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Abstract Climate-change-imposed challenges in the form of heightened frequency and intensity of weather events exert additional pressure on securing the imperative continuous and reliable power supply, leading to increased power outages. This research proposes a comprehensive framework for enhancing the resilience of electric power networks (EPNs) through reliability-based risk assessment, promoting predictions and proactive decisions. The presented research discusses weather phenomena, their association with climate change, and their projected impacts. The numerical weather prediction model, WRF 3.4.1, with a 4 km resolution cell grid, gives a more accurate projection of high winds’ frequency and intensity. The simulation period from 2086 to 2099 is based on a reference control period spanning from 2000 to 2013, with adjustments made to background conditions using climate model output consistent with projections for the late century, a pseudo-global warming (PGW) technique. The presented research focuses on the wooden power distribution poles. The reliability assessment approach employs fragility development and analysis against wind scenarios through advanced modeling techniques and statistical analysis used to mimic historical and projected wind scenarios and to allow numerous factors on both the demand and capacity sides and their inherent uncertainties to be considered. The annual probability of failure is obtained by performing a mathematical convolution of the fragility and the hazard curves, showing the reflection of the effects of climate change on the annual probability of failure. Scaling these results to a system-level resilience assessment will facilitate the flexible energy design strategies integration and allow smoother net-zero standards incorporation and adaptation to the changing environmental conditions. This understanding will allow the decision-makers to evaluate the critical locations within a distribution line and plan to address the vulnerabilities by hardening the assets or implementing modern microgrid techniques or distributed energy resource integration.
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Analysis of leading edge protection application on wind turbine performance through energy and power decomposition approaches
Abstract Wind power production is driven by, and varies with, the stochastic yet uncontrollable wind and environmental inputs. To compare a wind turbine's performance, a direct comparison on power outputs is always confounded by the stochastic effect of weather inputs. It is therefore crucial to control for the weather and environmental influence. Toward that objective, our study proposes an energy decomposition approach. We start with comparing the change in the total energy production and refer to the change in total energy as delta energy. On this delta energy, we apply our decomposition method, which is to separate the portion of energy change due to weather effects from that due to the turbine itself. We derive a set of mathematical relationships allowing us to perform this decomposition and examine the credibility and robustness of the proposed decomposition approach through extensive cross‐validation and case studies. We then apply the decomposition approach to Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition data associated with several wind turbines to which leading‐edge protection was carried out. Our study shows that the leading‐edge protection applied on blades may cause a small decline to the power production efficiency in the short term, although we expect the leading‐edge protection to benefit the blade's reliability in the long term.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1741173
- PAR ID:
- 10446183
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Wind Energy
- Volume:
- 25
- Issue:
- 7
- ISSN:
- 1095-4244
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: p. 1203-1221
- Size(s):
- p. 1203-1221
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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