Using a global ocean biogeochemistry model, we examined three drivers of global ocean production C:N:P ratio: flexible phytoplankton stoichiometry, phytoplankton community composition, and regional production shifts. For a middle-of-the-road warming scenario (SSP2), the model predicts a substantial increase in the global export C:P ratio from 113:1 to 119:1 by the year 2100. The most important physiological driver of this stoichiometric change is the effect of the worldwide warming on cyanobacteria, followed by the effect of phosphate depletion on eukaryotes in the Southern Ocean. Also, there is a modest global shift in the phytoplankton community in favor of cyanobacteria at the expense of eukaryotes with a minimal effect on the global production stoichiometry. We find that shifts in the regional production, even in the absence of any change in phytoplankton stoichiometry or taxonomy, can change the global production C:N:P ratio. For example, enhancing the production in the polar waters, which typically have low C:N:P ratios, will have the effect of lowering the global ratio. In our model, the retreat of Antarctic sea ice has this very effect but is offset by production changes downstream and elsewhere. This study thus provides an understanding of how regional production changes can affect the global production C:N:P ratio. However, the current literature indicates substantial uncertainty in the future projections of regional production changes, so it is unclear at this time what their net effect is on the global production C:N:P ratio. Finally, our model predicts that the overall increase in the carbon content of organic matter due to flexible C:N:P ratio helps to stabilize carbon export in the face of reduced nutrient export (i.e. the decrease in C export is ~30% smaller than expected from the decrease in P export by 2100) but has a minimal effect on atmospheric CO2uptake (~1%).
Modern observations indicate that variations in marine phytoplankton stoichiometry correlate with the boundaries of major surface waters. For example, phytoplankton in the oligotrophic subtropical gyres typically have much higher C:N:P ratios (i.e., higher C:P and higher N:P ratios) than those in eutrophic upwelling regions and polar regions. Such a spatial pattern points to nutrient availability as a key environmental driver of stochiometric flexibility. Environmental dependence of phytoplankton C:N:P opens unexplored possibilities for modifying the strength of the biological pump under different climate conditions. Here we present a power law formulation of C:N:P flexibility that is driven by nutrients, temperature, and light. We embed the formulation in a global ocean carbon cycle model with multiple phytoplankton types and explore biogeochemical implications under glacial conditions. We find three key controls on export C:N:P ratio: phytoplankton physiology and community structure as well as the balance in regional production at the global level. Glacial inputs of iron and sea ice expansion are important modifiers of these three controls. We also find that global export C:N:P increases substantially under glacial conditions, and this strongly buffers global carbon export against decrease and draws down approximately 20 μatm of atmospheric CO2. These results point to the importance of including phytoplankton C:N:P flexibility in a mix of mechanisms that drive atmospheric CO2over glacial‐interglacial time scale. Finally, our simulations indicate decoupling of nutrients, which may provide a resolution to the longstanding disagreement regarding nutrient utilization in the glacial Southern Ocean derived from different nutrient proxies.
more » « less- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10456215
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology
- Volume:
- 35
- Issue:
- 7
- ISSN:
- 2572-4517
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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