Abstract. Climate warming will cause mountain snowpacks to melt earlier, reducing summer streamflow and threatening water supplies and ecosystems. Quantifying how sensitive streamflow timing is to climate change and where it is most sensitive remain key questions. Physically based hydrological models are often used for this purpose; however, they have embedded assumptions that translate into uncertain hydrological projections that need to be quantified and constrained to provide reliable inferences. The purpose of this study is to evaluate differences in projected end-of-century changes to streamflow timing between a new empirical model based on diel (daily) streamflow cycles and regional land surface simulations across the mountainous western USA. We develop an observational technique for detecting streamflow responses to snowmelt using diel cycles of incoming solar radiation and streamflow to detect when snowmelt occurs. We measure the date of the 20th percentile of snowmelt days (DOS20) across 31 western USA watersheds affected by snow, as a proxy for the beginning of snowmelt-initiated streamflow. Historic DOS20 varies from mid-January to late May among our sites, with warmer basins having earlier snowmelt-mediated streamflow. Mean annual DOS20 strongly correlates with the dates of 25 % and 50 % annual streamflow volume (DOQ25 and DOQ50, both R2=0.85), suggesting that a 1 d earlier DOS20 corresponds with a 1 d earlier DOQ25 and 0.7 d earlier DOQ50. Empirical projections of future DOS20 based on a stepwise multiple linear regression across sites and years under the RCP8.5 scenario for the late 21st century show that DOS20 will occur on average 11±4 d earlier per 1 ∘C of warming. However, DOS20 in colder watersheds (mean November–February air temperature, TNDJF<-8 ∘C) is on average 70 % more sensitive to climate change than in warmer watersheds (TNDJF>0 ∘C). Moreover, empirical projections of DOQ25 and DOQ50 based on DOS20 are about four and two times more sensitive to climate change, respectively, than those simulated by a state-of-the-art land surface model (NoahMP-WRF) under the same scenario. Given the importance of changes in streamflow timing for water resources, and the significant discrepancies found in projected streamflow sensitivity, snowmelt detection methods such as DOS20 based on diel streamflow cycles may help to constrain model parameters, improve hydrological predictions, and inform process understanding.
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The Counteracting Effects of Snowmelt Rate and Timing on Runoff
The declining mountain snowpack is expected to melt earlier and more slowly with climate warming. Previous work indicates that lower snowmelt rates are associated with decreased runoff. However, earlier snowmelt could increase runoff via lower vegetation water use in early spring. The relative importance of these factors with regard to runoff is linked to site‐specific conditions such as plant available water storage (PAWS) and energy availability. To disentangle the effects of snowmelt rate and timing on runoff production, we conducted a hydrologic modeling experiment at sites in Colorado (NR1) and California (P301) that controlled for snowmelt rate and timing multicollinearity. We tested the sensitivity of snowmelt season potential runoff (
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10449776
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Water Resources Research
- Volume:
- 56
- Issue:
- 8
- ISSN:
- 0043-1397
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Climate change projections consistently demonstrate that warming temperatures and dwindling seasonal snowpack will elicit cascading effects on ecosystem function and water resource availability. Despite this consensus, little is known about potential changes in the variability of ecohydrological conditions, which is also required to inform climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. Considering potential changes in ecohydrological variability is critical to evaluating the emergence of trends, assessing the likelihood of extreme events such as floods and droughts, and identifying when tipping points may be reached that fundamentally alter ecohydrological function. Using a single-model Large Ensemble with sophisticated terrestrial ecosystem representation, we characterize projected changes in the mean state and variability of ecohydrological processes in historically snow-dominated regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Widespread snowpack reductions, earlier snowmelt timing, longer growing seasons, drier soils, and increased fire risk are projected for this century under a high-emissions scenario. In addition to these changes in the mean state, increased variability in winter snowmelt will increase growing-season water deficits and increase the stochasticity of runoff. Thus, with warming, declining snowpack loses its dependable buffering capacity so that runoff quantity and timing more closely reflect the episodic characteristics of precipitation. This results in a declining predictability of annual runoff from maximum snow water equivalent, which has critical implications for ecosystem stress and water resource management. Our results suggest that there is a strong likelihood of pervasive alterations to ecohydrological function that may be expected with climate change.more » « less
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Abstract Climate change threatens water resources in snowmelt‐dependent regions by altering the fraction of snow and rain and spurring an earlier snowmelt season. The bulk of hydrological research has focused on forecasting response in streamflow volumes and timing to a shrinking snowpack; however, the degree to which subsurface storage offsets the loss of snow storage in various alpine geologic settings, i.e. the hydrogeologic buffering capacity, is still largely unknown. We address this research need by assessing the affects of climate change on storage and runoff generation for two distinct hydrogeologic settings present in alpine systems: a low storage granitic and a greater storage volcanic hillslope. We use a physically based integrated hydrologic model fully coupled to a land surface model to run a base scenario and then three progressive warming scenarios, and account for the shifts in each component of the water budget. For hillslopes with greater water retention, the larger storage volcanic hillslope buffered streamflow volumes and timing, but at the cost of greater reductions in groundwater storage relative to the low storage granite hillslope. We found that the results were highly sensitive to the unsaturated zone retention parameters, which in the case of alpine systems can be a mix of matrix or fracture flow. The presence of fractures and thus less retention in the unsaturated zone significantly decreased the reduction in recharge and runoff for the volcanic hillslope in climate warming scenarios. This approach highlights the importance of incorporating physically based subsurface flow in to alpine hydrology models, and our findings provide ways forward to arrive at a conceptual model that is both consistent with geology and hydrologic principles. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Abstract Analysis of measured evapotranspiration shows that subsurface plant‐accessible water storage (PAWS) can sustain evapotranspiration through multiyear dry periods. Measurements at 25 flux tower sites in the semiarid western United States, distributed across five land cover types, show both resistance and vulnerability to multiyear dry periods. Average (±standard deviation) evapotranspiration ranged from 660 ± 230 mm yr−1(October–September) in evergreen needleleaf forests to 310 ± 200 mm yr−1in grasslands and shrublands. More than 52% of the annual evapotranspiration in Mediterranean climates is supported on average by seasonal drawdown of subsurface PAWS, versus 29% in monsoon‐influenced climates. Snowmelt replenishes dry‐season PAWS by as much as 20% at sites with significant seasonal snow accumulation but was insignificant at most sites. Evapotranspiration exceeded precipitation in more than half of the observation years at sites below 35°N. Annual evapotranspiration at non‐energy‐limited sites increased with precipitation, reaching a mean wet‐year evapotranspiration of 833 mm for evergreen needleleaf forests, 861 mm for mixed forests, 558 mm for woody savannas, 367 mm for grasslands, and 254 mm for shrublands. Thirteen sites experienced at least one multiyear dry period, when mean precipitation was more than one standard deviation below the historical mean. All vegetation types except evergreen needleleaf forests responded to multiyear dry periods by lowering evapotranspiration and/or significant year‐over‐year depletion of subsurface PAWS. Sites maintained wet‐year evapotranspiration rates for 8–33 months before attenuation, with a corresponding net PAWS drawdown of as much as 334 mm. Net drawdown at many sites continued until the dry period ended, resulting in an overall cumulative withdrawal of as much as 558 mm. Evergreen needleleaf forests maintained high evapotranspiration during multiyear dry periods with no apparent PAWS drawdown; these forests currently avoid drought but may prove vulnerable to longer and warmer dry periods that reduce snowpack storage and accelerate evapotranspiration.
