Predictions of hydrologic variables across the entire water cycle have significant value for water resources management as well as downstream applications such as ecosystem and water quality modeling. Recently, purely data‐driven deep learning models like long short‐term memory (LSTM) showed seemingly insurmountable performance in modeling rainfall runoff and other geoscientific variables, yet they cannot predict untrained physical variables and remain challenging to interpret. Here, we show that differentiable, learnable, process‐based models (called
Differentiable Model Selection for Ensemble Learning
Model selection is a strategy aimed at creating accurate and robust models by identifying the optimal model for classifying any particular input sample. This paper proposes a novel framework for differentiable selection of groups of models by integrating machine learning and combinatorial optimization.The framework is tailored for ensemble learning with a strategy that learns to combine the predictions of appropriately selected pre-trained ensemble models. It does so by modeling the ensemble learning task as a differentiable selection program trained end-to-end over a pretrained ensemble to optimize task performance. The proposed framework demonstrates its versatility and effectiveness, outperforming conventional and advanced consensus rules across a variety of classification tasks.
more » « less- PAR ID:
- 10451190
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1954 to 1962
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract δ models here) can approach the performance level of LSTM for the intensively observed variable (streamflow) with regionalized parameterization. We use a simple hydrologic model HBV as the backbone and use embedded neural networks, which can only be trained in a differentiable programming framework, to parameterize, enhance, or replace the process‐based model's modules. Without using an ensemble or post‐processor,δ models can obtain a median Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.732 for 671 basins across the USA for the Daymet forcing data set, compared to 0.748 from a state‐of‐the‐art LSTM model with the same setup. For another forcing data set, the difference is even smaller: 0.715 versus 0.722. Meanwhile, the resulting learnable process‐based models can output a full set of untrained variables, for example, soil and groundwater storage, snowpack, evapotranspiration, and baseflow, and can later be constrained by their observations. Both simulated evapotranspiration and fraction of discharge from baseflow agreed decently with alternative estimates. The general framework can work with models with various process complexity and opens up the path for learning physics from big data. -
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Conference Paper:
- https://doi.org/10.24963/ijcai.2023/217
