Abstract. Recent earth system models predict a 10 %–20 % decrease in particulate organic carbon export from the surface ocean by the end of the21st century due to global climate change. This decline is mainly caused by increased stratification of the upper ocean, resulting in reducedshallow subsurface nutrient concentrations and a slower supply of nutrients to the surface euphotic zone in low latitudes. These predictions,however, do not typically account for associated changes in remineralization depths driven by sinking-particle size. Here we combinesatellite-derived export and particle size maps with a simple 3-D global biogeochemical model that resolves dynamic particle size distributions toinvestigate how shifts in particle size may buffer or amplify predicted changes in surface nutrient supply and therefore export production. We showthat higher export rates are empirically correlated with larger sinking particles and presumably larger phytoplankton, particularly in tropical andsubtropical regions. Incorporating these empirical relationships into our global model shows that as circulation slows, a decrease in export isassociated with a shift towards smaller particles, which sink more slowly and are thus remineralized shallower. This shift towards shallowerremineralization in turn leads to greater recycling of nutrients in the upper water column and thus faster nutrient recirculation into the euphoticzone. The end result is a boost in productivity and export that counteracts the initial circulation-driven decreases. This negative feedbackmechanism (termed the particle-size–remineralization feedback) slows export decline over the next century by ∼ 14 % globally (from −0.29to −0.25 GtC yr−1) and by ∼ 20 % in the tropical and subtropical oceans, where export decreases are currently predicted tobe greatest. Our findings suggest that to more accurately predict changes in biological pump strength under a warming climate, earth system modelsshould include dynamic particle-size-dependent remineralization depths.
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Bentho‐Pelagic Decoupling: The Marine Biological Carbon Pump During Eocene Hyperthermals
Future environmental change may profoundly affect oceanic ecosystems in a complex way, due to the synergy between rising temperatures, reduction in mixing and upwelling due to enhanced stratification, ocean acidification, and associated biogeochemical dynamics. Changes in primary productivity, in export of organic carbon from the surface ocean, and in remineralization deeper in the water column in the so‐called “twilight zone” may substantially alter the marine biological carbon pump, thus carbon storage in the oceans. We present different proxy records commonly used for reconstructing paleoproductivity, and re‐evaluate their use for understanding dynamic change within and between different constituents of the marine biological pump during transient global warming episodes in the past. Marine pelagic barite records are a proxy for carbon export from the photic and/or mesopelagic zone, and are not positively correlated with benthic foraminiferal proxies for arrival of organic matter to the seafloor over three early Eocene periods of global warming (Ocean Drilling Program Site 1263, SE Atlantic). These two proxies reflect processes in different parts of the water column, thus different components of the biological pump. An increase in temperature‐dependent organic carbon remineralization in the water column would have caused decreased arrival of food at the seafloor, starving the benthic biota and explaining the differences between the proxies, and may have led to ocean deoxygenation. Carbon cycle modeling demonstrates the feasibility of enhanced water‐column remineralization to explain both Site 1263 records, suggesting that this mechanism amplifies
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10450681
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology
- Volume:
- 36
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 2572-4517
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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