skip to main content


Title: Late Quaternary Abrupt Climate Change in the Tropics and Sub‐Tropics: The Continental Signal of Tropical Hydroclimatic Events (THEs)
Abstract

Tropical hydroclimatic events, characterized by extreme regional rainfall anomalies, were a recurrent feature of marine isotope stages 2–4 and involved some of the most abrupt and dramatic climatic changes in the late Quaternary. These anomalies were pervasive throughout the tropics and resulted from the southward displacement of the Hadley circulation and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and its associated convective rainfall, modulated by regional factors. Lake sediments, stalagmites, and offshore marine sediments that integrate inland continental conditions provide a comprehensive record of these changes over the past ∼70,000 yr. Vast areas experienced severe drought while other areas recorded greatly increased rainfall. Within the uncertainties of dating, these tropical rainfall anomalies occurred very close in time (±102–103 yr) to the deposition of North Atlantic ice‐rafted debris (IRD) that defines Heinrich events (HEs). The IRD record is a good proxy for the amount and distribution of additional freshwater forcing which was necessary to bring about a drastic reduction in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength during each HE. As a consequence of this reduction in AMOC and an abrupt expansion in the area of sea‐ice, cooling of the North Atlantic and adjacent continents took place, with a rapid atmospheric response involving the southward displacement of the ITCZ and associated rainfall belts. The climatic consequences of this large‐scale change in the Hadley circulation, modulated by regional factors, is clearly recorded throughout the tropics as a series of abrupt and extreme hydroclimatic events. Some of the physical mechanisms that may have played a role in those changes are discussed.

 
more » « less
NSF-PAR ID:
10446131
Author(s) / Creator(s):
 ;  
Publisher / Repository:
DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Reviews of Geophysics
Volume:
59
Issue:
4
ISSN:
8755-1209
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Abstract

    Perspectives on past climate using lake sediments are critical for assessing modern and future climate change. These perspectives are especially important for water-stressed regions such as the western United States. One such region is northwestern California (CA), where Holocene-length hydroclimatic records are scarce. Here, we present a 9000-year, relative lake level record from Maddox Lake (CA) using a multi-indicator approach. The Early Holocene is characterized by variably low lake levels with a brief excursion to wetter climates/relative highstand ca. 8.4–8.06 cal ka BP, possibly related to the 8.2 ka cold event and changing Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). From 5.2–0.55 cal ka BP, Maddox Lake experienced a long-term regression, tracking changes in summer-winter insolation, tropical and northeast Pacific SSTs, and the southward migration of the ITCZ. This gradual regression culminated in a pronounced relative lowstand during the Medieval Climatic Anomaly (MCA). A marked relative highstand followed the MCA, correlative to the Little Ice Age. The latter reflects a far-field response to North Atlantic volcanism, solar variability, and possibly changes in AMOC and Arctic sea ice extent. Our results further confirm the hydroclimatic sensitivity of northwest California to various forcings including those emanating from the North Atlantic.

     
    more » « less
  2. Abstract

    The low latitude Indian Ocean is warming faster than other tropical basins, and its interannual climate variability is projected to become more extreme under future emissions scenarios with substantial impacts on developing Indian Ocean rim countries. Therefore, it has become increasingly important to understand the drivers of regional precipitation in a changing climate. Here we present a new speleothem record from Anjohibe, a cave in northwest (NW) Madagascar well situated to record past changes in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). U‐Th ages date speleothem growth from 27 to 14 ka. δ18O, δ13C, and trace metal proxies reconstruct drier conditions during Heinrich Stadials 1 and 2, and wetter conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum and Bølling–Allerød. This is surprising considering hypotheses arguing for southward (northward) ITCZ shifts during North Atlantic cooling (warming) events, which would be expected to result in wetter (drier) conditions at Anjohibe in the Southern Hemisphere tropics. The reconstructed Indian Ocean zonal (west‐east) sea surface temperature (SST) gradient is in close agreement with hydroclimate proxies in NW Madagascar, with periods of increased precipitation correlating with relatively warmer conditions in the western Indian Ocean and cooler conditions in the eastern Indian Ocean. Such gradients could drive long‐term shifts in the strength of the Walker circulation with widespread effects on hydroclimate across East Africa. These results suggest that during abrupt millennial‐scale climate changes, it is not meridional ITCZ shifts, but the tropical Indian Ocean SST gradient and Walker circulation driving East African hydroclimate variability.

