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Abstract Coastal wetlands have two dimensions of vulnerability to sea‐level rise (SLR), a vertical one, in cases where SLR outpaces their capacity to vertically accrete, and a lateral one, in cases where they are restricted from migrating inland by topography and land use. We conducted a meta‐analysis of accretion rates, standardized our analysis by using only137Cs based estimates, and used model intercomparison to generate a vertical resilience index, a function of local SLR, tidal range, and tidal elevation category for the tidal wetlands of the contiguous US. We paired the vertical resilience index with a lateral resilience index made up of elevation, water level, and land cover maps, then projected them both into the future using localized SLR scenarios. At the regional scale, the vertical resilience index predicts changes from marsh aggradation to submergence for the coastal US Mid‐Atlantic, Southeast, and portions of the Northeast by 2100. At the sub‐regional scale, there is a geographic tradeoff between vertical and lateral resilience with more northerly wetlands vulnerable to the lack of suitable proportional area to migrate into, and more southerly wetlands vulnerable to accretion deficit. We estimate between 43% and 48% of the existing contiguous US wetland area, almost entirely located in watersheds along the Gulf of Mexico and Mid‐Atlantic coasts, is subject to both vertical and lateral limitations. These vertical and lateral resilience indices could help direct future research, planning, and mitigation efforts at a national scale, as well as supplement more processed informed approaches by local planners and practitioners.
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Recent Acceleration of Wetland Accretion and Carbon Accumulation Along the U.S. East Coast
Abstract The long‐term stability of coastal wetlands is determined by interactions among sea level, plant primary production, sediment supply, and wetland vertical accretion. Human activities in watersheds have significantly altered sediment delivery from the landscape to the coastal ocean, with declines along much of the U.S. East Coast. Tidal wetlands in coastal systems with low sediment supply may have limited ability to keep pace with accelerating rates of sea‐level rise (SLR). Here, we show that rates of vertical accretion and carbon accumulation in nine tidal wetland systems along the U.S. East Coast from Maine to Georgia can be explained by differences in the rate of relative SLR (RSLR), the concentration of suspended sediments in the rivers draining to the coast, and temperature in the coastal region. Further, we show that rates of vertical accretion have accelerated over the past century by between 0.010 and 0.083 mm yr−2, at roughly the same pace as the acceleration of global SLR. We estimate that rates of carbon sequestration in these wetland soils have accelerated (more than doubling at several sites) along with accelerating accretion. Wetland accretion and carbon accumulation have accelerated more rapidly in coastal systems with greater relative RSLR, higher watershed sediment availability, and lower temperatures. These findings suggest that the biogeomorphic feedback processes that control accretion and carbon accumulation in these tidal wetlands have responded to accelerating RSLR, and that changes to RSLR, watershed sediment supply, and temperature interact to determine wetland vulnerability across broad geographic scales.
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- PAR ID:
- 10419826
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Earth's Future
- Volume:
- 11
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 2328-4277
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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