land conversion that implies coastal ecosystem resistance. Predictions based on instantaneous conversion of uplands to wetlands may therefore overestimate future land conversion in ways that challenge the timing of greenhouse gas fluxes and marsh creation, but also imply that the full effects of historical sea‐level rise have yet to be realized.more » « less
