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South American (SA) societies are highly vulnerable to droughts and pluvials, but lack of long-term climate observations severely limits our understanding of the global processes driving climatic variability in the region. The number and quality of SA climate-sensitive tree ring chronologies have significantly increased in recent decades, now providing a robust network of 286 records for characterizing hydroclimate variability since 1400 CE. We combine this network with a self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) dataset to derive the South American Drought Atlas (SADA) over the continent south of 12°S. The gridded annual reconstruction of austral summer scPDSI is the most spatially complete estimate of SA hydroclimate to date, and well matches past historical dry/wet events. Relating the SADA to the Australia–New Zealand Drought Atlas, sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure fields, we determine that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) are strongly associated with spatially extended droughts and pluvials over the SADA domain during the past several centuries. SADA also exhibits more extended severe droughts and extreme pluvials since the mid-20th century. Extensive droughts are consistent with the observed 20th-century trend toward positive SAM anomalies concomitant with the weakening of midlatitude Westerlies, while low-level moisture transport intensified by global warming has favored extreme rainfall across the subtropics. The SADA thus provides a long-term context for observed hydroclimatic changes and for 21st-century Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections that suggest SA will experience more frequent/severe droughts and rainfall events as a consequence of increasing greenhouse gas emissions.
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Hydroclimatic variability in Santiago (Chile) since the 16th century
Abstract The long‐term hydroclimatic variability in Santiago (Chile) was analysed by means of a new 481‐year (1536–2016 CE) tree‐ring reconstruction of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) of August, integrating the hydroclimatic conditions during the preceding 14 months. Results show a high frequency of extreme drought events in the late 20th and early 21st centuries, while the frequency of extreme wet events was higher in the 17th–18th centuries. The mid‐20th century represents a breaking point for the hydroclimatic history in the region, including some significant changes: (a) the interannual variability increased; (b) the wet events became less intense; (c) the extreme dry events became more frequent; and (d) the most intense dry event of the entire period was identified, coinciding with the so‐called Megadrought (2006–2016). A correlation analysis between the reconstructed SPEI and three climate indices (PDO, SOI and Niño3.4) was performed at monthly scale, considering different multi‐annual aggregations. The analysis shows diverse impacts on the hydroclimatic variability, with positive correlations between SPEI and PDO as well as Niño3.4, and negative correlations between SPEI and SOI. The most significant correlations were, overall, found at multi‐annual time scales (>7 years). Results help to better understand the current hydroclimatic changes (Megadrought) in a long‐term context.
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- PAR ID:
- 10454470
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- International Journal of Climatology
- Volume:
- 41
- Issue:
- S1
- ISSN:
- 0899-8418
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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