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This study investigates the resilience of informally-constructed light-frame timber houses in Puerto Rico, a region where households with limited resources face significant risks from climate hazards, notably hurricanes. This study conducts a component-based, performance-based wind engineering assessment of informally-constructed house typologies, defined based on extensive fieldwork, under both existing and projected future climate conditions. Key findings highlight the effectiveness of certain mitigation strategies, such as reinforcing roof-to-wall connections, in significantly reducing the probability of failure. Fully-mitigated cases, which involve applying mitigation measures to the roof envelope, roof-to-wall connections, and shear walls, exhibited annual probabilities of failure that are much closer to, but do not necessarily meet, the threshold targeted by American building standards (i.e., ASCE 7). The results also show a dramatic increase in probability of failure of these houses projected by the adopted climate change model scenarios, driven by the increased frequency and intensity of hurricanes in Puerto Rico. Results from feedback from those working in the informal construction sector also identify challenges hindering the effective implementation of mitigation measures in Puerto Rican communities, including a lack of knowledge about how to implement the mitigation strategies and barriers related to real and perceived costs. Taken together these results underscore the urgent need for changes in building practices and revising building standards and suggesting potentially feasible mitigation strategies to improve those practices.
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This content will become publicly available on January 1, 2026
Future-Proofing Energy Infrastructure: Power Grid Risk Assessment
Abstract Climate-change-imposed challenges in the form of heightened frequency and intensity of weather events exert additional pressure on securing the imperative continuous and reliable power supply, leading to increased power outages. This research proposes a comprehensive framework for enhancing the resilience of electric power networks (EPNs) through reliability-based risk assessment, promoting predictions and proactive decisions. The presented research discusses weather phenomena, their association with climate change, and their projected impacts. The numerical weather prediction model, WRF 3.4.1, with a 4 km resolution cell grid, gives a more accurate projection of high winds’ frequency and intensity. The simulation period from 2086 to 2099 is based on a reference control period spanning from 2000 to 2013, with adjustments made to background conditions using climate model output consistent with projections for the late century, a pseudo-global warming (PGW) technique. The presented research focuses on the wooden power distribution poles. The reliability assessment approach employs fragility development and analysis against wind scenarios through advanced modeling techniques and statistical analysis used to mimic historical and projected wind scenarios and to allow numerous factors on both the demand and capacity sides and their inherent uncertainties to be considered. The annual probability of failure is obtained by performing a mathematical convolution of the fragility and the hazard curves, showing the reflection of the effects of climate change on the annual probability of failure. Scaling these results to a system-level resilience assessment will facilitate the flexible energy design strategies integration and allow smoother net-zero standards incorporation and adaptation to the changing environmental conditions. This understanding will allow the decision-makers to evaluate the critical locations within a distribution line and plan to address the vulnerabilities by hardening the assets or implementing modern microgrid techniques or distributed energy resource integration.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2429602
- PAR ID:
- 10638074
- Publisher / Repository:
- Springer Nature Switzerland
- Date Published:
- ISSN:
- 2366-2557
- ISBN:
- 978-3-031-69625-1
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1125 to 1136
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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