Abstract Precipitation amount (A), frequency (F), intensity (I), and duration (D) are important properties of precipitation, but their estimates are sensitive to data resolution. This study investigates this resolution dependence, and the influences of different model physics, by analyzing simulations by the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) version 4 (CAM4) and version 5 (CAM5) with varying grid sizes from ~0.25 to 2.0°. Results show that both CAM4 and CAM5 greatly overestimate F and D but underestimate I at all resolutions, despite realistic A. These biases partly result from too much parameterized (convective) precipitation with high F and D but low I. Different cloud microphysics schemes contribute to the precipitation differences between CAM4 and CAM5. The A, F, I, and D of convective and nonconvective precipitation react differently to grid‐size decreases, leading to the large decreases in F and D but increases in the I for total precipitation as model resolution increases. This resolution dependence results from the increased probability of precipitation over a larger area (area aggregation effect, which is smaller than in observations) and the varying performance of model physics under changing resolution (model adjustment effect), which roughly enhances the aggregation‐induced dependence. Finer grid sizes not only increase resolved precipitation, which has higher intensity and thus improves overall precipitation intensity in CAM, but also reduce the area aggregation effect. Thus, the long‐standingdrizzlingproblem in climate models may be mitigated by increasing model resolution and modifying model physics to suppress parameterized convective precipitation and enhance resolved nonconvective precipitation.
more »
« less
The Convective‐To‐Total Precipitation Ratio and the “Drizzling” Bias in Climate Models
Abstract Overestimation of precipitation frequency and duration while underestimating intensity, that is, the “drizzling” bias, has been a long‐standing problem of global climate models. Here we explore this issue from the perspective of precipitation partitioning. We found that most models in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) have high convective‐to‐total precipitation (PC/PR) ratios in low latitudes. Convective precipitation has higher frequency and longer duration but lower intensity than non‐convective precipitation in many models. As a result, the high PC/PR ratio contributes to the “drizzling” bias over low latitudes. The PC/PR ratio and associated “drizzling” bias increase as model resolution coarsens from 0.5° to 2.0°, but the resolution's effect weakens as the grid spacing increases from 2.0° to 3.0°. Some of the CMIP6 models show reduced “drizzling” bias associated with decreased PC/PR ratio. Thus, more reasonable precipitation partitioning, along with finer model resolution should alleviate the “drizzling” bias within current climate models.
more »
« less
- PAR ID:
- 10448322
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
- Volume:
- 126
- Issue:
- 16
- ISSN:
- 2169-897X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
null (Ed.)Abstract Light–moderate precipitation is projected to decrease whereas heavy precipitation may increase under greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced global warming, while atmospheric convective available potential energy (CAPE) over most of the globe and convective inhibition (CIN) over land are projected to increase. The underlying processes for these precipitation changes are not fully understood. Here, projected precipitation changes are analyzed using 3-hourly data from simulations by a fully coupled climate model, and their link to the CAPE and CIN changes is examined. The model approximately captures the spatial patterns in the mean precipitation frequencies and the significant correlation between the precipitation frequencies or intensity and CAPE over most of the globe or CIN over tropical oceans seen in reanalysis, and it projects decreased light–moderate precipitation (0.01 < P ≤ 1 mm h −1 ) but increased heavy precipitation ( P > 1 mm h −1 ) in a warmer climate. Results show that most of the light–moderate precipitation events occur under low-CAPE and/or low-CIN conditions, which are projected to decrease greatly in a warmer climate as increased temperature and humidity shift many of such cases into moderate–high CAPE or CIN cases. This results in large decreases in the light–moderate precipitation events. In contrast, increases in heavy precipitation result primarily from its increased probability under given CAPE and CIN, with a secondary contribution from the CAPE/CIN frequency changes. The increased probability for heavy precipitation partly results from a shift of the precipitation histogram toward higher intensity that could result from a uniform percentage increase in precipitation intensity due to increased water vapor in a warmer climate.more » « less
-
Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are filaments of enhanced horizontal moisture transport in the atmosphere. Due to their prominent role in the meridional moisture transport and regional weather extremes, ARs have been studied extensively in recent years. Yet, the representations of ARs and their associated precipitation on a global scale remains largely unknown. In this study, we developed an AR detection algorithm specifically for satellite observations using moisture and the geostrophic winds derived from 3D geopotential height field from the combined retrievals of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder and the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit on NASA Aqua satellite. This algorithm enables us to develop the first global AR catalog based solely on satellite observations. The satellite‐based AR catalog is then combined with the satellite‐based precipitation (Integrated Muti‐SatellitE Retrievals for GPM) to evaluate the representations of ARs and AR‐induced precipitation in reanalysis products. Our results show that the spreads in AR frequency and AR length distribution are generally small across data sets, while the spread in AR width is relatively larger. Reanalysis products are found to consistently underestimate both mean and extreme AR‐related precipitation. However, all reanalyses tend to precipitate too often under AR conditions, especially over low latitude regions. This finding is consistent with the “drizzling” bias which has plagued generations of climate models. Overall, the findings of this study can help to improve the representations of ARs and associated precipitation in reanalyses and climate models.more » « less
-
Abstract Elevated mixed layers (EMLs) influence the severe convective storm climatology in the contiguous United States (CONUS), playing an important role in the initiation, sustenance, and suppression of storms. This study creates a high-resolution climatology of the EML to analyze variability and potential changes in EML frequency and characteristics for the first time. An objective algorithm is applied to ERA5 to detect EMLs, defined in part as layers of steep lapse rates (≥8.0°C km−1) at least 200 hPa thick, in the CONUS and northern Mexico from 1979 to 2021. EMLs are most frequent over the Great Plains in spring and summer, with a standard deviation of 4–10 EML days per year highlighting sizable interannual variability. Mean convective inhibition associated with the EML’s capping inversion suggests many EMLs prohibit convection, although—like nearly all EML characteristics—there is considerable spread and notable seasonal variability. In the High Plains, statistically significant increases in EML days (4–5 more days per decade) coincide with warmer EML bases and steeper EML lapse rates, driven by warming and drying in the low levels of the western CONUS during the study period. Additionally, increases in EML base temperatures result in significantly more EML-related convective inhibition over the Great Plains, which may continue to have implications for convective storm frequency, intensity, severe perils, and precipitation if this trend persists. Significance StatementElevated mixed layers (EMLs) play a role in the spatiotemporal frequency of severe convective storms and precipitation across the contiguous United States and northern Mexico. This research creates a detailed EML climatology from a modern reanalysis dataset to uncover patterns and potential changes in EML frequency and associated meteorological characteristics. EMLs are most common over the Great Plains in spring and summer, but show significant variability year-to-year. Robust increases in the number of days with EMLs have occurred since 1979 across the High Plains. Lapse rates associated with EMLs have trended steeper, in part due to warmer EML base temperatures. This has resulted in increasing EML convective inhibition, which has important implications for regional climate.more » « less
-
Abstract Although the intensity of extreme precipitation is predicted to increase with climate warming, at the weather scale precipitation extremes over most of the globe decrease when temperature exceeds a certain threshold, and the spatial extent of this negative scaling is projected to increase as the climate warms. The nature and cause of the negative scaling at high temperature and its implications remain poorly understood. Based on sub-daily data from observations, reanalysis data, and output from a coarse-resolution (∼200 km) global model and a fine-resolution (4 km) convection-permitting regional model, we show that the negative scaling is primarily a reflection of high temperature suppressing precipitation over land and storm-induced temperature variation over the ocean. We further identify the high temperature-induced increase of saturation deficit as a critical condition for the negative scaling of extreme precipitation over land. Large saturation deficit reduces precipitation intensity by slowing down the convective updraft condensation rate and accelerating condensate evaporation. The heat-induced suppression of precipitation, both for its mean and extremes, provides one mechanism for the co-occurrence of drought and heatwaves. As the saturation deficit over land is expected to increase in a warmer climate, our results imply a growing prevalence of negative scaling, potentially increasing the frequency of compound drought and heat events. Understanding the physical mechanisms underlying the negative scaling of precipitation at high temperature is, therefore, essential for assessing future risks of extreme events, including not only flood due to extreme precipitation but also drought and heatwaves.more » « less
An official website of the United States government
