skip to main content


Title: Zonal Indian Ocean Variability Drives Millennial‐Scale Precipitation Changes in Northern Madagascar
Abstract

The low latitude Indian Ocean is warming faster than other tropical basins, and its interannual climate variability is projected to become more extreme under future emissions scenarios with substantial impacts on developing Indian Ocean rim countries. Therefore, it has become increasingly important to understand the drivers of regional precipitation in a changing climate. Here we present a new speleothem record from Anjohibe, a cave in northwest (NW) Madagascar well situated to record past changes in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). U‐Th ages date speleothem growth from 27 to 14 ka. δ18O, δ13C, and trace metal proxies reconstruct drier conditions during Heinrich Stadials 1 and 2, and wetter conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum and Bølling–Allerød. This is surprising considering hypotheses arguing for southward (northward) ITCZ shifts during North Atlantic cooling (warming) events, which would be expected to result in wetter (drier) conditions at Anjohibe in the Southern Hemisphere tropics. The reconstructed Indian Ocean zonal (west‐east) sea surface temperature (SST) gradient is in close agreement with hydroclimate proxies in NW Madagascar, with periods of increased precipitation correlating with relatively warmer conditions in the western Indian Ocean and cooler conditions in the eastern Indian Ocean. Such gradients could drive long‐term shifts in the strength of the Walker circulation with widespread effects on hydroclimate across East Africa. These results suggest that during abrupt millennial‐scale climate changes, it is not meridional ITCZ shifts, but the tropical Indian Ocean SST gradient and Walker circulation driving East African hydroclimate variability.

 
more » « less
NSF-PAR ID:
10477775
Author(s) / Creator(s):
 ;  ;  ;  ;  ;  ;  ;  
Publisher / Repository:
DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology
Volume:
38
Issue:
11
ISSN:
2572-4517
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Abstract

    Terrestrial‐marine dust fluxes, pedogenic carbonate δ13C values, and various paleovegetation proxies suggest that Africa experienced gradual cooling and drying across the Pliocene‐Pleistocene (Plio‐Pleistocene) boundary (2.58 million years ago [Ma]). However, the timing, magnitude, resolution, and relative influences of orbitally‐driven changes in high latitude glaciations and low latitude insolation differ by region and proxy. To disentangle these forcings and investigate equatorial eastern African climate across the Plio‐Pleistocene boundary, we generated a high‐resolution (∼3,000‐year) data set of compound‐specificn‐alkane leaf wax δ2H values—a robust proxy for atmospheric circulation and precipitation amount—from the HSPDP‐BTB13‐1A core, which spans a ∼3.3–2.6 Ma sequence in the Baringo‐Tugen Hills‐Barsemoi Basin of central Kenya. In combination with the physical sedimentology, our data indicate that precipitation varied strongly with orbital obliquity, not precession, during the late Pliocene, perhaps imparted by variations in the cross‐equatorial insolation gradient. We also observe a marked shift toward wetter conditions beginning ∼3 Ma that corresponds with global cooling, drying in western Australia, and a steepening of the west‐east zonal Indian Ocean (IO) sea surface temperature (SST) gradient. We propose that northward migration of the Subtropical Front reduced Agulhas current leakage, warming the western IO and causing changes in the IO zonal SST gradient at 3 Ma, a process that has been observed in the latest Pleistocene‐Holocene but not over longer timescales. Thus, the late Cenozoic moisture history of eastern Africa is driven by a complex mixture of low‐latitude insolation, the IO SST gradient, and teleconnections to distal high‐latitude cooling.

     
    more » « less
  2. Iberia is predicted under future warming scenarios to be increasingly impacted by drought. While it is known that this region has experienced multiple intervals of enhanced aridity over the Holocene, additional hydroclimate-sensitive records from Iberia are necessary to place current and future drying into a broader perspective. Toward that end, we present a multi-proxy composite record from six well-dated and overlapping speleothems from Buraca Gloriosa (BG) cave, located in western Portugal. The coherence between the six stalagmites in this composite stalagmite record illustrates that climate (not in-cave processes) impacts speleothem isotopic values. This record provides the first high-resolution, precisely dated, terrestrial record of Holocene hydroclimate from west-central Iberia. The BG record reveals that aridity in western Portugal increased secularly from 9.0 ka BP to present, as evidenced by rising values of both carbon (δ 13 C) and oxygen (δ 18 O) stable isotope values. This trend tracks the decrease in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation and parallels Iberian margin sea surface temperatures (SST). The increased aridity over the Holocene is consistent with changes in Hadley Circulation and a southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Centennial-scale shifts in hydroclimate are coincident with changes in total solar irradiance (TSI) after 4 ka BP. Several major drying events are evident, the most prominent of which was centered around 4.2 ka BP, a feature also noted in other Iberian climate records and coinciding with well-documented regional cultural shifts. Substantially, wetter conditions occurred from 0.8 ka BP to 0.15 ka BP, including much of the ‘Little Ice Age’. This was followed by increasing aridity toward present day. This composite stalagmite proxy record complements oceanic records from coastal Iberia, lacustrine records from inland Iberia, and speleothem records from both northern and southern Spain and depicts the spatial and temporal variability in hydroclimate in Iberia. 
    more » « less
  3. Abstract