     
    more » « less
  3. Abstract

    This Scientific Briefing presents results from a nearly 10‐year hydrometric and isotope monitoring network across north‐central Costa Rica, a region known as a headwater‐dependent system. This monitoring system has recorded different El Niño and La Niña events and the direct/indirect effects of several hurricane and tropical storm passages. Our results show that El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts a significant but predictable impact on rainfall amount anomalies, groundwater level and spring discharge, as evidenced by second‐order water isotope parameters (e.g., line conditioned‐excess or line‐conditioned (LC)‐excess). Sea surface temperature anomaly (El Niño Region 3) is correlated with a reduction in mean annual and cold front rainfall across the headwaters of north‐central Costa Rica. During El Niño conditions, rainfall is substantially reduced (up to 69.2%) during the critical cold fronts period, limiting groundwater recharge and promoting an early onset of minimum baseflow conditions (up to 5 months). In contrast, La Niña is associated with increased rainfall and groundwater recharge (up to 94.7% during active cold front periods). During La Niña, the long‐term mean spring discharge (39 Ls−1) is exceeded 63–80% of the time, whereas, during El Niño, the exceedance time ranges between 26% and 44%. The regional hydroclimatic variability is also imprinted on the hydrogen and oxygen isotopic compositions of meteoric waters. Drier conditions favoured lower LC‐excess in rainfall (−17.3‰) and spring water (−6.5‰), whereas wetter conditions resulted in greater values (rainfall = +17.5‰; spring water = +10.7‰). The lower and higher LC‐excess values in rainfall corresponded to the very strong 2014–2016 El Niño and 2018 La Niña, respectively. During the recent triple‐dip 2021–23 La Niña, LC‐excess exhibited a significant and consistently increasing trend. These findings highlight the importance of combining hydrometric, synoptic and isotopic monitoring as ENSO sentinels to advance our current understanding of ENSO impacts on hydrological systems across the humid Tropics. Such information is critical to constraining the 21st century projections of future water stress across this fragile region.

     
    more » « less
  4. Uncertainty about the influence of anthropogenic radiative forcing on the position and strength of convective rainfall in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) inhibits our ability to project future tropical hydroclimate change in a warmer world. Paleoclimatic and modeling data inform on the timescales and mechanisms of ITCZ variability; yet a comprehensive, long-term perspective remains elusive. Here, we quantify the evolution of neotropical hydroclimate over the preindustrial past millennium (850 to 1850 CE) using a synthesis of 48 paleo-records, accounting for uncertainties in paleo-archive age models. We show that an interhemispheric pattern of precipitation antiphasing occurred on multicentury timescales in response to changes in natural radiative forcing. The conventionally defined “Little Ice Age” (1450 to 1850 CE) was marked by a clear shift toward wetter conditions in the southern neotropics and a less distinct and spatiotemporally complex transition toward drier conditions in the northern neotropics. This pattern of hydroclimatic change is consistent with results from climate model simulations indicating that a relative cooling of the Northern Hemisphere caused a southward shift in the thermal equator across the Atlantic basin and a southerly displacement of the ITCZ in the tropical Americas, with volcanic forcing as the principal driver. These findings are at odds with proxy-based reconstructions of ITCZ behavior in the western Pacific basin, where changes in ITCZ width and intensity, rather than mean position, appear to have driven hydroclimate transitions over the last millennium. This reinforces the idea that ITCZ responses to external forcing are region specific, complicating projections of the tropical precipitation response to global warming. 
    more » « less
  5. Abstract

    The TRACMIP (Tropical Rain Belts with an Annual Cycle and Continent Model Intercomparison Project) ensemble includes slab-ocean aquaplanet control simulations and experiments with a highly idealized narrow tropical continent (0°–45°W, 30°S–30°N). We compare the two setups to contrast the characteristics of oceanic and continental rainbands and investigate monsoon development in GCMs with CMIP5-class dynamics and physics. Over land, the rainy season occurs close to the time of maximum insolation. Other than in its timing, the continental rainband remains in an ITCZ-like regime akin to deep-tropical monsoons, with a smooth latitudinal transition, a poleward reach only slightly farther than that of the oceanic ITCZ (about 10°), and a constant width throughout the year. This confinement of the monsoon to the deep tropics is the result of a tight coupling between regional rainfall and circulation anomalies: ventilation of the lower troposphere by the anomalous meridional circulation is the main limiting mechanism, while ventilation by the mean westerly jet aloft is secondary. Comparison of two subsets of TRACMIP simulations indicates that a low heat capacity determines, to a first degree, both the timing and the strength of the regional solsticial circulation; this lends support to the choice of idealizing land as a thin slab ocean in much theoretical literature on monsoon dynamics. Yet, the timing and strength of the monsoon are modulated by the treatment of evaporation over land, especially when moisture and radiation can interact. This points to the need for a fuller exploration of land characteristics in the hierarchical modeling of the tropical rainbands.

     
    more » « less