Past studies based on univariate scaling analyses at the weather time scale documented a negative scaling of extreme precipitation intensity (EPI), which prevents EPI extrapolation from past climate. Here we present a bivariate scaling analysis and show that, contrary to the univariate scaling results, EPI monotonically increases with temperature and shows no negative scaling when controlled for saturation deficit. The observed EPI‐temperature relationship in saturated atmosphere is surprisingly similar among different regions and closely follows the Clausius‐Clapeyron scaling; climate models produce greater regional dependence of the scaling relationship with a wide range of scaling rate. For extratropical regions, the model‐simulated EPI‐temperature relationship under saturation shows a past‐to‐future continuity, which could potentially support extrapolation to a warmer climate. The scaling at saturation bridges the EPI‐temperature relationship between weather and climate time scales and may enable potential prediction of future precipitation extremes via extrapolation from past observations.
- Award ID(s):
- 1659953
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10346839
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Climate
- ISSN:
- 0894-8755
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1 to 37
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0142.1
