We present a comprehensive, configurable open-source software framework for estimating the rate of electromagnetic detection of kilonovae (KNe) associated with gravitational wave detections of binary neutron star (BNS) mergers. We simulate the current LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) observing run (O4) using current sensitivity and uptime values as well as using predicted sensitivites for the next observing run (O5). We find the number of discoverable kilonovae during LVK O4 to be ${ 1}_{- 1}^{+ 4}$ or ${ 2 }_{- 2 }^{+ 3 }$, (at 90 per cent confidence) depending on the distribution of NS masses in coalescing binaries, with the number increasing by an order of magnitude during O5 to ${ 19 }_{- 11 }^{+ 24 }$. Regardless of mass model, we predict at most five detectable KNe (at 95 per cent confidence) in O4. We also produce optical and near-infrared light curves that correspond to the physical properties of each merging system. We have collated important information for allocating observing resources for search and follow-up observations, including distributions of peak magnitudes in several broad-bands and time-scales for which specific facilities can detect each KN. The framework is easily adaptable, and new simulations can quickly be produced in response to updated information such as refined merger rates and NS mass distributions. Finally, we compare our suite of simulations to the thus-far completed portion of O4 (as of 2023, October 14), finding a median number of discoverable KNe of 0 and a 95 percentile upper limit of 2, consistent with no detections so far in O4.
We perform a comparative analysis of nucleosynthesis yields from binary neutron star (BNS) mergers, black hole-neutron star (BHNS) mergers, and core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe) with the goal of determining which are the most dominant sources of r-process enrichment observed in stars. We find that BNS and BHNS binaries may eject similar mass distributions of robust r-process nuclei post-merger (up to third peak and actinides, A ∼ 200−240), after accounting for the volumetric event rates. Magnetorotational (MR) CCSNe likely undergo a weak r-process (up to A ∼ 140) and contribute to the production of light element primary process (LEPP) nuclei, whereas typical thermal, neutrino-driven CCSNe only synthesize up to first r-process peak nuclei (A ∼ 80−90). We also find that the upper limit to the rate of MR CCSNe is $\lesssim 1~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ the rate of typical thermal CCSNe; if the rate was higher, then weak r-process nuclei would be overproduced. Although the largest uncertainty is from the volumetric event rate, the prospects are encouraging for confirming these rates in the next few years with upcoming surveys. Using a simple model to estimate the resulting kilonova light curve from mergers and our set of fiducial merger parameters, we predict that ∼7 BNS and ∼2 BHNS events will be detectable per year by the Vera C. Rubin Observatory (LSST), with prior gravitational wave (GW) triggers.
more » « less- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10446345
- Publisher / Repository:
- Oxford University Press
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
- Volume:
- 525
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 0035-8711
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 2040-2052
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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