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Tropical easterly waves (TEWs) are westward-moving waves often within trade winds but occur ubiquitously in the tropics and play a significant role in the genesis of tropical cyclones (TCs). They are well-known as primary precursors of TCs in the Atlantic, yet their global relationship with TCs has been less explored. This study, for the first time, presents the global distribution of TEW activity using a combined thermodynamic and dynamic framework based on 6-hourly Outgoing Longwave Radiation and curvature vorticity. We then demonstrate that TEWs play a dominant role in approximately 22–71% of global TC genesis, with their highest impacts in the North Atlantic (71%) and Western Pacific (54%). We further identify that TEWs, in their general coupling with TC genesis dynamics, act to intensify TC convection and vorticity in all TC main development regions, albeit the vorticity enhancement is relatively weaker in the North Atlantic. To understand the cross-basin differences in this general TEW-TC relationship, we further investigated background conditions for TC genesis in each basin and found an additional dry environment constraint in the Atlantic TC genesis, yet still delineating the critical role of TEWs in TC development.
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Evolving Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the North Atlantic in a Warming Climate
Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) track characteristics in a changing climate remain uncertain. Here, we investigate the genesis, tracks, and termination of >35,000 synthetic TCs traveling within 250 km of New York City (NYC) from the pre‐industrial era (850–1800 CE) to the modern era (1970–2005 CE) to the future (2080–2100 CE). Under a very high‐emissions scenario (RCP8.5), TCs are more likely to form closer to the United States (U.S.) southeast coast (>15% increase), terminate in the northeastern Atlantic (>6% increase), and move most slowly along the U.S. Atlantic coast (>15% increase) from the pre‐industrial to future. Under our modeled scenarios, TCs are more likely to travel within 100 km of Boston, MA, USA (p = 0.01) and Norfolk, VA, USA (p = 0.05) than within 100 km of NYC in the future. We identify reductions in the time between genesis and the time when TCs come within 100 km of NYC, Boston, or Norfolk, as well as increased duration of TC impacts from individual storms at all three cities in the future.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1663807
- PAR ID:
- 10448395
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Earth's Future
- Volume:
- 9
- Issue:
- 12
- ISSN:
- 2328-4277
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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