    Understanding the hydroclimate representations of precipitationδ18O (δ18Op) in tropical South America (TSA) is crucial for climate reconstruction from available speleothem caves. Our preceding study (Part I) highlights a heterogeneous response in millennial hydroclimate over the TSA during the last deglaciation (20–11 ka before present), characterized by a northwest–southeast (NW–SE) dipole in both rainfall andδ18Op, with opposite signs between central-western Amazon and eastern Brazil. Mechanisms of suchδ18Opdipole response are further investigated in this study with the aid of moisture tagging simulations. In response to increased meltwater discharge, the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) migrates southward, causing a moisture source location shift and depleting the isotopic value of the vapor transported into eastern Brazil, which almost entirely contributes to theδ18Opdepletion in eastern Brazil (SE pole). In contrast, the moisture source location change and local condensation change (due to the lowering convergence level and increased rain reevaporation in unsaturated subcloud layers) contribute nearly equally to theδ18Openrichment in the central-western Amazon (NW pole). Therefore, although a clear inverse relationship betweenδ18Opand rainfall in both dipole regions seems to support the “amount effect,” we argue that the local rainfall amount only partially interprets the millennialδ18Opchange in the central-western Amazon, whileδ18Opdoes not document local rainfall change in eastern Brazil. Thus, the paleoclimate community should be cautious when usingδ18Opas a proxy for past local precipitation in the TSA region. Finally, we discuss the discrepancy between the model and speleothem proxies on capturing the millennialδ18Opdipole response and pose a challenge in reconciling the discrepancy.

    Significance Statement

    We want to comprehensively understand the hydroclimate footprints ofδ18Opand the mechanisms of the millennial variability ofδ18Opover tropical South America with the help of water tagging experiments performed by the isotope-enabled Community Earth System Model (iCESM). We argue that the millennialδ18Opchange in eastern Brazil mainly documents the moisture source location change associated with ITCZ migration and the change of the isotopic value of the incoming water vapor, instead of the local rainfall amount. In contrast, the central-western Amazon partially documents the moisture source location shift and local precipitation change. Our study cautions that one should not simply resort to the isotopic “amount effect” to reconstruct past precipitation in tropical regions without studying the mechanisms behind it.

     
    more » « less
  4. Abstract

    Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures impact precipitation across the basin through coupled ocean‐atmosphere responses to changes in climate. To understand the hydroclimate response over the western Indian Ocean and equatorial east Africa to different forcing mechanisms, we present four new proxy reconstructions from core VM19‐193 (2.98°N, 51.47°E) that span the last 250 ky. Sub‐surface water temperatures (Sub‐T; TEX86) show strong precessional (23 ky) variability that is primarily influenced by maximum incoming solar radiation (insolation) during the Northern Hemisphere spring season, likely indicating that local insolation dominates the upper water column at this tropical location over time. Leaf waxes, on the other hand, reflect two different precipitation signals:δ13Cwax(in phase with boreal fall insolation) is likely reflecting vegetation changes in response to local rainfall over east Africa, whereasδDprecip(primarily driven by boreal summer insolation) represents changes in regional circulation associated with the summer monsoon. Glacial‐interglacial changes in ocean temperatures support glacial shelf exposure over the Maritime Continent in the eastern Indian Ocean and the subsequent weakening of the Indian Walker Circulation as a mechanism driving 100 ky climate variability across the tropical Indo‐Pacific. Additionally, the 100 ky spectral power inδDprecipsupports a basin‐wide weakening of summer monsoon circulation in response to glacial climates. Overall, the proxy records from VM19‐193 indicate that both precession and glacial‐interglacial cycles exert control over hydroclimate at this tropical location.

     
    more » « less
  5. Abstract

    Oxygen isotope speleothems have been widely used to infer past climate changes over tropical South America (TSA). However, the spatial patterns of the millennial precipitation and precipitationδ18O (δ18Op) response have remained controversial, and their response mechanisms are unclear. In particular, it is not clear whether the regional precipitation represents the intensity of the millennial South American summer monsoon (SASM). Here, we study the TSA hydroclimate variability during the last deglaciation (20–11 ka ago) by combining transient simulations of an isotope-enabled Community Earth System Model (iCESM) and the speleothem records over the lowland TSA. Our model reasonably simulates the deglacial evolution of hydroclimate variables and water isotopes over the TSA, albeit underestimating the amplitude of variability. North Atlantic meltwater discharge is the leading factor driving the TSA’s millennial hydroclimate variability. The spatial pattern of both precipitation andδ18Opshow a northwest–southeast dipole associated with the meridional migration of the intertropical convergence zone, instead of a continental-wide coherent change as inferred in many previous works on speleothem records. The dipole response is supported by multisource paleoclimate proxies. In response to increased meltwater forcing, the SASM weakened (characterized by a decreased low-level easterly wind) and consequently reduced rainfall in the western Amazon and increased rainfall in eastern Brazil. A similar dipole response is also generated by insolation, ice sheets, and greenhouse gases, suggesting an inherent stability of the spatial characteristics of the SASM regardless of the external forcing and time scales. Finally, we discuss the potential reasons for the model–proxy discrepancy and pose the necessity to build more paleoclimate proxy data in central-western Amazon.

    Significance Statement

    We want to reconcile the controversy on whether there is a coherent or heterogeneous response in millennial hydroclimate over tropical South America and to clearly understand the forcing mechanisms behind it. Our isotope-enabled transient simulations fill the gap in speleothem reconstructions to capture a complete picture of millennial precipitation/δ18Opand monsoon intensity change. We highlight a heterogeneous dipole response in precipitation andδ18Opon millennial and orbital time scales. Increased meltwater discharge shifts ITCZ southward and favors a wet condition in coastal Brazil. Meanwhile, the low-level easterly and the summer monsoon intensity reduced, causing a dry condition in the central-western Amazon. However, the millennial variability of hydroclimate response is underestimated in our model, together with the lack of direct paleoclimate proxies in the central-west Amazon, complicating the interpretation of changes in specific paleoclimate events and posing a challenge to constraining the spatial range of the dipole. Therefore, we emphasize the necessity to increase the source of proxies, enhance proxy interpretations, and improve climate model performance in the future.

     
    more » « less